It can be a tall task to accurately assess your dynasty roster. You have to work through your personal biases and approach your squad with fresh eyes. How productive is your team? How old are your assets? Where do you stand compared to the rest of the league?
Answering these questions isn’t easy, but it’s necessary to get to the bottom of how to get to the top.
So I’ve written this article to try and help you figure out if you should consider yourself contending, rebuilding, or something in between. Hopefully, you’ll be able to use these tips on all of your teams to get an appropriate lay of the land. And, with a little luck, you can walk home soon with a dynasty championship.
An Honest Assessment
You cannot begin until you consider your team’s production as it stands today. At this stage in the offseason, I like to use a few metrics as a guide to assess my dynasty roster. First, I look at the projected point total for Week 1. I have a glance at the projected totals of the rest of the teams in my league at this point as well. This helps me understand how I stack up, provided optimal lineups are set by all. If they are, I can see where I’m likely to fall in Week 1 and throughout the season.
But this doesn’t provide the full picture. In fact, it’s not even close. Site projections fluctuate wildly, both in-season and in reaction to offseason news. Some move the needle too far while others don’t move it far enough. For example, Alexander Mattison, who has recently become the presumed starter for the Minnesota Vikings, has not yet been readjusted since Dalvin Cook was cut two weeks ago.
This particular league is PPR with bonus points for big plays. Six points per game is unquestionably low for Mattison. There are plenty of other examples of projections being flawed at this point, so take a closer look at your team and others. With this in mind, we’ll need to take more data into account.
Another consideration is how my players are ranked. Of course you’ll want to review dynasty rankings to determine your future viability. But you’ll also want to look at redraft rankings to figure out what can be accomplished this season. Any site of your choice will do, as long as you trust their work.
Here is my starting lineup for a team I just finished drafting.
This season, I’m a little concerned about Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba being the production monsters that I expect them to eventually become. Also, Marquise Brown will be missing his starting QB for some time and AJ Dillon’s offense should suffer after losing Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. And while I’m high on Deshaun Watson, David Njoku, and Miles Sanders, there is a world where they don’t work out in 2023.
I love this team in dynasty. It’s why I drafted the way I did. But I’m concerned that 2023 is too early to assume elite contention. I expect I’ll be somewhere in the middle, vying for a backend playoff spot in year one.
Now that I have a sense of where I stand, I can begin to make moves accordingly. I have plenty of young talent that should develop, but I also have a 26-year old running back in Sanders. If things go south in-season, I’ll look to move him first to load up for my contending window starting in 2024. But I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s move on to the next stage to help you assess your dynasty roster.
Contending, Rebuilding, or Stuck in the Middle?
After an honest assessment, I need to make moves that correspond with my evaluation. But those moves will differ depending on my goals and needs. Here’s how I go about it for each team:
The Contender
If I’m contending, I’m going all in. This means that age matters much less to me. I’m looking for high-end production across my roster, no matter how it comes. Draft picks don’t interest me. Picks can be traded or used to select good players, but I need guys to produce now. That’s unlikely with rookies who will join my team. While I don’t want to handicap my squad’s future, it’s also an acceptable strategy to sell out for a ‘ship.
Here’s an example of a starting lineup for a contender I own. Winning the championship last year is a nice added boost of confidence that I’ve assessed this roster correctly, but it also wouldn’t be too hard to see.
My running backs are strong. And with Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, and AJ Brown, my QBs would have to be pretty poor for me to consider a rebuild. Luckily, this team doesn’t have a weakness in any area, and my bench is loaded, too. Daniel Jones, Treylon Burks, Kyle Pitts, and even Michael Thomas and Rashod Bateman ensure that I’m pushing for back-to-back titles.
But the point here isn’t to brag. It’s to know that guys like Kelce, Adams, and Austin Ekeler are not trade candidates, despite their age. The elite production they provide each week is exactly what I’m looking for. Also, Burks, Pitts, Bateman don’t help me on my bench. There are plenty of teams who would be happy to send me an older asset for them. I also have the 1.12, which I’ll look to deal when our rookie draft kicks off next week.
