Welcome back, folks! I waited until after Week 1 to post the first GameDay Edge article this season so we could have a new data set to follow. I hope you have had a chance to take a look at the positional GsameDay Edge matchup tool by The League Winners to gain you an edge on your weekly fantasy football matchups. If not go check it out here.
The GameDay Edge tool combines volume and productivity by players into one matchup score. As the season goes on, the tool will gain better correlation. The tool is meant to help uncover matchups that might have the potential to boom which are not evident intuitively. For example:
Even if Sam Howell is not a great fantasy football quarterback, he may be facing a team that yields volume, yardage, and fantasy points to the QB spot. This is valuable in DFS, one-and-done leagues, player props, and also in strengthening your flex or streaming spots in redraft and dynasty leagues. Use the tool as an easy guidance to identify boom or bust potential matchups. Here is the WR Week 2 GameDay Edge tool for reference.
Since we had one of the craziest NFL Week 1’s in recent memory, I personally am using the charts with skepticism. Admittedly, too much variance exists in the data after one week.. However, I will dive into some interesting matchups based on the week 1 outcome and use 2022 data to back it up to add confidence. In the offseason, I learned the correlation of the matchup tool takes off after week 4 as we learn the tendencies of new coaches, coordinators, and new players on teams.
Week 2 GameDay Edge Passing Game Tidbits
- The Miami Dolphins‘ outburst against the Los Angeles Chargers is skewing this chart due to the high volume for Miami and the high volume allowed by the Chargers. Hence the Tennessee Titans have the second-best WR matchup facing the Chargers. The Titans passed at a nearly 63% rate against the stout run defense of the Saints in week 1. This number was 51% in 2022. Look for a decline in the pass rate this week. Also, the Chargers only yielded a 62% completion percentage in week 1.
- The Minnesota Vikings are projected to have the highest number of passes this week. I think that will be true almost every week. But this week they face a Philadelphia Eagles team that yielded 54 pass attempts in Week 1. The Vikings passed the ball at 73%, second-highest in the league. Look for Jordan Addison to produce once again. However, TJ Hockenson may be the play here as the Eagles gave up a touchdown to Hunter Henry last week.
- Speaking of absurdly high pass rates, the Pittsburgh Steelers passed at 83.61%! They get to face another relentless front-four defense in the Cleveland Browns. I would shy away from any offensive players from the Steelers this week. The Brown’s defense has been on a steady rise since last year. They allowed the fourth-fewest completion percentage to opposing teams in 2022.
Week 2 GameDay Edge Rushing Game Tidbits
- After the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets relied on their running backs heavily. They produced a league-winning 6.1 yards per rush attempt against the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. Their opponent for Week 2 is the Dallas Cowboys. Even though Dallas forced three turnovers, the rush defense was mediocre. The Cowboys gave up 3.9 yards per rush attempt which is league average. Start both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook with confidence this week as they will see volume and production.
- The New England Patriots threw the ball 54 times in Week 1. That’s nine more than the Dolphins. Now they play the Dolphins who gave up 40 rush attempts to the LAC for 208 yards. New England will rely heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott to slow the game down. Hopefully, Belichick learns from Week 1 and reverts back to the ground game this week.
- Everyone is saying Arthur Smith hates fantasy football. On the contrary, he loves fantasy football for running backs. He gave his running backs 52.9% target share and ran the ball at 54.17%. This week, Smith’s Falcons take on a Green Bay Packers defense that gave up 80 yards on 11 catches to running backs. I am all-in on both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier finishing as RB1s this week.
