The smoke has cleared, and the dust has settled. We are now in the official last stages of the college football season.
First, congratulations to Travis Hunter for winning the Heisman trophy by a slightly narrow margin over Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, who had a pretty solid case for the prestigious award, too. However, the latter will play for a bigger prize in the College Football Playoff (CFP), for a potential national championship. With the field set of 12 teams, that leads to some burning questions about the playoff and what happens next.
Did the Committee get it right, and who kept themselves out?
This is a complicated question, where the answer is both yes and no. Regarding the teams that were left out, Miami has no argument.
Miami made their margin slip up very thin with too many close calls throughout the season against California and Virginia Tech before losing to Syracuse. They also missed out on the ACC title game and the chance to make one last impression on the Committee.
Similarly, Ole Miss lost to a lesser team in their conference (Florida) late in the season and didn’t deserve to make it. Where there should be some exception, however, is with Alabama making the playoff over South Carolina. Forget that Alabama won the head-to-head matchup. Once Alabama lost decisively to Oklahoma with a backup quarterback, that should have been a close case for the Crimson Tide.
Some may point to Boise State having the No. 4 seed, a first-round bye in the playoffs, and scoff. Granted, Boise State doesn’t play in a Power 4 conference. However, their near-perfect record speaks for itself. On top of that, their only loss of the season is to the No. 1 team in the bracket (Oregon) in a 37-34 loss at Autzen Stadium.
Oregon is sixth in the nation in scoring margin. Therefore, Boise State playing them in such a close game means something. You can also presume ranking in the tournament is a testament to Jeanty, who posted incredible numbers with 2497 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns.
Plus, the Broncos have an underrated defense led by edge rushers Ahmed Hassanein and Jayden Virgin-Morgan. The Committee got it right with Boise State. Beyond that, the first-round matchups are excellent choices. Overall, a reasonable selections by the Committee.
Who has the best chance for an upset in the first round?
SMU is the best possibility of an upset in the first round. Although they lost to Clemson, the heart that the Mustangs showed in coming back in that game says a lot about the team’s character, especially quarterback Kevin Jennings.
Defensively, Penn State will test them in the trenches with the Nittany Lions rushing attack, anchored by Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. However, SMU has the size in the middle of their defense to slow Penn State down. Nose tackle Anthony Booker is a mammoth inside at 351 pounds, while linebacker Kobe Wilson is a tackling machine.
For Penn State, the concern is developing a passing threat outside of Tyler Warren should SMU stop the run. Unfortunately, Penn State has had a pattern of disappointment when the odds were in their favor, which places much heat on James Franklin.
This could be splitting hairs because SMU is the 11th seed, but Franklin is 3-17 against teams ranked in the top 10, having a pattern of coming up short in games he should win. SMU will play in what will be undeniably the most hostile road environment they have faced all season, but they are built to handle it. The Mustangs can win at Beaver Stadium in the first game of the CFP.
Who wins MVP of the College Football Playoffs?
If you were to flip a coin, there’s a chance that THE Ohio State would win the CFP and Will Howard would be the frontrunner to win the MVP. At one point, Howard was viewed as a candidate to compete for the Heisman earlier this season – and he has enough help to put up gaudy numbers.
At the helm of an offense featuring Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate, Howard could have monster days in the CFP. From a thematic standpoint, Howard would also have the chance to get redemption for several letdowns for him and Ohio State.
First, they lost to Oregon in the closing seconds at Oregon. Also, they did not play in the Big 10 championship game after yet another loss versus Michigan in the final game of the regular season. His path to the title could also be through other perennial powerhouses such as Texas and Georgia.
Howard has the tools to be one of the better quarterbacks in the nation, but gets largely overshadowed by the sum of his parts. These tough games against great defenses and very good secondaries will allow him to emerge from the pack and claim the MVP.
Who wins the National Championship?
Coin flips are 50-50, and more often than not, those are what most college football games are. Yet the other side of the coin is who is the best team and most consistent? At first glance, that feels like Oregon.
As stated, their margin of victory is among the best in the country. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was a Heisman finalist and had an excellent year after transferring from Oklahoma. He has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks throughout his college career.
On defense, Dan Lanning has a great front with size and versatility. Jordan Burch and Derrick Harmon are imposing challengers to running offenses like Tennessee and Ohio State.
Also, Jabbar Muhammad is one of the best cover corners in the NCAA. Several players on that side of the ball are headed to the NFL and the Ducks defense is loaded with talent. Plus, Jordan James is a competent running back who can give Gabriel some balance on offense. It’s going to be a clean sweep for the Ducks in their first year in the Big 10 after coming over from the practically dissolved PAC-12. Oregon won the Big 10 championship and will win their first national title to finally plant their flag at the pinnacle of the sport after so many close tries.
