Is Arch Manning the QB1 in the 2026 NFL draft?

The name Manning echoes through the world of football. It carries a weight few families can match. It’s a legacy built on championships, command, and success at the highest level. Now, the spotlight shifts to Arch Manning, the latest to inherit the family’s expectations. 

Yet, while his last name may open doors, it won’t throw touchdown passes or read SEC defenses. After a promising debut in 2024, Arch enters the 2025 season with the full-time starting job at Texas and a national spotlight fixed firmly on him. As buzz around his NFL future grows louder, one question looms large: is he just the next Manning, or is he ready to become the quarterback of the 2026 NFL draft class?

Arch Manning: Legacy and Background

When it comes to the quarterback position and legacy, few names stir the conversation quite like Manning. We’ve seen Archie, Cooper, Peyton, and Eli, but now we are seeing the heir to the football legacy — Arch Manning. Arch, son of Cooper, nephew of Peyton and Eli, is a five-star recruit out of New Orleans. While the surname is going to attract headlines, what matters most now is the tape.

Redshirt Season

Arch decided to commit to the University of Texas under head coach Steve Sarkisian. During Arch’s first year, he did what few five-star quarterbacks are willing to do in today’s era of football. He sat, he learned, and he developed, taking a redshirt season.

Arch appeared to follow the Manning trend, prioritizing development at the collegiate level. For Manning, the redshirt year wasn’t a setback, it was a setup. One that positioned him for long term, sustained success.

Redshirt Freshman Season

The set up was no more evident than in the 2024 Texas Spring Game. Arch’s spring 2024 performance was an electric preview. In the Orange and White scrimmage he was a stellar, going 19-for-25 with 355  yards. He threw for three touchdowns to just one interception, including two separate 75‑yard strikes. Unfortunately for Arch, Quinn Ewers remained with the program and was set to remain the Longhorns starter once again in 2024.

That game didn’t just display stats, however. It provided a small window, a peak behind the curtain of what is to come with further development. It told the nation that the Longhorns were sitting on what could potentially be the next face of college football, and perhaps, the NFL.

While Arch was not the starter during the 2024 season, he still got reps. Whether it be in late game clean up duties or filling in when Ewers was recovering from injury, Arch was able to produce tape. This brings us to our conversation today.

Arch finally steps into the spotlight as Texas’ full-time starter in 2025. As the buzz around his NFL potential grows louder with each rep, scouts and insiders remain split.

Has Arch Manning shown enough to be penciled in as the QB1 in the 2026 NFL draft? Or is his breakout season still a season away? Many even question if Arch should declare in 2026. Let’s take a deep dive into Arch Manning and talk about my areas of confidence, areas of growth, and project where he could be this time next year.

2024 Statistics

In clean up duty with a couple spot starts, Manning played well in limited action.

As a passer, Manning played in 10 games, completing 61-of-90 attempts with a 67.8 completion percentage. He threw for 939 yards at 10.4 yards per attempt. Manning finished the season with nine touchdowns to two interceptions, with a 184 passer rating.

As a runner, Arch carried the ball 25 times for 108 yards (4.3 yards per carry). He had four touchdowns with two fumbles, losing one.

For a primarily backup QB with spot opportunities, these numbers on paper validate the polish many have eluded to, but what does the tape say?

Looking at the Tape: Areas of Confidence for Arch Manning

Stature

Physically, Arch checks every box. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds he possesses NFL-ready size and build. He has a thick, athletic frame which appears capable of adding additional functional mass to bolster his “body armor” to endure long, physical seasons. While he has not played a full season as collegiate starter, there have been no durability concerns through his limited sample size.

Mental Processing

Unsurprising considering the family bloodline, Arch Manning is an advanced processor. He demonstrated good pre-snap recognition deciphering man versus zone, identifying coverages, and locating weaknesses in the defense based on pre-snap looks and leverage.

After making pre-snap reads, Arch showed the ability to adjust protections, check plays at the line of scrimmage, attack leverage, and exploit matchup advantages. What may be most impressive is the speed in which Arch processes this information at this stage of his development.

