The NFL and Rookie Drafts have come and gone and now we begin to transition into best-ball season and ultimately redraft season. Redraft leagues are a unique beast that can be tough to decipher. Many experts will say that knowing your league mates and league settings is key to a successful draft, but my Game Theory – ADP Differential will help you gain a massive advantage.
While those are solid strategies, I would like to take the preparation one step further. In the 2022 fantasy season, I noticed I really found myself rostering certain players on one site but not on others and I was curious to find out why, when I dug deeper I found it was because of gaps in that specific site’s ADP (Average Draft Position) data.
The Parameters
For the purposes of this article, I will be using May 2023 1QB Redraft ADP data from Sleeper, ESPN and Yahoo fantasy leagues.
It is very early in the offseason, so do not use these specific numbers as a guide to determine which players you draft, rather take the strategies used here and apply them to your own leagues to maximize value.
When I use this strategy I typically use my own set of rankings, but for the sake of impartiality, I will instead be using May 2023 Fantasy Pros 1QB ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking).
I will also be using an Excel Spreadsheet to organize and sort the data more easily and to help explain my Game Theory – ADP Differential.
The Spreadsheet
The above spreadsheet is how I collect my data. This particular image has it sorted by Fantasy Pros ECR.
As we see from Column A, Christian McCaffrey currently ranks as the 1.01 in ECR.
The next three columns labelled Y Diff, E Diff and S Diff are to calculate the difference between that player’s value in ECR when compared to their ADP on that specific site.
Green means they are being drafted at least one round later than their ECR rank, yellow means they are going in the appropriate round, while red indicated they are going a round earlier than their current ECR ranking.
As we see from the top ten players by ECR, there is a lot of yellow as they are the consensus top ten and are drafted as such in every format.
For argument’s sake though and to further explain it, Austin Ekeler’s values in these three columns are 3,8 and 1.
This would indicate he typically goes three picks later than ECR on Yahoo, eight picks later on ESPN and one pick later on Sleeper.
For comparison’s sake. Columns labelled ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper are their current ADP for those three sites.
This is by far the most critical part of Game Theory – ADP Differential.
Yahoo’s Most Under Valued
This time the spreadsheet is sorted according to which players have the greatest value when comparing ECR to Yahoo ADP.
As you can see from the steady stream of green in Column B those players are all lower in Yahoo ADP by at least a round, with the greatest difference being Tim Patrick who is going 60 picks later on Yahoo than ECR.
If you look closer you will see some players, such as Chase Claypool, have all three ADP columns green as they are a value across all platforms.
While other players, such as Kyler Murray are a value on Yahoo but are heavily over-valued on the other two platforms.
These are the things we are looking for, these are the gaps in ADP from one site to another.
Some sites just have their players ranked differently and as a result, those players come up higher on the draft board leading to fantasy managers drafting them higher on that specific platform.
In the case of Kyler Murray and Quentin Johnston, I would wager that I will have a much higher rostership percentage for them on Yahoo, while I will own very few shares of them on ESPN and Sleeper.
Yahoo’s Most Over Valued
Here, the spreadsheet is sorted in the opposite way to indicate which players are being over-drafted the most on Yahoo.
We see a player like Kendre Miller is being over-valued across all platforms and is going almost four full rounds ahead of his ECR ranking.
Players such as Zonovan Knight, Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman on the other hand are a better value on other sites while being over-drafted in Yahoo leagues.
That’s the goal of this exercise. Just because I like D’Onta Foreman on Sleeper and want to draft him there doesn’t mean I have to like him everywhere.
Change your draft strategy based on your platform just as you would your league’s settings and scoring.
I know it’s hard to believe but the same player can have a huge ADP swing from one site to the next despite the scoring being identical.
Take Kendrick Bourne for example. On Sleeper, he is going 75 picks later than his ECR and is a steal, while on Yahoo he is going almost three full rounds too early.
These gaps can be the difference between winning and losing a league and this formula holds true across all platforms.
No two sites rank or list players in the same fashion and some will have players buried just by some random glitch in their draft software.
This is where Game Theory – ADP Differential will pay dividends for fantasy managers.
These are the situations we need to take advantage of to avoid over-valued players and target under-valued players.
ESPN ADP Gaps
Above we have two spreadsheets outlining the good and bad values in the current ESPN ADP.
As you can see, there is a mix of players that were on the Yahoo charts as well as a bunch that weren’t seen on Yahoo.
On ESPN, the 2023 rookie class seems to be getting highly over-drafted when compared to Yahoo.
This could be because Yahoo is far less customizable for dynasty leagues than other sites, so rookie fever may not be in full effect there.
We do see, however, that Chiefs rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice is currently one of the worst values in 2023 redraft leagues, going a whopping 154 picks ahead of ECR on ESPN.
Sleeper ADP Gaps
We will close it out with ADP highs and lows on Sleeper.
As you can see very evidently, Sleeper is the preferred platform for the vast majority of dynasty players, as such the 2023 class of rookies is a huge avoid in their redraft leagues.
The majority of the rookie class is going four to eight rounds earlier than their ECR, with some even going 100 picks earlier.
The moral of this story is, if you want to draft rookies at a value in 2023 redraft leagues you should be playing in ESPN fantasy leagues and avoiding Sleeper.
On the other hand, Sleeper is a great place to draft those grizzled veterans that have been pushed aside by rookie fever.
What We Learned
It’s simple. League platform is every bit as important as scoring, settings or even positions.
If you go into a draft with a spreadsheet similar to mine, you will be prepared to exploit certain ranges of the draft that weren’t exploitable on other sites.
Going into a Yahoo draft knowing you can grab a rookie wide receiver five rounds later than anticipated allows you to wait on the position and gives you a huge strategic advantage.
Knowing that these rookies will dry up quicker on Sleeper will allow you to anticipate the draft better than your league-mates
We may not be psychics, but with proper research and preparation, we can better anticipate the ebbs and flows of our draft boards and tailor them to our specific site.
Typically when employing this spreadsheet in my own drafts I hear lots of comments like “Oh, you sniped me again” or “I didn’t know that guy was even available still, he was so far down the list”.
As I’ve said above, this strategy may not make you a psychic, but it will make you far better at predicting your draft board than any other strategy I know of.
Give it a try, and if you need any assistance with how to format some of the columns of the spreadsheet contact the League Winners or myself on Twitter @FFMadScientist.
The 2023 Rookie Class
For more information on the 2023 rookie class and an explanation of which ones to target in drafts in any ADP range.
Be sure to check out my Rookie Risk vs Reward article at:
