How to Fantasy Football: Drafting a Quarterback

How to Fantasy Football

Hardcore fantasy football players over-complicate their analysis at times. We overuse many advanced analytics, unique league settings, and do the utmost to prove ourselves right. In this series, I’m going to bring it back to the basics as we head into the 2022 NFL season. We will start at the most fun part of fantasy football: draft day. More specifically, when to draft the most important position on the field, which is the quarterback. Before we begin I have one statement to make. Stop drafting quarterbacks early!

QB None

First and foremost, let’s talk about which position scores the most fantasy points. Over the last three years, at least five of the top ten scorers were quarterbacks (in four point TD scoring settings). Seven quarterbacks amassed throughout the top 10 scoring players in 2020. Without a doubt, the quarterback position scores the most points in fantasy leagues. If you were to wipe your memory of everything fantasy football related, and came across this statistic, wouldn’t it make sense to draft a quarterback as soon as possible? In theory yes, but every position is not equal.

Positional Value

Having general knowledge about how many players are scoring a relevant amount of points is vital information. The phrase “*insert position here* one” can mean two things:

1. This player is in the top 12 at their respective position
2. This player was the best at their position

The way to differentiate the two is by the use of a simple article. The phrase “This player was A QB1″ is definition one: they were in the top 12 at their position. On the other hand, the phrase “This player was THE QB1″ means definition two: they were the best at their position. This continues on for every set of 12. “They were a QB2” is a player somewhere from ranks 13-24. “They were the QB2” means they are the second best at their position. So on, and so forth. With that out of the way, let me explain why each positions number rank is not equal to one another.

Difference in Numbers

Let’s use the year 2021 as our example for the rest of this piece. The average starting lineup consists of one quarterback (sorry super-flex crowd).

This inherently devalues the position compared to running backs or wide receivers. Although quarterbacks score more points, due to the nature of your starting lineup there is more availability at the position. Let’s take a deeper look into the 2021 quarterback rankings and ADP and how this should sway your draft strategy.

Josh Allen was the QB1 for the year and scored an astounding 23.7 points per game (PPG). This translates to Josh Allen having an average draft position (ADP) of 18.2 this year, according to Sleeper, or the middle of the second round. Jalen Hurts is on the opposite end of the ADP spectrum. Jalen Hurts was the QB9 and amounted 20.8 PPG. This lead to an ADP of 71.7, or the latter end of the sixth round.

I should let you know that PPG does not actually determine a players final rank, their total points do. Points per game gives a deeper look as to how they performed on a per game basis, and can be tallied to show a wide differential on a season long basis.

 

Quick question. Why is someone who scored only three less points per game, mind you still over 20 PPG, being drafted 53.5 picks apart? They have the same floor due to their rushing capabilities, and Hurts was gifted a real threat at the wide receiver position in AJ Brown. I’ll give you the answer to that in just a moment.

ADP Swap

Let’s take a look at two running backs with similar ADP’s to the quarterbacks we just mentioned. First up, going in the early second round with an ADP of 15.9, is Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a dual-threat running back who lights up points per reception (PPR) leagues every year. He scored 18 PPG last year, ranking him as the RB8. Looking into the sixth round, we find AJ Dillon with an ADP of 70.4. He scored 10.8 PPG, so he landed at the RB23 in PPR leagues. I did the math for everyone, so don’t worry too much about all the numbers that you are about to witness.

Math Hurts

You can only draft one player in each round, so which combo do you take? Josh Allen and AJ Dillon, or Jalen Hurts and Alvin Kamara? Assuming everyone plays a full season, because predicting injuries is impossible, here is how the PPG line up.

The duo of Allen and Dillon will net you 34.5 PPG, meanwhile Hurts and Alvin Kamara will net you 38.8 PPG. Now I know what you’re saying: “Mikey, it’s only four points. That’s not a big difference.” Yes it is, and I’ll show you why. A difference of 4.3 PPG is not just for one game, but spread across an entire season.

If you spread the 4.3 point differential throughout the entire 17 game season, you are scoring an additional 73.1 points over the course of the season. Like I mentioned before, running back talent drops off quickly in drafts due to the nature of the position and how many you need to start. Why waste a top pick on a quarterback, when someone of similar value will be waiting for you several rounds later. Don’t let name value persuade you into taking a quarterback early. Draft players in the later rounds who will score you just as many fantasy points, and put your early assets into what you actually need.

Decisions, Decisions, My Team Looks Like Precision Collision

The standard league has 12 teams on it. This means 12 starting quarterbacks, and 24 starting running backs (same goes for receivers). The chances you leave the draft and there is a starting quarterback left on the waiver wire are high. Not much can be said for the running back position. Not only are you starting double the players, but the often injured position requires maximum depth. All teams will be drafting four, five, or even six running backs. Whereas most teams will leave the draft with only one quarterback, or occasionally two.

There is always a clash between being as competitive as possible, but also having fun. At the end of the day, draft the guys you want on your team. This article is for the casual player looking for a competitive edge over their league-mates.

Also, shout-out to 50 cent for the inspiration on the heading title. If you’re into hip-hop, check out Crack a Bottle, by Eminem.