Boca Raton, FL—The Florida Atlantic Owls have had a rough start to the college football season. A close game against Michigan State led fans to believe the team was ready to compete at a national level. However, two drubbings from Army and UConn have now assured them that things aren’t great in paradise. In fact, one could point to hubris after winning the Shula Bowl as to why the team came out so flat against the Huskies in Week 4.
Thankfully, the team bounced back with a 41-10 victory against Wagner, putting them at 2-3 on the season thus far.
With the Owls on their bye, we’ll dive into the good, the bad, and the ugly so far for FAU this season.
Disclaimer: I did not create the stats used in this article. At times, I may disagree with the stats, but they can’t be completely discredited.
Is a change needed at quarterback?
Quarterback Cam Fancher has had a difficult start to the season. He’s only thrown two touchdowns to five interceptions with a 59.6 completion percentage, which is tied for 33rd-worst in the FBS per PFF, (min. 100 drop backs) among 108 quarterbacks. When adjusting his completion percentage, Fancher’s 71.8 rate is 49th-worst in the FBS.
Yet the bigger problem is the lack of shots taken downfield and the lack of execution. At 3.10 seconds, Fancher is tied for the eighth-most time to throw among all quarterbacks. However, he’s taken next to no shots downfield, with a 2.5 Big Time Throw percentage (tied for 21st-lowest in FBS). Part of that can be explained by a lack of separation or play calling. However, some of that falls on Fancher, too.
Entering the bye, Fancher’s 680 passing yards are 15th-worst in the nation. Wide receiver Omari Hayes makes up nearly 41.47 percent of those yards (282). Marlyn Johnson is the only other wide receiver with more than 50 yards receiving thus far.
The only other quarterback who has taken “real” snaps under center this season for Florida Atlantic is freshman Kasen Weisman. And Weisman may not be ready to play in a starting role – at least not yet – given his performance against Wagner.
That leaves the Florida Atlantic football team in a difficult situation. Yet while Fancher can’t (and shouldn’t) shoulder the entire blame for the offensive struggles, something needs to change. The offenses’ dropback EPA per play ranks third-worst in the AAC, and 116th overall (among 136 qualifiers).
FAU needs to take more shots downfield, and scheme these players open to do so. Meanwhile, Fancher needs to take shots in these one-on-one opportunities, and make the correct reads.
A double-headed monster at running back
One of the bright spots on the Florida Atlantic offense has been their ability to run the football. Fancher has also played a large role in the rushing attack, securing 250 yards with 5.7 yards per attempt. Yet it’s Zuberi Mobley and C.J. Campbell introduce a dynamic one-two punch at the running back position. The offensive line has vastly improved as a unit, now ranking 18th nationally with a 74.1 grade.
Mobley has proven to be more of a finesse runner, who has issues when the blocking isn’t there. However, he’s averaging a respectable 5.6 YPC with 307 yards and four touchdowns. With that said, taking away his 72-yard touchdown against FIU (where a missed TFL helped spur the run), then Mobley’s YPC drops to 4.35, which is in the back-end among qualifying running backs (min. 100 attempts).
Meanwhile, Campbell has proven he could be the perfect fit in this zone rushing attack. Blocking doesn’t seem to be an issue for Campbell, as his 3.9 yards after contact per attempt are tied for 28th nationally. That coincides with his 113 elusiveness grade, which ranks 27th among all running backs. On top of that, he leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.
While Mobley seemed to be the featured back to start the season, Campbell looks to be the better fit based on the scheme Florida Atlantic runs.
However, the rushing attack isn’t turning heads – yet. The team needs to show consistency on the ground. The team ranks 103rd in Rush EPA among 136 qualifiers, and ninth in the conference.
A one-man receiving crew?
One of the lone bright spots on the Florida Atlantic offense is wide receiver Omari Hayes, who is singlehandedly keeping the receiving room afloat.
