The free agent market this year could be impactful, particularly at WR and RB. How many of the top-end guys get tagged or extended by their current teams? In this month’s article, I break down my favorite free agent buys at the WR, TE, and RB positions. I finish off the article by giving some advice on what to do with the free agent QBs. Let’s dive into my favorite RBs to start.
RB – Antonio Gibson
The former college WR joined the Washington Commanders after being drafted in the third round of the 2020 draft. The first two years Antonio Gibson lost most of the receiving work to Mckissic. However, Gibson managed 78 receptions for a total of 541 yards and 3 TDs. He did most of his work on the ground, rushing for 1832 yards and 18 TDs. Anyone who snagged Gibson in rookie drafts was pleasantly surprised by his production. He finished as the RB 12 and 10 in those first two years, averaging 13.1 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring leagues.
However, after rushing for over 1000 yards in year two, the coaching staff lost faith. In 2021 Gibson fumbled five times. The Commanders drafted Brian Robinson in 2022. He has played the workhorse role since recovering from a gunshot wound early in the 2022 season. Gibson’s production has been limited over the last two years. He managed a few fantasy-relevant games, but consistency hasn’t been there. He has been forgotten by many fantasy owners.
I believe the talent is there with Gibson, a change of scenery should do him good in 2024. When he gets the ball, he is productive. Per Playerprofiler.com he ranked 4th and 2nd in yards per touch (5.8) and yards created per touch (5.11) last season. With a 3.39 40 time and 122.8 speed score from college, he has the potential to score from anywhere on the field.
What’s the Price?
He isn’t going to demand the type of money that Pollard, Barkley, Jacobs, etc. will, which might attract more suitors. He won’t get a starting gig, but he should land somewhere and be part of a rotation. That could lead to PPR upside. One landing spot I’d love to see for him is the Kansas City Chiefs playing the Jerrick McKinnon role.
He has remained relatively healthy through his four years and will only be 26 when the season begins. The fact that he is a former WR should help him stay in the league longer as a pass-catching back. His price tag is low, you might be able to acquire him for a single third-round pick. It is better to acquire him now before he signs somewhere.
RB- Tony Pollard
This one might be a bit tough. I believe most Tony Pollard owners aren’t going to sell him at his current price, which is around an early second. In Superflex leagues that is the range where the RBs will start to come off the board. Pollard finished as the RB 7, averaging 14.3 points back in 2022 while sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliot. With Zeke gone, fantasy owners were expecting a star in 2023. However, Pollard averaged a measly 11.5 points and was tough to trust every week.
Do the Cowboys start over at the RB position? Or do they bring Pollard back on the franchise tag or extend him? You might need to add a bit to a second-round pick to acquire him. I’d be willing to bet on a bounce-back season.
WR – Marquise Brown
Injuries have been a nagging issue for Marquise Brown over his career. He has missed eight games over the past two years and often had a questionable tag going into many games. He attempted to play through the heel injury in 2023, but the Arizona Cardinals eventually placed him on IR with a couple of games left in the year. Brown’s best season came in 2021, his last year with the Baltimore Ravens. He averaged 11.3 fantasy points and finished as the WR 23 overall. It was the only year he hit 1000 yards receiving (1008), and was just shy of 100 receptions (91). It was, however, his lowest TD total while with the Ravens (6).
Things started hot as a Cardinal. Through his first six weeks, he was the WR six, averaging 14.7 fantasy points. The uptick in targets was possible because Hopkins was serving his suspension at the time. Then came a foot injury causing him to miss five games. We only got to see Kyler Murray, Hopkins, and Brown play one game together before Murray suffered his season-ending injury. Brown finished off the year averaging 5.8 points per game with the backup QBs.
With Hopkins out of the way in 2023, many expected Brown to be the leading target for the Cardinals. Things just never seemed to click between him and Joshua Dobbs, leading to inconsistent play. He averaged 8.5 targets over the first nine games, but only caught about half of those, averaging 4.6 receptions per game. Things didn’t get much better once Murray returned in week ten. However, Brown was already starting to deal with the heel injury around that time.
What’s the Price?
