At this point in the NFL offseason, most of the speculation regarding big-name players and their respective landing spots has been settled. Julio Jones was traded to the Titans, Allen Robinson officially reported to Bears minicamp, and Jimmy Garoppolo is unlikely to leave San Francisco. There remains one final superstar left in hold-out purgatory: reigning MVP and Green Bay Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
So far, the team has been unwilling to trade Rodgers; but after telling members of the Packers organization that he does not want to return to the team and skipping mandatory minicamp, it seems he’s set on moving on from the team. He could opt-out of the 2021 season by July 2nd and save himself roughly $20 million, but it would be an irreversible decision.
It’s unclear if Rodgers will end up leading a team like the Broncos or hosting a trivia game show this season, but it’s almost certain that he will not be the starting QB of the Green Bay Packers. This means that all the Packers we loved having in fantasy last year need to be re-examined and re-adjusted with the assumption that Jordan Love takes over. Here’s how I think the Packers offense shakes out for fantasy purposes in 2021.
Green Bay Packers Players Outlook without Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams | WR
Let’s kick it off with the most obvious regression candidate, Davante Adams. Rodgers and Adams formed arguably the most potent fantasy football duo last year as the overall fantasy QB2 and WR1, rivaled only by the likes of Allen/Diggs or Mahomes/Hill. If you had both Rodgers and Adams on your roster, there’s a good chance you won your league. But it goes without saying that Adams will not be as hyper-efficient in 2021 with Love at QB.
Allow me to quickly list the accomplishments of Aaron Rodgers’ 2020 season: #1 in completion percentage (70.7%), #1 in passing TDs (48), #1 in TD percentage (9.1%), #1 in interception percentage (1.0%), and #1 in QB rating (121.5). Of course a large part of that was due to Davante Adams’ own talents, but there’s no way Jordan Love is going to enter the league and put up anywhere close to those MVP numbers.
I expect Adams to get a significant portion of his team’s targets again this year, but he will most likely regress in all categories. He’s only had two 1,000 yard seasons in seven years, will probably lose out on a lot of the goal line fade TDs that Rodgers excelled at throwing, and could get additional attention from defenses that don’t want to be burned like last year. In full PPR Adams is currently the WR2 according to FantasyPros; but in our recent League Winners redraft league he fell all the way to WR9 with the first pick of the fourth round.
Prediction: WR10
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Robert Tonyan | TE
Robert Tonyan came out of nowhere in his 3rd season to grab the overall TE4 spot last year, largely thanks to his 11 receiving TDs. The Packers did just re-sign Marcedes Lewis, who may vulture a TD or two, but I expect him to be a locker room guy. Tonyan had a fantastic catch percentage last season (88.1%) and could very well be a safety blanket for Love to fall back on.
I see Tonyan getting a good amount of the goal line work that Adams saw last year, and while another TE4 finish probably isn’t in the cards, he’s still a solid option at the position. FantasyPros has Tonyan as the TE10 going into 2021, and he was taken as the TE14 in our League Winners draft. This is one of the few Packers I’m still high on, and you could look to capitalize on the general apprehension that Rodgers’ situation has had on the fantasy community.
Prediction: TE7
Aaron Jones | RB
Another player I’m optimistic about with Rodgers’ exit, Aaron Jones could be poised for a huge season. The 5th-year RB finished 2020 as the RB5, placing 5th in yards per attempt (5.5) and 4th in yards per game (78.9) in 14 games. He does have a promising backup in AJ Dillon right behind him, but the Packers just re-signed Jones this offseason and paid him way too much to not use him as a workhorse RB.
With an inexperienced QB, a great defense, and a solid offensive line, I expect the Packers to become much more run-heavy this season. That means more goal line TDs taken from Davante Adams’ slice of the pie, and Jones should succeed even if Dillon gets some opportunities. I do worry a bit about his receiving work, as the 60+ targets Jones has seen the last 2 years probably won’t repeat with a mobile QB, but his rushing ability could very well make up for it. Jones is currently the RB9 in PPR on FantasyPros, and was the RB12 in our League Winners draft.
Prediction: RB7
Allen Lazard | WR
Now we get into the trickier players. Allen Lazard has occasionally flashed potential, but hasn’t ever taken up a position of fantasy football relevance. Whether that’s due to his lack of a connection with Rodgers or just being on the same team as Davante Adams, he has a legitimate chance at success in 2021 if he gains Love’s trust.
Lazard finished last year as the WR79, and will most likely be the 3rd target on the team behind Adams and Tonyan. If he manages to form a connection with Love and overtake one of those two on the pecking order, he could find himself as a solid WR2/WR3 option, but it’s probably more likely he’s unusable in fantasy once again. FantasyPros has him listed as the WR71, but he went undrafted in our writers league.
Prediction: WR64
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR
Ah yes, perennial deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He managed the WR55 spot last year largely due to Rodgers’ amazing deep ball abilities, and had the highest yards per reception of anyone in the league (20.9). The Packers have a good defense and I doubt Love can drop dimes like Rodgers, so I don’t expect MVS to repeat his post route success. FantasyPros has him as the WR78, but he also went undrafted with the League Winners.
Prediction: WR83
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Jordan Love | QB
And now for the heir apparent himself. The whole reason why the Green Bay Packers’ situation is so hard to predict is that we have no idea how good Love will be in an NFL setting. We don’t know if he’ll be a truly mobile QB, or who on the Packers he’ll form a connection with. At this point betting on any Packer is a bit risky, and you can see that reflected in their plummeting ADPs.
Love had a great 2018 season with Utah State, racking up 3500 yards, 32 passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs, and just 6 interceptions. In comparison, his last season in 2019 was very disappointing. 3400 yards, 20 passing TDs, 0 rushing TDs, and a whopping 17 interceptions really puts doubt into my mind regarding Love’s ability to compete with NFL caliber defenses.
Reports from training camp have been a mixed bag so far, from serious struggles to impressive performances. If he can recapture the rushing success from his 2018 season and avoid turning the ball over as much as he did in his last year, Love could be a legitimate option for fantasy managers. He has a good offensive line and all the weapons you could hope for, it’s entirely up to his own talents now. He’s currently the QB39 on FantasyPros and was taken as the QB34 in our writers league.
2021 Prediction: QB24
Lol if anyone who had Rodgers and Adams on the same team and lost their league last year, they’re probably terrible at fantasy.