Hate it or Love it, Dallas Had to Make it Rayne

After what felt like years of uncertainty, the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott have finally agreed to a long-term contract extension. Prescott’s new deal is worth 160 million dollars over 4 years (an average of 40 million dollars per year). Cowboys fans can exhale their collective breath now that the contract ordeal is over and the team has secured their quarterback for the foreseeable future.

However, not long before the ink was dry on the contract, skeptics were looking at the agreement sideways. That in itself isn’t entirely surprising considering many detractors believed it was best for the Cowboys to go in another direction at quarterback. Despite the many critiques of Dak Prescott, I’m convinced the Cowboys made the right decision regardless of the price tag. With Prescott now secured, the only thing to do is address the concerns of the skeptics who were against this contract in the first place.

Last month, I had sent out a tweet asking what are the most common reasons people have heard as to why the Cowboys shouldn’t pay Dak Prescott a market value contract and there were several responses. Many of which have been discussed on national debate shows for months, if not longer. I intend to address the large majority of those reasons and hopefully alleviate, if not dispel, the uneasiness surrounding paying Dak Prescott a market value contract.

The Breakdown

First off, what is market value? The best way to characterize it is what is the current going rate at the position, and what is somebody willing to pay. I understand the concept is subjective from one person to the next, but recent evidence would show that number was in line with Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson; being paid yearly averages of 45M, 39M, and 35M respectively.

In Prescott’s case, the yearly average of 40M he received was right in line with that. It was just behind Patrick Mahomes; as SI.com had reported that was what Prescott was looking for. With that understood as a precursor, it’s easier to deconstruct the motives of those who believe the Dallas Cowboys made an unwise investment.

“He needs to win a Super Bowl before asking for ‘Mahomes Money”

The quarterback market historically has never rested on a prerequisite that a player has to have won a championship before commanding top dollar. There have been several examples of quarterbacks who reset the market before hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. If you follow the recent examples, it’s plain to see how largely ignored that perception is.

A recent example is Derek Carr re-signing with the Raiders in July 2017. The Raiders awarded him a market-setting contract of 25 million dollars per year. Carr’s contract was surpassed by Jimmy Garroppolo a few months later in February of 2018, with a contract of 27.5 million per year after only six games with the San Francisco 49ers. Then merely weeks later, the Minnesota Vikings would sign free-agent Kirk Cousins to a slightly higher contract at 28 Million per year; only to be eclipsed the next year by Carson Wentz sitting at 32 Million dollars on a yearly average.

Earlier I mentioned the quarterback market’s history. The Baltimore Ravens evaluated the “worth” of a Super Bowl winning quarterback on two occasions, and each time was assessed in two completely different ways.

A tale of two Ravens

For those that recall, after the Ravens won their first championship (largely behind a historic defense and stout running game) they decided not to retain their Super Bowl winning QB, Trent Dilfer; allowing him to leave via free agency. In 2012, history would repeat itself for the Ravens.

Much like Trent Dilfer in the last year of his contract, quarterback Joe Flacco would lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl win over the 49ers. Fortunately for Flacco, the timing couldn’t have been better, and was given a then record-setting contract of 120 Million dollars over 6 years by the Ravens.

Flacco would make the Ravens question their investment almost immediately; tossing a career-worst 22 interceptions in 2013 and then followed by a sharp decline in QBR over the life of the contract. To make matters worse, Flacco was one of the worst QBs in the league in terms of EPA over that 6-year contract.

If there’s anything we can learn from these examples, it’s that not all super bowl winners are worthy of a market-value contract, and not winning a super bowl does not disqualify a quarterback from one either.

“Anyone can win with their offense” & “His numbers are because of the receivers.”

This conjecture doesn’t consider the output of the Dallas offense in Dak Prescott’s absence. There was a stark contrast in the Dallas offense in the games started by Andy Dalton, Garrett Gilbert, and Ben DiNucci. In examing the numbers from each game last year, (Per NFL.com) here’s how the team fared last year in games Prescott played in and how they fared in games without him.