Post-snap Arch flashed the ability to make multi-professional, full field reads getting to backside reads and check downs when front side concepts are taken away. This play has a lot of encouraging aspects to it, but I want to focus on his full field processing. He goes from front-side hitch, to the front-side wrap in, and back-side post. No receiver was able to uncover. Arch’s internal clock begins to tick. He begins to climb the pocket, but is disciplined keeping his eyes downfield. During this time, Isaiah Bond recognized the zone coverage and cuts his route short to locate the soft spot between zones. Arch sees Bond throttle down and gets the ball out while climbing the pocket. The eye discipline can be seen even more clearly from the tight angle. 

In run pass options (RPO’s) and read option concepts, Arch consistently makes the correct read rarely taking a loss. He does a good job identifying the conflict defender and riding out the mesh point forcing the conflict defender to commit.

On this play we again see a few encouraging things, but we’re going to focus on the read option processing. Arch is reading the conflict edge defender on this play. He has to put this ball in the belly of his running back creating the “Mesh Point”. He then needs to ride out this mesh until the conflict defender choses his track. The conflict defender can either contain the edge or crash down the line of scrimmage. If the defender holds the edge, the ball needs to be given to the back. If the defender crashes the line of scrimmage (LOS), Arch needs to pull the ball and get upfield as a ball carrier.

In this instance the conflict defender crashed the LOS and Arch pulls the ball getting upfield as designed. This creates a one on one situation between Arch and the safety. Arch uses a hesitation stutter step in space and blows past the safety for the explosive touchdown. From the tight angle you can see how fluid he is at the mesh point reading the conflict defender, but also how fluid of an athlete he is. It’s an outstanding explosive play from Arch.

Ball Handling

During 2024, Arch had two fumbles, one of which Texas lost. However, and more importantly, Manning displays impressive ball-handling skills that reflect both strong fundamentals and natural awareness. Whether he’s navigating the pocket, executing a mesh on a read-option, or escaping as a runner, he consistently holds the ball securely with exceptional two hands awareness.

As a runner and a passer, Arch consistently keeps both hands on the ball when maneuvering tight spaces. This reduces the risk of strip-sacks or fumbles under pressure. He shows a disciplined habit of resetting with two hands on the ball before delivering throws, maintaining control and mechanical consistency. This includes scramble situations, where he protects the ball with a high and tight carriage, limiting exposure to defenders.

Arch’s attention to detail, ball security, and smart decision making make him incredibly reliable with the ball in his hands. His smooth handling on play-action and RPO concepts gives him a steady and polished presence under center that’s advanced at this stage of his development.

On this next play, nearly all of what we discussed is on display. It can be seen clearly in the tight angle so we will focus on this shot for this breakdown.

Arch gets to the back of his drop and feels this pressure off the edge. Naturally, he wants to climb to create distance. In doing so, he pulls that ball to the opposite half of his body where the edge rusher cannot poke at it. In doing so, Arch keeps both hands on the ball in the pocket keeping a firm grasp on the ball at all times. He gets out on the scramble, but again, you will notice that he keeps both hands on the ball high and tight to his body maximizing ball security. He then gives a pump fake on the run followed by a shovel fake to the outside receiver.

This eye candy causes the outside corner to bite and crash on the receiver on the sideline. Meanwhile, Arch is tucking this ball high and tight making a break for the end zone. He tight ropes the sideline and makes a play for the pylon, but was ultimately ruled out at the one yard line.

This play exemplifies a lot of what Arch does well as a ball handler and manipulation with the ball in his hands. Arch created this entire play setting up a one yard plunge on the following snap.

Pocket Presence

Another area Arch is well beyond his years is in his pocket awareness, presence, and poise — something that’s rare for young quarterbacks. Even in limited action, his comfort in the pocket shines bright. He’s feels pressure well and manipulates the pocket or evades pressure all while keeping his eyes downfield. He rarely brings his eyes down to pass rushers abandoning passing windows. This was shown really well in the last clip we had broken down, but I’m going to bring another to the table where he does dang near the same thing.

Similar to the last play, the tight angle is the shot we want to focus on. On the snap, the defense gets as close to a free rusher as it gets. Arch feels it and sees the white jersey barreling towards him, but he trusts his running back to pick it up and keep his eyes downfield. The back picks up the blitz well and washes the edge up field away from Arch, but the defender gets a hand on Manning’s shoulder pads. At this moment we see Arch do what should be familiar.

Arch holds that ball high and tight with two hand awareness shuffling away from the pressure and continuing to keep his eyes downfield. Once the rusher clears Arch’s throwing airspace, he resets his feet with his upper and lower body working in sync and finds his receiver open on the crosser in stride across the middle. Arch calmly delvers a strike leading his receiver and allowing him to turn upfield and pick up additional YAC yardage before being tripped up from behind.

