Freshman 15 College Football: CFP Snubs and Surprises

Conference championship week is now in the books. The conference champions of the college football have been crowned, and the College Football Playoff Committee have  made its final decisions on who will compete for the National Championship. Some teams were fortunate enough to lose and maintain their spot in the CFP. Meanwhile, others looked on in disgust as the final selections were made. Plus, some surprise Cinderella programs will crash the party and attempt the unthinkable. Before we break down the hottest topics of the week, here’s a last look at Championship week and who gained the most on college football’s judgment day.

College Football Championship Week Recap

Saturday Spotlight Recap: Indiana vs. Ohio State

With how great both defenses were, points were going to be at a premium in this matchup. In the first half, the two teams traded interceptions and gave their opponents prime field position. However, once they got into the red zone, the offenses had to settle for field goals. Ohio State blew a golden opportunity to take make things difficult for Indiana. They failed to score points on their final drive of the second half, and the opening in the third quarter clutched just a 10-6 lead.

No one expected it, but Indiana ran the football fairly well against Ohio State. And, a Hoosiers offense that lost Omar Cooper earlier in the game could count on Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby. Indiana, by comparison, put more pressure on Julian Sayin than Ohio State was able to on Fernando Mendoza.

Jayden Fielding’s missed 27-yard attempt was the beginning of the end for Ohio State; Mendoza would connect with Charlie Becker on a big-time 33-yard pickup on third down late in the fourth quarter to effectively bleed the clock. Despite the low score, it was one of the most exciting games of the year.

Narratively, it was the closing argument for the Heisman Trophy. However, we’ll see both Mendoza and Sayin in New York for the award presentation. As for both teams, no one really is the loser, since both earned byes in the playoff and are on a collision course for a rematch in the National Title game.

Indiana wins the conference for the first time since 1967, and Ohio State gets a wake-up call before the playoffs start. A rare win-win for teams.

Upset Pick: Duke over UVA

When Duke lost to Virginia a few weeks ago, the game simply got away from them early and their offense never got off the ground. The rematch was more of the same, except Duke’s defense was the primary catalyst. The unit did a much better job at keeping the Cavaliers’ offense at bay in their second meeting. Duke managed to hold on to a close lead for much of the second half, keeping Virginia out of the end zone until the fourth quarter.

The game was much closer than it needed to be, as Duke had multiple chances late in regulation to put Virginia away. That is, until Chandler Morris engineered a 96-yard drive in under two minutes to take the game to overtime. Still, that’s when Manny Diaz’s defense stood tall.

After going ahead with a 27-20 lead in the overtime period, Duke’s defense took the field. On Virginia’s first snap in overtime, Luke Mergott intercepted Morris to secure the ACC title for the Blue Devils. An unlikely appearance and win in the ACC title for Duke had major implications on the College Football Playoff. The Cavaliers effectively punched the ticket for James Madison and Tulane to compete for the National Title. The Green Wave and the Dukes owe a big thank you to Manny Diaz and the Blue Devils.

Who got the most help from the Committee?

Without question, Alabama received the most help. This isn’t the best Crimson Tide team we’ve seen in years past. They faded toward the end of the year, winning a nail-biter versus Auburn. They were soundly beaten by Georgia last week. For the teams that were snubbed in favor of Alabama, their point isn’t hard to see.

Alabama’s most important win was back in Week 5 versus Georgia. Since then, they lost to Oklahoma (who they will play on December 19), lost to Georgia, and narrowly escaped against Missouri and South Carolina. Conversely, Texas pummeled Oklahoma, lost by one score to Ohio State, and convincingly beat undefeated Texas A&M, which marked their third win over a top-10 opponent. In all, Texas has a +5 point differential against opponents who are in the CFP. Meanwhile, Alabama has a -20 point differential against opponents in the CFP.

To a lesser degree, one could make an argument for Notre Dame as well. Notre Dame has won 10 consecutive games. Their only two losses came to open the season against Texas A&M and Miami, who made the CFP. Their losses were by a total of six points, but since then have dominated their opponents. One could make the counterargument of who the Fighting Irish have played, but what has Alabama done lately? The Crimson were most certainly given a helping hand to play in the tournament.

Team most likely to disappoint?

The Texas A&M Aggies are a favorited team expected to fall flat in the playoffs. Texas A&M coasted much of the season atop the SEC. Their most impressive win came in overtime over Notre Dame back in Week 3, but after that, it was one close call after another. Arkansas, Auburn, and South Carolina gave them all they could handle. Their loss against Texas exposed them a little and answered the question of what happens when they play somebody with a truly elite defense.

Looking at the bracket, they’ll face Ohio State in the second round (if they get past Miami). Ohio State has the personnel to challenge an offense at all three levels. They have the speed to spy Marcel Reed with Sonny Styles and the deep help at safety with Caleb Downs to keep an eye on KC Concepcion. Plus, the Texas A&M running backs aren’t as equipped to handle that front seven like Indiana did. If the Aggies survive their first-round game against Miami, they likely get steamrolled at the Cotton Bowl by the Buckeyes.

Who wins it all?

Ohio State will likely repeat as the national college football champion. Looking at matchups, they’ll draw either Miami or Texas A&M in the second round, though Miami may be more troublesome because of their speed and Rueben Bain Jr. on the edge. That said, they should also be able to handle them, and the winner of Georgia versus Alabama. There’s not a quarterback on their side of the bracket that will give them problems with how much talent they have defensively.

All of that sets up perfectly for a rematch of Indiana versus Ohio State in the National Title Game. With another look at Cignetti’s defense and time to prepare, Julian Sayin should look much more comfortable. The Buckeyes go back-to-back.