The first statistic is 3rd down efficiency (3RD/E). On average with Dak Prescott, the Cowboys were converting 3rd downs at 47%. Without him, just 38%. In yards per play (YPP), Dallas averaged 6.5 YPP. In his absence, only 4.7 YPP. The biggest area where the Cowboys sorely missed Dak Prescott is on the scoreboard. With Prescott the Cowboys were scoring 32 points per game. Without him the team scored almost two touchdowns less, at only 20 points a game. Let’s not stop there.

For a wider scope of how Dak Prescott’s presence impacted the Dallas Cowboys positively, let’s compare the Dallas Cowboys in 2015. This was a year before Prescott arrived in Dallas and in 2016, a year in which he led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record, culminating in winning NFL Rookie of the Year.

It almost goes without saying, but the most pivotal moment of the Dallas Cowboys’ 2015 season was Tony Romo breaking his collarbone in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles. In the games Tony Romo didn’t play that season, the offense averaged 15 points a game and scored 7 points or fewer four times in that 12 game span. That’s 1/3 of the time.

That was with quarterbacks Brandon Weeden, Matt Cassell, and Kellen Moore. Surprisingly, you can’t blame the supporting cast either. Darren McFadden rushed for over 1000 yards, averaging 75 yards in the games Romo had missed.

It’s also notable that the Cowboys’ defense was pretty solid as well. They were among the league average in terms of yards per game and allowed the 4th fewest passing touchdowns. When you take all that into account and compare it to the next season where the roster was pretty much the same (Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott being the primary changes), it only illuminates the impact of Dak Prescott.

In 2016, the Dallas Cowboys averaged 11 points more per game than in 2015 with 26. The team scored 7 points or fewer just once. As for the defense, they were ranked about the same in terms of yards, at 14th.

In response to the notion that Prescott is not able to succeed without help, let me ask this question directly to the skeptics from a more global perspective: Which of the “elite” quarterbacks are productive without help on either side of the ball?

Patrick Mahomes plays alongside Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce with Andy Reid at the controls. It should also be stated that we saw a much different version of Tom Brady this past year when given more aid than he had in 2019 with the New England Patriots, in the form of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski.

Or allow me to ask another question: If you believe Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson don’t have enough help around them to win, why doesn’t that make you think less of them like you do Dak Prescott?

Whether you believe anyone can win with the Dallas offense or Dak’s numbers are only a byproduct of such; I hope these examples are enough to convince you and further drive the point that even a good quarterback needs help and a truly bad one can’t be dragged to success.

The Dak Myth

“Dak Prescott can’t beat winning teams.” 

Although this rationale is meant to be a strike against Dak Prescott, it reflects more heavily on the Dallas Cowboys. When you hold this same criterion to the NFL as a whole, it works in the favor of Dak Prescott. Nick Herrera put together this graphic showing the entire league from 2016-2019, and how they fared against teams .500 or better.

Dallas is right there just above the league average at 43.3%. The expectations in Dallas will always be high, with some expecting results like Kansas City or New England. Still, I’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would echo this sentiment about records against winning teams towards a group led by Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson. This despite both of those quarterbacks having almost the same amount of wins versus teams with winning records in this timeframe. 

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention the coaching element when addressing this narrative, since coaching is so important when it comes to winning against good competition. I find it strange that we can condemn Dak Prescott for something like this but in the same breath blame the head coaches in Dallas for the lack of team success. Thanks to graphics like the one referenced above, we can see where holding Dak accountable in this rhetoric, seems greatly exaggerated.

“He’s a good quarterback but not an elite quarterback.”