Most impressively, when a throwing window is about to open and there is a defender crashing in, Arch doesn’t flinch. He regularly stands tall and absorbs heavy contact in order to deliver throws downfield. These aspects of his game were even seen from head coach Steve Sarkisian where he made the following quotes:

“The biggest thing I saw from Arch … was dialing into playing the play and keeping your eyes up,” began head coach Steve Sarkisian. “His eyes are always up. That’s not normal for a guy with that little game experience.” 

On this play, his willingness to take a lick in order to deliver downfield is on full display. On the offensive line we have a 5-0 (pronounced five-oh) call. This means we have five offensive lineman in protection with no tight ends and no backs to chip or pick anyone up. On the outside, Texas has five receivers out wide.

Mississippi State is showing a six man pressure, meaning this is cover zero with no safety help on the back end. However, this also means there will be a free rusher that Arch needs to account for. In this instance, the defender with the longest track to the quarterback will be unblocked and Arch knows this.

The widest aligned defender is the edge to the short side of the field. He is left unblocked. When you’re hot like this off the edge, Arch knows the ball needs to be out and out early or he’s taking a sack. From the offensive standpoint, the receivers are running slot fade with a seam and a hitch all to the field. Arch knows he has a shot with the slot fade versus man because his slot will have a free release and there is no safety over the top meaning he can get the ball out early without fear of a safety taking an angle and getting involved at the catch point. All of this is being processed by Arch pre-snap.

Once the ball is snapped, Manning gets to the back of his drop and waits until the last possible second to let it fly. He stands tall in the pocket knowing the edge is going to get home and delivers an accurate ball downfield and taking a hard hit to the ribs in the process.

If you’ve ever played the quarterback position you know how devastating these shots can be. Yet, to be an elite pocket passer, you have to be willing to take hits like this to deliver downfield. Manning has shown time and time again that he is more than willing.

On the back end of this play you will see that after processing all of this and executing it at a high level Arch delvers an absolute beauty of a ball to the slot fade for the explosive touchdown.

In the pocket, Manning’s internal clock is tuned up and his timing is advanced. He is exceptionally composed and rarely bails pockets prematurely. He has shown to be poised, precise, and patient in the pocket. All of which rare to see in a young quarterback, especially one with just two career starts under his belt.

Pocket Mobility

As already previously illustrated, pocket mobility is another underrated aspect of the young Manning’s game. We already discussed how composed he is in the pocket. Yet while showing it, we also saw how fluid and composed he can be when navigating it. He slides laterally with purpose, climbs the pocket when edges collapse, and stays throw-ready. He does a good job of keeping his base during these movements allowing him to quickly deliver throws when a window presents itself.

Both inside and outside the pocket his movements are subtle but effective to evade pass rushers and find clean platforms to get his throw off. The poise, control, and efficiency of his movements in the pocket give him the look of a quarterback who’s been well-coached and who understands the rhythm and timing required to win from within the structure.

Playmaking

While the opportunities have been limited, Arch has flashed his capabilities as a playmaker. Manning’s style as a playmaker is more of a quiet calculated approach. He’s not frequently a wild off-script creator. However, he shows a mature understanding of when to break structure and extend a play without putting the ball in harm’s way. Due to his quiet style of playmaking it can easily be undervalued or overlooked.

His football intelligence, creativity, and movement skills make him highly effective at avoiding sacks and escaping collapsing pockets to create second reaction throws. Once into second acts, he parlays his creativity by creating passing windows, locating receivers down field, and making off-script circus throws when needed.

His ability to blend structure with just enough improvisation makes him dangerous when plays break down. He won’t wow with circus-style plays every week, but he consistently makes smart, timely plays in chaos.

Decision Making

Arch’s decision-making reflects that of a quarterback who grew up around the game. He processes it with a calm, controlled mindset. At his heart, he is highly aggressive, but he is also calculated as a risk taker.

Manning balances calmness and urgency really well. He understands when to live to fight another down and when he can be aggressive. Though, there are still some times he will get over-aggressive, and we will get into those later. Even under pressure, he avoids reckless decisions. This is evident with only two interceptions and three total turnovers on the season compared to 13 total touchdowns.

