Group of 5 Power Rankings: Conference Championship Week

Conference Championship week is here, and it’s a week full of important matchups across the country, and it’s no different for the G5. So, who makes the cut in our top-10 Group of 5 Power Rankings as we head into conference championship game week, and what games should you be watching?

Before we dive in, something that needs to be brought up is how the college football playoff works. The five highest-ranked conference champions make it in, regardless of what conference they belong to. There is a slight misconception that it’s the top-4 P4 champions and an additional G5 team that get automatic bids. However, that’s not the case.

In the most recent CFP rankings that dropped Tuesday, Tulane came in at No. 20. Meanwhile, North Texas and James Madison Dukes came in at No. 24 and 25, respectively. So, if a 5-loss Duke team beats Virginia on Saturday, that would propel two G5 teams to make the playoff. The winner of the American is guaranteed a spot with how the rankings currently are, and if Virginia slips up against Duke and JMU beats Troy, the Dukes make it in as well.

If Duke wins and JMU loses, then a really interesting debate happens. If you’re a fan of the G5, you should be rooting for Duke this weekend. However, if Virginia ends up winning, the American Conference champion will be in no matter what, unless something crazy happens where JMU beats Troy by 100 or something like that.

With all that being said, let’s dive into our rankings and what games you should be watching this week.

*Disclaimer: These are power rankings with a lot of different factors involved, including strength of schedule, head-to-head, metrics, overall resume, and who would win on a neutral field.*

Group of 5 Power Rankings: Week 15

1. James Madison Dukes (11-1)

• Last Week: 59-10 Win at Coastal Carolina
• This Week: Friday, Dec. 5 vs. Troy (8-4)

Yet again, James Madison sees itself at the No. 1 spot. We’ve talked about it a decent amount through these rankings, but the Dukes are the most complete team in the entire Group of 5. Their defense is elite, and the offense has steadily improved the entire season. They’re coming off a 59-10 bludgeoning of Coastal Carolina, and will roll into the Sun Belt Championship against a gritty Troy team.

Uncertainty surrounds head coach Bob Chesney. However, this team is extremely well coached; and quarterback Alonza Barnett III is a difference maker through the air and ground. They have an all-important matchup against Troy on Saturday, and if they pull off a win and Virginia slips up, they’ll find themselves in the college football playoff.

2. North Texas Mean Green (11-1)

• Last Week: 52-25 Win vs. Temple
• This Week: Friday, Dec. 5 at Tulane (10-2)

Coming in at No. 2 this week is the North Texas Mean Green. The job Eric Morris has done can’t be understated, and North Texas easily has the best offense in the G5 and maybe in the entire country. The duo of running back Caleb Hawkins and quarterback Drew Mestemaker (American Offensive Player of the Year) is impossible to stop, and the defense has slowly shown improvements throughout the year.

Head coach Eric Morris is off to Oklahoma State. However, if North Texas keeps winning, he’ll be able to stick around longer. They have a win-and-in style game this week against Tulane in the most important game in Mean Green history.

3. Tulane Green Wave (10-2)

• Last Week: 27-0 Win vs. Charlotte
• This Week: Friday, Dec. 5 vs. North Texas (11-1)

Tulane’s at No. 3 this week ahead of their American Conference championship matchup against North Texas. Tulane is an extremely fast and physical football team and has a winner in Jake Retzlaff at quarterback. The Green Wave goes as Retzlaff goes, and his legs are a difference maker. Receiver Shazz Preston is an explosive play waiting to happen on the outside, and Tulane may have the best wins in all of the G5 this year.

Head coach Jon Sumrall is off to Florida after the season. Yet similarly to Eric Morris, if the Green Wave keep on winning, he gets to stick around longer. They have that chance under Sumrall if they knock off the Mean Green Friday night.

4. Navy Midshipmen (9-2)

• Last Week: 28-17 Win at Memphis
• This Week: Off

Navy comes in at No. 4 this week and is coming off a 28-17 victory over a good Memphis team. Head coach Brian Newberry isn’t getting nearly as much credit for what he is doing at Navy. The Midshipmen don’t have NIL, run the triple-option, and has players who will go on to serve our country once it’s all said and done. It truly is incredible work from Newberry and co. as this team sits at nine wins and is one of the best teams in the Group of 5.

They’re led by quarterback Blake Horvath and playmaker Eli Heidenreich, and they’ll just end up outmuscling you as the game goes on. It truly is death by a thousand papercuts against this team, and they have this week off before they take on Army Saturday, Dec. 15.

5. USF Bulls (9-3)

• Last Week: 52-3 Win vs. Rice
• This Week: Awaiting Bowl Matchup

Rounding out our top-5 is the USF Bulls, led by quarterback Byrum Brown. This past weekend, Brown became only the 12^th player in FBS history to throw for more than 3000 yards and run for more than 1000 yards in a season. He accounted for five total touchdowns against Rice in Week 14, and is one of the better quarterbacks we’ve seen over the past few seasons that doesn’t get talked about enough.

The losses to Navy and Memphis hurt the Bulls this year, and both were games they easily could have one. Nonetheless, this is an extremely talented football team that struggled to make the key play when it needed to.

