This week is the start of the Conference Championships for college football! After this week we will know what Bowl games will cap off the 2023 season. Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at four key Conference Championship matchups! The outcome from each of these matchups could effect who we see in the College Football Playoffs, and potential Devy players going forward.
*Side note- I know it is possible that Iowa upsets Michigan. However, I think Michigan is the safest lock to make the playoffs this year, so I will not speak about that game.*
PAC-12 Championship – December 1, 2023 – 8pm EST
Oregon (#5) vs Washington(#3)
This will be an emotional game for me. I am happy to see a Week 6 rematch that went down to the final seconds. Washington squeaked out a 36-33 victory due to a missed field goal by Oregon that would have sent it to overtime. This will be the last Pac-12 championship game – EVER! That is right, after this year the Pac-12 will be no more. Each team is going to a different conference creating a Power 4. Luckily, both these teams will head to the Big-10, so we will still see their high flying offense soar against each other again. The winner of this game likely earns a spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Oregon’s Key to Victory
The Ducks will need to control the tempo of the game. The Huskies can score quickly. We saw this in Week 6 when they scored in two plays to take the final lead of the game. Oregon has their own playmakers, like wide receiver and Devy star Troy Franklin. Franklin can pick up yards in bunches. However, they will need to rely on running backs Bucky Irving and Jordan James to win. The running backs need to control the game like they did in Week 6. Irving and James combined for 190 yards on the ground on 33 attempts. Of those the longest run was 15 yards by Bucky Irving. The key to this game is scoring slowly. If Oregon controls the clock they will go to the College Football Playoffs.
Washington’s Key to Victory
Last time the Huskies played the Ducks they did not have wide receiver Jalen McMillan, who is their ‘not so secret’ weapon. Devy fantays football managers know quarterback Michael Penix Jr. can air it out. Oregon’s defense is not great, but they have stepped up since Week 6. In Week 6 they had an overall coverage ranking of 42 on PFF, a season low. Now, Penix Jr. has all his weapons at his exposure in this Pac-12 showdown. They will need to run 11 personnel to get each of their playmakers (including running back Dillon Johnson) on the field at once. This should cause some confusion for the Ducks. They will not be able to guard everybody. If the protection is there for Penix Jr. giving him time to scope the field then the Ducks will be in for a long game.
Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship – December 2, 2023 12pm EST
Oklahoma St (#18) vs Texas (#7)
The Texas Longhorns could still get into the College Football Playoffs. They would need two of Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State to lose for it to be a thought. On paper I would say Texas wins this game with ease. As I watch the film, though, there is a good opportunity that Oklahoma State pulls off the upset. They lean heavily on the run. If we go back to Week 6 (Texas’s only loss versus Oklahoma) we find that the Sooners ran for 201 yards and 3 touchdowns. Texas looks great, but they are beatable.
Texas’ Key to Victory
Texas should not have a problem scoring any points. Even with star running back Jonathon Brooks out. They have many playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Their key will come down to their tackling and stopping running back and Devy star Ollie Gordon. Linebackers Jaylan Ford (my personal LB1 of 2024), Freshman Anthony Hill Jr., and David Gbenda will need to be on point against this dominant running back. Gordon is the sole reason the Cowboys are in the playoffs. If the Longhorns stop him like UCF did three weeks ago then they have a shot at entering the College Football Playoffs (Gordon had 2.1 yards per carry for 25 yards against UCF).
Oklahoma State’s Key to Victory
Their wide receivers need to step up big. Senior Brennan Presley leads the core with 76 receptions, 746 yards, and 5 touchdowns. That is 27 more receptions, 100 more yards, and 4 more touchdowns than their next leading wide receiver. The Texas secondary could be considered their weakest link. Their starters have allowed 79 receptions for 1,097 yards and 7 touchdowns. Texas will likely hone in on running back Ollie Gordon knowing he is the heartbeat to their offense. One of these Cowboy wide receivers will need to make a big play or two to give them hope of a victory.
What an effort by Ollie Gordon pic.twitter.com/hXfSwQGhHQ
— Derek Duke (@DerekDuke25) November 26, 2023
SEC Championship – December 2, 2023 – 4pm EST
Georgia (#1) vs Alabama (#8)
There is a scenario where if Alabama wins, the defending champions miss this season’s College Football Playoffs. There is another scenario where if Alabama wins then the SEC misses the College Football Playoffs entirely. If you add these two scenarios together, plus the fact that Alabama’s only loss comes from a non-conference team (Texas), then you have a recipe for a great game.