Much of the argument on what Dak should’ve been paid rests on the perception that he’s a good quarterback but not an elite quarterback. Again, that logic is subjective from one person to the next. Ordinarily when someone refers to an elite QB, it often refers to the same group of quarterbacks: The aforementioned Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson as well as Aaron Rodgers.

Since many do feel that there is a wide margin that separates those four quarterbacks and Dak Prescott, I wanted to put that belief to the test. Pictured below is a sampled comparison of the regular season output of each of these quarterbacks respectively (Dak Prescott included). This is to see where they all measure up since Dak Prescott has been in the league.

In comparing these key statistics, there are some controls in the interest of being impartial. For starters, I understand that Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes came into the league after Dak Prescott in 2017. I also understand that Patrick Mahomes only played in 1 game in 2017 and that year won’t be factored in.

In this sample, I’ve taken the season’s average of the statistics (according to profootballreference.com) in the graphic (Comp. %, TD %, Int. %, YPA, A/YPA, QB Rating, and QBR) and then added the average as a whole number, to divide it by the number of qualifying seasons played.

For instance, Deshaun Watson’s numbers are going to be accounted for from 2017-2020 and Patrick Mahomes from 2018-2020. Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are going to be accounted from 2016-2020.

Because there is such a variance in the number of games played amongst the group, cumulative numbers like total yards (YPG), passing touchdowns (PTD/PG), and interceptions (INT/PG), will be totaled and then divided by the total number of games played by each quarterback; giving us a per game average.

Since we are discussing the consensus elites, it seemed logical to incorporate how they perform in the clutch. For that, I calculated the 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives for each quarterback. I then divided it by the number of games played to give us a percentage (4QC% and GWD%) of how often these quarterbacks have brought their teams back in the 4th quarter or taken them down the field to win the game.

The first thing to take note of is every quarterback has about the same completion percentage at 65 or 66%, therefore no real difference. Looking at YPG, Prescott ranks 4th ahead of only Russell Wilson. That said, 4 out of the 5 quarterbacks are very close in this regard with only Patrick Mahomes being far out in front by a large margin.

Admittedly, there is some separation when it comes to passing touchdowns per game (PTD/PG) and touchdown percentage (TD %). The likely reason for the disparity is Prescott has yet to throw for over 30 touchdowns in a season, therefore lowering his percentage overall.

In interceptions per game (INT/PG) and interception percentage (Int%), Dak Prescott is pretty much dead center in the group; but you can see some contrast between the other quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers has 0.3 interceptions a game while Watson had the highest interception percentage of 2.3%.

The next three categories aren’t necessarily in Prescott’s favor (Y/A, AY/A, QB/RTG). This is especially true with QB rating, but that is also likely based on those passing touchdown figures. Dak leads only Aaron Rodgers in yards per attempt, but trails everyone else by a slim margin.

Lastly, the highlight of this sample is where Prescott compares in QBR, 4th quarter comeback percentage, and game-winning drive percentage. Prescott is third in QBR and in 4th quarter comeback percentage, while tied for first in game-winning drive percentage with Russell Wilson.

There’s one final statistic amongst the group that I hadn’t prior mentioned, but wanted to save it for last when addressing the subject of whether Dak Prescott is an elite quarterback or not. That statistic was accuracy.

Since 2018, PFR (Pro Football Reference) has kept track of a stat called bad throw percentage (Bad%). This stat calculates a percentage of bad or inaccurate passes to the intended receiver over the total number of passes thrown. In 2019 they added on-target percentage (OnTgt%), the exact opposite. This is the percentage of on-target passes thrown to the intended receiver.

Once again, Prescott is right there with the group. Using the same model to calculate the averages then dividing them by the qualified years, Dak Prescott proves that he belongs. He currently sits 4th ahead of Mahomes in on-target percentage, but has the lowest bad throw percentage in this comparison.

Is it now fair to say Dak Prescott is elite? I would say so. When you can see how he compares to his counterparts it’s hard to conclude otherwise.