The Cardinals have enough cap space to bring Brown back. It would be nice to see the two get a full season together. They already have the built-in chemistry from their time together in college. If this happens Brown will likely be fighting for targets with a new first-round WR and McBride. I’ve written it before and I’ll write it again; for Brown, it’s not about the quantity of targets, it’s about quality. He is so explosive that anytime he touches the ball he can take it to the house.
In his career thus far he has played for a run-first offense and dealt with backup QBs and or injuries. Maybe I am a bit naive, but I want to believe Brown can do more in the right situation. What we saw in those first six weeks of 2022 is the true potential of the heights Brown can reach. I am willing to pay his current price to take that chance.
He is valued around a mid-2024 second-round pick. This is low for a guy who has flashed WR 1 upside when healthy. Dontayvion Wicks is valued around the same range. If you can flip Wicks for Brown right now, do it! I’d love to see Brown go to a team where the focus isn’t on him. He would be fired if he could work against the team’s number two corners consistently. Dream scenario, the Bengals! Realistically, I think he will sign back with the Cardinals.
Honorable Mention
WR – Tee Higgins
If you are willing to pay up a bit, Tee Higgins is the guy to target right now. He is coming off a down year where injuries and inconsistent play at QB dropped his value. Higgins was ranked as a top 10 dynasty WR going into last offseason. He has now dropped to a low-end WR 2. Higgins has yet to finish as a WR 1 overall. His best year for fantasy purposes was 2021 when he averaged 13 points per game. That was the 11th best, but he missed 3 games, bringing his overall finish down. 2022 was his best statistical season. He had a slight dip in fantasy production. In a full 17 games, he averaged 12.4 points per game.
When things were at their lowest this past year; I saw Higgins and a 3rd flipped for Warren and a 2nd. He is currently priced around a late first. This seems extremely low for someone who is about to get paid. He should become a team’s number 1 WR. I believe most Higgins owners are going to hold onto him at this point. However, it is worth a shot to offer up a late 1st. If you are a contender this makes too much sense. I’d be willing to add a 3rd or comparable valued player to sweeten the pot.
TE – Noah Fant
The list of free-agent TEs is not great, making Noah Fant stand out even more! The trade to the Seahawks pushed him down the rankings after a promising start with the Broncos. Fant finished as the TE 12 in both 2020 and 2021 averaging 7.9 and 7.8 points per game. During his first three years in the league, he played with a rotation of QBs. Sadly the best of the bunch was Teddy Bridgewater in 2021. Fant is an athletic freak, scoring in the 96th percentile (at TE) or higher in all his college athletic scores. He is still only 26 years old. For the past two years, he played a limited role. He was in rotation and then had to fight for targets behind Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba this past year.
Some teams could use a player like Fant. The Bengals, Chargers, Panthers, and Dolphins come to mind. The ideal landing spots would be the Bengals or Chargers. His stock would shoot up if he were to land in either of those spots.
If I had to peg one player to break out in his late 20’s it’s going to be Fant. I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet and you can get him for next to nothing. His value right now is around an early 2024 fourth. Put him in an offense with a half-decent QB and target opportunity and he will shine! His price is worth the shot!
QB Market
The QB market is weak and there aren’t going to be too many openings after the rookies come in. Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins are the only notable starters and they are likely to re-sign with their current teams. Mayfield is worth taking a chance on if you can get him cheap. If Tampa Bay does resign him, Mike Evans could be gone and their OC just got a head coaching job.
- Gardner Minshew played well after taking over for Richardson. I think the Colts will make an aggressive offer to bring him back as insurance. He isn’t a bad target and should be rostered in all Superflex leagues. Richardson’s style of play will continue to have injury risk.
- Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold are two other noteworthy names. These two have a chance to be starting bridge QBs because of their draft capital. They are worth holding through the offseason to see what happens.
- Joshua Dobbs and Tyler Huntley are career backups who can add excitement if they get a shot. Their ability to run makes them fantasy-relevant if they get on the field. They are worth stashing, but I am not going out of my way to trade for either.
Conclusion
The offseason is an exciting time to make trades. Value can be found because no one is performing and everyone is excited about draft picks. Trading away draft capital can be tough. However, when you can buy low on a player it makes it worth it. I believe each of the players mentioned in the article (RB, WR, TE) has a shot to raise their value. Even with them signing with a certain team, could raise their stock. Take advantage of the uncertainty and buy now.
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.