The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a disappointing double overtime loss at Virginia. This had the makings of a trap game, and Florida State could not overcome bad run defense and early turnovers by the offense. The Seminoles do not have long to recover, as they have a huge prime-time matchup against their rival, the Miami Hurricanes, in Week 6. Can FSU recover and give the Hurricanes their first loss? It’s an FSU vs. Miami preview for Week 6 of the 2025 season, so let’s dive in.
FSU Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes: Football History and Game Excerpts
Miami leads the series against FSU 36-33. This has been a back-and-forth rivalry throughout the years. The Seminoles lost on the road in 2024, 36-14, but had won three straight matchups before that. The Hurricanes won the four matchups before that, breaking a run of seven victories in a row for FSU from 2010-2016. Four out of the last five games at Doak Campbell Stadium have been decided by a touchdown or less between the Seminoles and Hurricanes.
In his weekly press conference, Mike Norvell spoke about the Week 6 matchup against Miami and what it means for FSU following a tough loss.
FSU vs. Miami 2025 Preview: Keys, Players, and Predictions
Key Players for FSU
Tommy Castellanos was not limited by his ankle injury against Virginia. He led the team in rushing with 78 yards on 14 carries. However, the turnovers caused more passing than Castellanos had been doing in his first three games for the Seminoles. The 32 attempts are double what he had passed in any game this season. This team goes as far as Castellanos will take them, and he has to make the right reads and not turn over the ball against a good Miami defense.
Florida State was able to run for 256 yards against Virginia, but lacked the explosive touchdown plays. The longest run of the day was 23 yards by Ousmane Kromah. Gavin Sawchuk has been solid, but it is obvious Kromah has the higher ceiling. The running back touches should be 50-50 between them going forward. After having such an impactful game against Alabama, Jaylin Lucas has been quiet. Against Virginia, Lucas only had one touch for nine yards. He needs to be incorporated more into the offense because of his versatility.
Duce Robinson had another huge game last week with nine catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. He bobbled another possible touchdown that ended up being overturned to incomplete. The Seminoles need to get a more consistent second option in the passing game. Robinson has 17 catches on the season, and the next highest receiver is Micahi Danzy with seven.
UCF transfer tight end Randy Pittman might be the answer moving forward. Pittman had been out because of an injury, but scored three touchdowns in this game; the trifecta of a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown. The tight end only had two catches, but one was a crucial diving touchdown to tie the game.
The Seminoles defense struggled to get pressure without blitzing, and the Virginia running game dominated in the second half. Justin Cryer provided good pressure, but the edges for the Seminoles have to get more consistent. Earl Little Jr. and Ja’bril Rawls combined for 24 tackles against Virginia and will need to be active against Miami in the running and passing game. Darrell Jackson Jr. has been drawing double and triple teams, so Mandrell Desir will need to continue his great play to help stop the potent Miami run game.
FSU True Freshman DT Mandrell Desir
Rank Among 586 FBS DTs
🍢 26.3% Run Stop Rate (1st)
🍢 90.2 Run Defense Grade (3rd)One of the best run stopping DTs in the country this year, regardless of class pic.twitter.com/cVnvAtJZSN
— Clay Fink (@clay_fink) September 25, 2025
Key Players for Miami
It all starts with the signal caller for Miami. Carson Beck had looked great in his first three games with the Hurricanes, but struggled against the Florida Gators where the offense did not find its footing until the fourth quarter. It was the first game he did not reach 200 yards, nor did he throw a touchdown. On the season, Beck has seven touchdowns to only three interceptions and has only been sacked three times. If Beck can stay in rhythm it might be another long night for the Seminoles defense.
The Miami offensive line has been strong so far this season in protecting Beck, but also in running the football. The Hurricanes average over 180 rush yards a game and have two strong backs in Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown. The duo has combined for 594 yards and nine touchdowns in four games.
Freshman Malachi Toney is the leading receiver for Miami with 22 catches for 268 yards and one touchdown. He plays predominantly out of the slot and 70-percent of his targets are 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. He has been excellent in the open field, averaging over six yards after the catch. CJ Daniels is the second leading receiver and is more of the deep threat. Two of his three touchdowns have come from 20 yards or more.
On the defensive side, Miami has one of the best defensive lineman in college football. PFF gave grades of over 90 for every game so far for Reuben Bains Jr.. He has three sacks and 19 overall pressures in four games.
Mohammed Toure is second behind Bain in tackles for the Hurricanes with 16. The Rutgers transfer is much more of a run stuffer from the linebacker position, as he only has 14 pass rushing snaps, per PFF. Miami is 38th against the pass allowing 181 yards per game. Damari Brown is the top ranked player in the secondary in coverage and safety Bryce Fitzgerald leads the team in interceptions with two.
2025 Game Prediction: How FSU Wins vs. Miami in Week 6
FSU needs to start out fast and aggressive against Miami. They were able to do that in the first three games, but turnovers allowed Virginia to get early momentum. The Seminoles must stay in manageable down and distance, so they do not turn into a drop-back passing team. Penalties put the offense behind the chains and caused for drives to stall out. They can’t afford that to happen in Week 6.
On defense, the Seminoles can not allow the Hurricanes offense to run the ball and have long drives. That happened last week, and really hurt the team. Shortening the game in time of possession for the FSU offense puts more pressure on Tommy Castellanos to make big plays – and that is where mistakes can also happen. Defensive coordinator Tony White will need to scheme up pressure so that Carson Beck isn’t comfortable.
This will be an emotional game, but the homefield advantage will help FSU pull the small upset against their rival this week. My prediction 31-27 Seminoles.
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Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. Brandon started writing for The League Winners in 2021.