“Dak makes too much money for Dallas to compete & Dallas should draft a QB to save cap space.” 

This might be the most prevalent rebuttal about Prescott’s contract. I’ll address the aspect of drafting a quarterback in a moment, but for now let’s focus on the concerns about the salary cap and the talent around Dak Prescott.

As it stands, the league’s salary cap will be at 182 Million dollars for the 2021 season. I’ll admit, I can see where someone can assume that Prescott’s contract at 40M per year will heavily weigh against a salary cap of 182M. However, two things have to be accounted for when discussing the salary cap.

First, the salary cap is set to heavily increase in the wake of new broadcast deals between the NFL and its partners. Secondly, just because the yearly average is 40M, that doesn’t mean it will account for that much against the salary cap every year.

According to spotrac.com, Dak Prescott’s contract will account for 22M dollars against the salary cap this season. It will then increase from 33M to 44M in the two seasons after; again, aligning itself with the proposed increase in the salary cap. In case you’re curious, Prescott’s cap hit of 22M against a salary cap of 182M, would only amount to 12% of this year’s salary cap. 

If some are still worried that the contract will force players off the roster or make the Cowboys unable to sign outside free agents, I’d like to remind you of how the Dallas Cowboys are currently constructed.

Recently the Cowboys haven’t been known to be large spenders in free agency. The team’s opted for mid to lower-tier free agents and then supplementing their depth through the draft. The last time the Cowboys spent large money for an outside free agent was on Brandon Carr 9 years ago.

It’s purely speculation, but I think it’s reasonable to say the concern over cap space is centered around Prescott’s contract inhibiting the Cowboys fromg etting outside help to fix a bottom-tier defense from 2020. Although that is understandable, the frugal spending of the Cowboys has recently impacted both sides of the ball.

Prime examples would be the Cowboys beginning the 2018 season with Allen Hurns and Deonte Thompson as primary receiving threats. One can’t forget the team heavily relying on bargains on the defensive side of the ball, with names such as Cedric Thornton, Nolan Carroll, and Benson Mayowa.

Finally, when you analyze the current defensive roster, there isn’t a single defensive player the Cowboys would have difficulty retaining if they so chose. When you understand who the Dallas Cowboys are, and the manner in which they build their roster, the worries about the cap space are largely unfounded.

The other part of this retort is that the Dallas Cowboys should have saved their cap space and drafted a quarterback with the 10th pick and use the savings to address the defense. But now that you understand who the Cowboys are as a front office, there wasn’t a good chance of that happening.

However, I did want to explore how slim the likelihood of drafting a viable quarterback in the first round was. I went back over the last 20 years and took a look at every QB drafted in the first round. In that timeframe, there have been 59 quarterbacks. The probability of finding a decent quarterback in the first round, let alone a great one, is far rarer than some might realize. 

Out of the 59 quarterbacks taken, only five of them have won league MVP (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Patrick Mahomes & Lamar Jackson). Surprisingly, only five have started in and won a Super Bowl as well (Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Patrick Mahomes). That’s only 8% in both of those cases.

When you lower the benchmark to merely making the Pro Bowl, only 25 of the 59 quarterbacks have been selected. That’s also considering those selected as alternates who have been mediocre in their careers such as Mitchell Trubisky and Teddy Bridgewater.

In case you’re wondering how many quarterbacks in the last 20 years have accomplished all three: A Pro Bowl appearance, a Super Bowl win, and league MVP; it has been just two. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. 

For a more staggering statistic, 33 out of the 59 quarterbacks taken since 2001 didn’t meet any of these milestones, a rate of 55%.

With that understood, hopefully we can all understand why letting Dak Prescott leave for a lottery ticket and cap space was never a sensible option. In the end, the Dallas Cowboys did the most sensible thing of locking up their quarterback. Only time will tell if one day he’ll find himself in the company of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes with a league MVP and Super Bowl win added to his resume.

LP Cruz