Head coach Alex Golesh is off to Auburn and coached his final game for the Bulls on Saturday. South Florida will now wait around until they hear who they will be taking on in their bowl game.

Honorable Mentions

6. UConn (9-3)

• Last Week: Bye
• This Week: Awaiting Bowl Matchup

7. Old Dominion (9-3)

• Last Week: 27-10 Win vs. Georgia State
• This Week: Awaiting Bowl Matchup

8. East Carolina (8-4)

• Last Week: 42-3 Win at FAU
• This Week: Awaiting Bowl Matchup

9. New Mexico (9-3)

• Last Week: 23-17 Win vs. San Diego State
• This Week: Awaiting Bowl Matchup

10.) UNLV (10-2)

• Last Week: 42-17 Win at Nevada
• This Week: Friday, Dec. 5 at Boise State

Three Group of 5 Games to Watch in Week 15

North Texas at Tulane: Friday, Dec. 5

North Texas and Tulane battle on Friday for the American Conference Championship. It’s No. 2 vs No. 3 in our Group of 5 Power Rankings, and No. 24 vs. No. 20 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The winner of this game is a lock for the CFP, so it’s really everything one could ask for in a G5 matchup.

Both teams are dealing with coaches who are essentially working two jobs, as North Texas coach Eric Morris took the Oklahoma State job and Tulane coach Jon Sumrall took the Florida job. However, both programs are letting their coaches coach this game and into the playoffs if they make it that far.

This is an intriguing matchup, and it will be interesting to see how well prepared both teams are. The distraction of coaches working for another team is a real thing, and preparation from both teams could be lacking.

Something to keep an eye on in this matchup is Jake Retzlaff’s legs. North Texas has a below-average rush defense, and it’s especially bad against mobile quarterbacks. The Mean Green also struggle on third down defensively, so getting off the field and getting the ball back to their juggernaut of an offense is imperative for North Texas.

Offensively, for North Texas, they are top-10 in the country in many metrics, including total offensive EPA, EPA/rush, EPA/drop back, quality drive rate, points/quality drive, and the list goes on. In Tulane’s two losses this year, they have really struggled on defense, and their offense hasn’t complemented their defense at all. When Tulane struggles, Retzlaff is usually struggling, and their offense is producing 3-and-outs, which is putting their defense in a bind.

True Freshman running back Caleb Hawkins for North Texas is a difference-maker and might be the key to this entire game. If Tulane can’t defend the run, it’s going to be a long game for the Green Wave. If North Texas can establish the run, it sets up so much in the Mean Green’s Air Raid playbook, especially with play action.

The team that can get off the field on third down defensively will most likely win this game. Yet as we mentioned, keep an eye on each team’s preparation with both coaches tending to other programs.

Troy at James Madison: Friday, Dec. 5

James Madison takes on Troy this Friday, and if they can pull off a win and Duke loses, they’re into the playoff as well. The Dukes are also dealing with some outside noise, as head coach Bob Chesney has reportedly taken the UCLA job. He has also been linked to the Penn State job as well. The Dukes’ preparation will be tested just as North Texas’s and Tulane’s will be this weekend.

The key to this game is whether or not Troy, as cliché as it sounds, can score enough to win. James Madison sports one of the best defenses in the entire country. It’s tough for anyone to score on them, and expect the same for Troy on Friday. The silver lining for the Trojans is that James Madison can be very streaky on offense. If Troy can put up some points and JMU has an off night offensively, this game could get very interesting.

An interesting side note that pertains to this game is if Troy can pull off the upset, and Duke wins on Saturday, who would be the fifth conference champion in the playoff field? Would a 5-loss Duke team make it, or could potentially the winner of the Mountain West championship sneak in?

If James Madison takes care of business, that won’t be a discussion. However, the possibility is out there. If James Madison can stop the run like they have all year and Alonza Barnett III can take care of the ball, they’ll be crossing their fingers and hoping for a Duke win on Saturday night.

Miami (OH) at Western Michigan: Saturday, Dec. 6

The MAC is most well-known for midweek MACtion, and the crazy stuff that happens during those games. However, don’t let that fool you; they play great football in the MAC, and there’s an excellent matchup in the conference championship in Miami (OH) and Western Michigan.

These two teams played earlier this year, where Miami (OH) came away with a 26-17 victory. The Broncos had a 17-9 lead heading into the fourth quarter until the RedHawks stormed back and scored 17 unanswered points to win the game. In their first meeting, Western Michigan struggled to protect the quarterback and take care of the ball.

In conference championships, it really comes down to is who takes care of the ball, who limits their penalties, and who does the little things better.

The key to this game is how well Miami (OH) handles Bronco quarterback Broc Lowry. He leads the Broncos in rushing and is as much of a dual-threat quarterback as you can be. The RedHawks have one of the highest missed-tackle rates in the country and are also one of the worst at defending quarterback runs and scrambles.

If Lowry is able to run free, it could spell disaster for Miami (OH). However, if the RedHawks can contain him, the rest of the Broncos offense is fairly pedestrian. The chest match in this game will be intriguing, and the winner will take home a MAC title and will forever be a MAC champion.