Hayes leads the Owls in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns (tied with Jayshon Platt with one). And his 87.2 offensive grade ranks eighth among 256 qualifiers (min. 20 targets). Hayes has been dynamic for the Owls. His 4.03 yards per route ran is 10th in the nation. Yet, he’s doing well after the catch, too.
The redshirt sophomore averages 7.7 yards after the catch, ranking in the 84th percentile among qualifiers. This may be due to his aDOT, which is 82nd worst in the nation at 9.5 yards. Hayes is quickly proving to be one of the best slot receivers in the nation.
Among 162 qualifying slot receivers, Hayes’ 93.0 grade ranks second. On top of that, his 4.47 yards per routes ran rank sixth. Despite that, Hayes only has the sixth-most passing snaps among skill position players on Florida Atlantic.
Frankly, that’s unacceptable. And hopefully, it’s something Herman is working on fixing during the bye week.
A weak front seven
The Florida Atlantic defense has had chameleon-like tendencies this season. As run stoppers, the line is putrid, while the back seven makes up for the deficiencies. In coverage, miscommunication and bad luck have led to varied success.
Against the run, Florida Atlantic is graded as the fifth-worst football team among FBS schools. The Owls have three of the top 11-worst graded front seven players in college football (min. 100 snaps), per PFF. The biggest cause of this have been missed tackles, where three Owls rank among the top-30 in missed tackle percentage.
Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, the secondary of the Owls have been a strength in the rushing attack. Cornerback Kahzir Brown ranks 21st among 79 cornerbacks with a 6.7 missed tackle percentage. His six stops are tied for 28th among defensive backs; while the Owls have three players among the top-50 in total stops (tied for first along with East Carolina and Dominion).
In terms of pass rush, the lack of one has been blatantly apparent for Florida Atlantic. Only Chisom Ifeanyi has a grade higher than 70.0 on the team. In fact, Ifeanyi ranks 27th nationally among front seven players (min. 50 snaps) and 22nd with a 20.6 pass rush win rate. In true pass sets, Ifeanyi has been unstoppable, ranking 10th nationally with a 40 percent win rate.
Unfortunately for Florida Atlantic, nobody else along the front seven has been able to pressure the quarterback. And that lack of pass rush success not only hinders the secondary, but allows teams to take advantage in play action situations.
Covering their backend
As they were against the run, the FAU secondary has played well in coverage. Well, at least the cornerbacks, do.
Florida Atlantic’s EPA per dropback defensively ranks second in the conference, and 54th among FBS schools. And as a unit, the team ranks 59th nationally, per PFF.
Cornerbacks Daedae Hill and Kahzir Brown have been formidable on the outside. The duo are two of only four players who rank among the highest in snaps per target (5.1 S/TGT), while allowing less than a 40.0 NFL passer rating against. Both players have also only giving up one-third of the targets thrown their way, good for 18th among 538 qualifying defensive backs.
Unfortunately, the safeties have not played as well. While their miscommunications are hard to quantify with stats, the numbers that are quantifiable don’t bode well.
Freshman C.J. Heard ranks dead last among 538 players in pass rating allowed. He’s given up seven catches on seven targets for a 158.3 rating against. And yet while Phillip Dunnam has two interceptions (and grades well per PFF), he hasn’t shown he can make stops, missing 20 percent of his tackles on pass plays.
It must be stated that the Owls’ offensive struggles have played a large role in some of the defensive struggles. However, like the rest of the Florida Atlantic football team, the defense has deficiencies of its own.
Final thoughts
On offense, the Owls must continue to be consistent in their rushing attack. Passing the ball, Florida Atlantic needs to take more shots downfield, involve more receivers, and expect better quarterback play from whoever is under center.
On defense, the front seven must secure tackles and establishing a pass rush. Meanwhile, the secondary needs to communicate better – and make stops of their own.
Accepting shortcomings and improving is how good teams rebound after rocky starts. There’s still time for the Owls to do that, but time is running out as they head into conference play.