With a contender, I need points now, however they come. And while this team is stacked, it’s not even close to what it could become with a few more moves to help guarantee that the title stays with me.
The Rebuild
It doesn’t always go well for my fantasy squads. In fact, sometimes it goes terribly. And right now, I’m stuck with one of the worst dynasty teams I’ve ever drafted.
We wrapped this draft in early June, so at this stage in my dynasty “career” I don’t really have an excuse. I went Bully TE early given the tight end premium scoring, but then focused on grabbing wideouts when RBs were the clear value on the board. It was a severe miscalculation that’s left me currently staring at this…
If you think that’s concerning, there’s not much to love on the bench either. The best steady vet I can point to there is, maybe, Tim Patrick. Otherwise, I’m looking at Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and some young RBs who haven’t proven anything in the NFL. It’s a massive disappointment and an immediate rebuild situation. Woof.
So, I took immediate action and dealt Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Damien Harris for a 2024 second and 2025 first, second, and third round picks. It’s a solid return, but one that totally nuked my chances this season. However, it felt necessary, even though those picks are likely to be pretty late.
Now, I’ll need to consider more deals. For one, Terry McLaurin is sitting at peak value right now. Quarterback Sam Howell is a big question mark, and I expect McLaurin’s value to regress this season. I recoup what I can before his price dips and I’m stuck holding a dying asset if I sell him now. He’s a great player whose value should rebound, but if I’m selling in-season, it’s likely not for what I can get right now.
Alexander Mattison is another great sell for this team. His value is sky high, but I also have confidence in him and his situation. If I can’t grab a 1st for him today, I’m okay holding and dealing him in-season. That’s also true of Tim Patrick, DJ Chark, and Logan Thomas. No vet is safe. If they produce at some point, I’m looking to move them.
The goal here is to stockpile picks and youth. Since this team has plenty of youth, the more picks I can get, the better. I may even look to deal Mark Andrews at a premium price to ensure that I’m ready to compete two to three years down the line.
Lost in Mediocrity
Here’s the third team I’ll throw out there. And, this time, you let me know what you think…
I think you’ll agree that the best way to describe this team right now is ‘mid’. My QBs are excellent, and I have Anthony Richardson and Mac Jones lurking on the bench. I love my young WR corps, too, with the trio of Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave. But my RBs, Flex spots, and TE are not bringing home the ship. This team will be lucky to make the playoffs.
Yes, this squad is in the midst of a rebuild, having drafted it last season, but it also illustrates the point that middling squads need to be rebuilding. If the point is to become the champion – and that should be the point – then there’s no need holding on to average talent. Darnell Mooney, Christian Kirk, and Gabriel Davis can all kick rocks on this team, especially if someone will offer me a fair deal.
Thankfully, this squad has a ton of first and second round picks next season, so I’m not worried. But even if I didn’t have that stockpile, I’d be looking to move anyone from my Flex, Mac Jones, or any of my RBs for draft picks. When I can honestly look at my team and realize that I’ll probably win a handful games but never compete with the elite, I’ll know that it’s time to tear it down. Here, guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones, Zach Ertz, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are the best I’ve got on my bench. And they’re not helping me do much of anything this season.
I’ve got to make moves to, once again, get younger and pile up those picks. Whether now or in-season, I’ll be sure to move 4-5 players. That’s especially necessary since the six ‘24 firsts and four ‘24 seconds will need slots on my squad. And if I can’t rid my roster of the middling talent now, I’ll just end up cutting those guys later on anyway.
So I’ve got a lot of work to do, even though I expect to compete in 2024. But to move this team from mediocre to magnificent, I’ll need to deal my butt off this year.
Conclusion
While we all want to win every year, there can only be one winner in your dynasty league. To assess your dynasty roster honestly and make moves based off of that assessment, therefore, is an essential part of the process. Though some of your good teams will become bad and your bad teams will turn good, those surprises are rare. To insulate yourself from remaining in the middle of the pack, take action and make moves. If you do, whether right now or in the future, you’ll be hoisting the championship trophy soon enough.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.