Alabama’s Key to Victory
The last time the Crimson Tide played the Georgia Bulldogs was in the national championship in 2021. Georgia gave them a beatdown that they still remember. This 2023 Alabama team is less explosive than that 2021 team. Their offense lacks that spark. This means it will be up to the defense to win the game. Defensive Back Kool-Aid McKinstry will likely shutdown any wide receiver he is guarding. It will be up to linebackers Jihaad Campbell and Deontae Lawson to control Brock Bowers. He is the pulse of the Bulldog’s offense. Quarterback Carson Beck is talented, but I do not think he will have much run support this game. He will be asked to throw more than he is use to. If the Crimson Tide can take away any of his wide receivers (whoever McKinstry is guarding) plus Brock Bowers then they could sneak out a victory. This is assuming their offense finds that spark and holds onto it all game.
Georgia’s Key to Victory
It is simple, play your game. This Georgia team is not scoring rapidly. They do have some big plays here and there. For the most part they are grabbing a couple first downs or more before scoring. They know how to control the tempo. They cannot let Alabama control this game. I expect this game to be an old fashion defensive battle between two elite defenses. That means the Georgia offense will need to stay on the field and not fold to three and outs. Alabama will do everything in its power to at least get a two score lead to start playing conservatively. I said their offense lacks that spark, but their spark is brighter than Georgia’s offense. To win this Georgia team will need to tire out the Alabama defense. That means drives of eight or more plays before scoring.
ACC Championship – December 2, 2023 – 8pm EST
Louisville (#14) vs Florida State (#4)
Three weeks ago I would not consider this a big game. Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis suffered an injury against North Alabama earlier in the year ending his season. This leaves slight reason to believe that Louisville could possibly pull off the upset. In fact, the Louisville offense has had 327 more rushing yards than Florida State this season. Which leads me into their key to victory.
Louisville’s Key to Victory
Florida State will be hurt without Jordan Travis, but they still have playmakers all around the field. This means the playmakers for Louisville will need to step up and take advantage of the Travis-less Florida State team. One playmaker will be defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte. Gillotte is fifth in the nation with 11 sacks. He also leads the team in pressures with 58. It is possible that the Seminoles lean heavy on running back Trey Benson. They did last week giving him 19 carries (a season-high for Benson). If Gillotte can cause disruption early on by getting in the backfield the tide could shift in favor of Louisville. He does have 10 tackles for loss on the season.
Florida State’s Key to Victory
Trey Benson is my RB1 of the 2024 class. He will need to show it in these next three games (assuming Florida State wins). Benson only has one game over 100 yards this season after having four last season. The benefit is that game was off 11 carries and he ran for 200 yards. Benson has great vision with a one-cut type of running style. This means he sees the hole, hits his cut, and is gone. Quarterback Tate Rodemaker has not looked bad in the little we have seen him on the field. He is has 57.1% completion for 510 yards and 5 touchdowns without an interception. Rumors are circling that Rodemaker may be out with a possible concussion from a late hit versus Florida last weekend. If he is out then Benson’s role will become more valuable than ever. If Benson cannot get the ball moving consistently it could become a long day for the Florida State offense.
Trey Benson TD
Noles take the lead pic.twitter.com/qx4qxRqITR
— NMD Grant (@NMDgrant) November 26, 2023
Those are my thoughts on the four college football games I am most interested in watching this weekend. All of them could shake up the final four teams in the College Football Playoffs. In 2024, the NCAA will move to a 12-team playoff system.
This year, will see the finale of the Pac-12, a Big-12 showdown between a team that lost their star running back versus a team that relies heavily on their running back, an SEC national championship rematch, and an ACC showdown that is more equal than we might see on paper.
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SC Romero
Hello, I'm SC Romero, a fantasy football enthusiast for more than a decade. I personally enjoy the IDP format and the devy world! You can find me on X @ThePPRShow sharing all my knowledge to help you win your leagues! I hope to bring new insight to you through League Winners expanding your knowledge on the devy community! Have a question? Just ask, I'm here for you.