Former Browns QB Baker Mayfield is on his way to Carolina. He will look to replace Sam Darnold and prepare for his first game which is likely to be against his former team. Let’s look at some of the underlying stats of the Panthers players to see who, and how much, they stand to benefit from this trade going forward.
Overview
The assertion that Mayfield’s acquisition “immediately boosts the fantasy football value of all Panthers players” is an easy one to make, but it is also difficult to overstate. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold both entered the league in 2018, when they were drafted 1st and 3rd overall, respectively.
Per Football Outsiders, in 2018, Mayfield posted an 8.1% passing DVOA with the Browns (good for 14th among 34 qualified quarterbacks) while Darnold put up a -15.2% DVOA with the Jets (33rd). In 2019, Mayfield’s DVOA dropped to -9.8%, but still sat above Darnold’s -20.4%. This pattern continued in 2020 (5.1% vs. -32.2%) and 2021 (-8.0% vs. -31.6%).
While Mayfield’s four years in this dataset were all with the Browns, the variety of head coaches and offensive coordinators he worked with detracts from a potential argument that Mayfield is simply a system QB. Additionally, Mayfield’s “true passer rating” (provided by PlayerProfiler) exceeded Darnold’s in three of the past four years, implying his performance isn’t an artifact of the measurement used.
Baker Mayfield will likely make the largest improvements for the Panthers with deep throws (at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and red zone offense. Year-to-year, Mayfield had a better deep ball completion percentage than Darnold by between 10 and 20 percentage points. The career-long difference is close to 15 percentage points. Mayfield’s worst season in terms of deep ball percentage was his injury-constrained 2021, in which he completed 37.9% of those passes. In comparison, Darnold’s best season in this regard was 2019, in which he completed just 27.3% of such passes. Over their first four years in the NFL, Mayfield has completed roughly 57% of his red zone passes, compared to Darnold’s 50%.
D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson
The improvement in the quality of deep passes by having Mayfield under center will elevate primarily WR D.J. Moore, but also Robbie Anderson. Per Pro Football Reference, each receiver had an average depth of target of over 10 yards in 2021; Moore with 19 deep targets and Anderson with 11.
For fantasy football, this improvement should help in leagues with lower reception premiums and in those with big play bonuses – given the chunk yardage of these plays.
Mayfield’s higher red zone accuracy should also help Moore and Anderson. Per NFLSavant.com, the former received 25.86% of the Panthers’ red zone targets in 2021, while the latter received 17.24% of such targets. Moore and Anderson were also targeted in the red zone plenty in prior years, so we can expect this to be fairly robust.
Christian McCaffrey
RB Christian McCaffrey should benefit from a generally-improved offense with Baker Mayfield; relative to what he has seen in the past.
In 2019, McCaffrey’s last healthy season, the Panthers had the 31st-ranked passing offense by DVOA. Backing out career values from PlayerProfiler, McCaffrey averages 3.5 YPC when there are eight or more defenders in the box, 4.6 YPC when there are seven in the box, and 5.1 YPC when there are six or fewer. It’s likely some of this is driven by goal line and short yardage plays truncating the yards he can earn. It is clear McCaffrey should stand to benefit considerably from Mayfield’s ability to open up the field and force defenses to take the passing game more seriously.
Additionally, McCaffrey should benefit from the red zone improvements Baker Mayfield provides. In 2019, McCaffrey earned a career high of 25.86% of his team’s red zone targets. This, after receiving 23.19% in 2018 and 24.53% in 2017. Mayfield’s relative strength in this area of the field should allow McCaffrey to put up even more touchdowns here.
Other Offensive Players
WR Terrace Marshall and TE Tommy Tremble are in the next tier of Panthers pass-catchers, but I do not expect the change in quarterback to do much to alter their fortunes.
Marshall had an average depth of target of only 7.1 yards in 2021, and only 2 deep targets all season. I am skeptical that he will see much benefit on that front. While Marshall received 10.34% of red zone targets for Carolina in 2021, I expect that percentage to drop dramatically with the return of Christian McCaffrey. Barring an unfortunate injury, I still don’t see much of a path to fantasy relevance for Marshall this season.
Tommy Tremble had a quiet rookie season for the Panthers, putting up a 20/35-180-1 line in 16 games (11 starts). While Tremble had an aDOT of 8.1 yards and received 6.90% of the Panthers’ red zone targets, I don’t see much of a chance for improvement beyond the learning curve of NFL tight ends.
Ripple Effects
The Mayfield to Carolina news is also obviously helpful to Baker Mayfield himself. Instead of sitting out or spot starting for Deshaun Watson, Mayfield should be able to lead an offense with strong receiving options and a great pass-catching RB.
As discussed by Mikey Cannavo, the Panthers do not have a great offensive line. Mayfield’s upside is certainly capped, but he should be a reasonable QB2 option with the potential to earn himself a contract extension. As recently as this month, managers in dynasty superflex leagues were drafting Mayfield in the late 13th round in startups at QB34. Anyone who picked him up so far this year should be quite pleased with themselves.
This trade is also good for a few other players: QB Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, and Geno Smith. While it seemed unlikely Mayfield would be willing to play for the Browns if Deshaun Watson were suspended, the removal of that possibility should help increase Brissett’s value in superflex leagues; as should the fact that Sam Darnold was not included in the trade.
Seattle QBs Drew Lock and Geno Smith are currently on course for a training camp battle to determine this season’s starter. While Ian Rappaport reported that the Seahawks were uninterested in acquiring Mayfield, this should put those concerns to rest. I am fairly high on Lock (and have him rostered in more than a few dynasty leagues), so this news is certainly encouraging.
Finally, for the sake of completeness, this trade is obviously awful for QB Sam Darnold and quite bad for QB Matt Corral. Given the brutal trade market for Mayfield, I doubt the Panthers will find someone willing to take a chance on Darnold at his price.
While it is nominally an open competition between Mayfield and Darnold, it seems like the writing is on the wall for the new QB. While it is not outside the realm of possibility that both Mayfield and Darnold are gone by 2023, at the very least Corral’s chances of starting in 2022 should be effectively gone; and the rookie will also likely cede valuable practice time to the two veterans.
Good read. Well written. Man I feel for Moore has the best QB of his career probably but it’s baker. 😂 let’s see if he can be productive.