On this play, Arch recognizes out of this trips bunch set that the safety will carry with the post and the receiver has the entire left half of the field to work with on a deep shot. Manning puts this ball up into the left side of the field with enough air allowing his receiver to track it and secure the catch in the back of the end zone. Arch put this ball where he knew the throw was either his receivers or nobody’s. He gave his guy a chance and it paid off big for a touchdown.

Mechanics

Manning has a natural, efficient rotational throwing motion with repeatable mechanics which he can expedited under duress. His upper body is locked in with a quick, clean, and compact release. His rotational mechanics and arm flexibility allow him to manipulate arm angles outside of structure and off platform.

In his lower half, Arch’s footwork is clean and smooth. His upper and lower half are in sync with his lower body following his eyes really well always keeping him throw ready. He plays with a balanced base, efficient weight transfer, and has great sequencing working from the ground up.

On this play, Arch wants to get the ball to the deep hitch at the top of the screen. He turns his back to the defense to sell the play fake, then takes a three-step-drop and sets his feet. Manning hitches once while reading the leverage on the initial read, but identifies the hook/curl defender is in the window. He then takes his eyes to the opposite hitch and sees that hook/curl defender is reacting to his eyes and out of position. Arch then sets his feet and delivers a strike to the near side hitch with anticipation for a chunk gain and additional YAC.

Watching it from the tight angle, it’s important to watch his release and the lack of unnecessary wasted motion. His upper and lower body are in sync throughout the rep and Manning remains ready to throw at any moment. The moment he transitioned his eyes to the opposite hitch he was into his throwing motion and getting the ball out while staying on time in the play.

Arm Talent

Arch possesses high level arm talent. He generates strong arm strength allowing him full field access to stress defenses vertically. He also has outstanding throw power and velocity to drive the ball outside the opposite hash and make tight-window throws into coverage. Manning controls the pace of touch passes really well. Arch is able to control the throttle of his throws layering balls over defenders with touch.

Another area that he has flashed is in his ability to throw from multiple platforms and adjust his arm angle when necessary. However, it does affect his accuracy on occasion. While he’s capable of off-platform throws and creative arm angles, he doesn’t rely on them. He knows he has the tool in the bag, but only uses it when the situation requires it.

On this throw Arch was able to push this ball 60+ air yards down field for a deep strike to Isaiah Bond.

Accuracy

Accuracy, it’s one of the main calling cards of the Manning family, and Arch walks the same line. He shows the ability to be accurate at every level of the field, even when forced off his spot. He’s shown the ability to hit receivers in stride to maximizing yards after the catch.

There are some blips on the radar that are out of character (we will get to those later), but overall he is an accurate passer who largely gets the ball on his receivers’ frame.

Manning has also shown the ability to throw with touch between layers of the defense, an advanced accuracy benchmark. I believe with a full off-season learning and growing with his receiving core, this area of his game will only become more dangerous in 2025.

Rushing Ability

While not often labeled as a dual-threat quarterback, Arch certainly has mobility to his game. Designed quarterback runs won’t be a fixture of his offense, but can certainly be mixed into a game plan to throw the defense a change up.

With the ball in his hands, Manning’s a smooth, deceptively fast runner with long strides and above-average athleticism. In man coverage, if defenses aren’t disciplined, or if rush lanes present themselves, Arch is capable of gashing a defense. In the open field, Manning has great burst, runs with confidence, and is wiling to lower his shoulder for extra yards.

As he continues to grow into his frame and get more comfortable asserting himself physically, his ability to extend drives and create explosive plays with his legs will only become more of a weapon.

Intangibles

As one would expect, Arch Manning has the leadership skills that translate at the next level. He’s coached by legacy, but remains true to himself. Through the course of a season, Arch demonstrates a controlled demeanor and temperament. Whether it’s a scoring drive or a stalled series, he never seems to get carried away by the moment. Never getting too high or too low.

Arch Manning: Areas for development

Sample Size

One of the biggest question marks facing Arch Manning right now is going to be answered in 2025: sample size.

With only two career starts and fewer than 100 passing attempts, Arch remains untested over a full season. Additionally, most of his tape has come against inferior opponents. While the flashes were undeniable, the sample size and the level of competing loom large leaving Arch largely unrated against quality defenses.

Mental Processing

For all of Arch’s promise and polish as a processor, he still has areas where he can improve. While the mental flashes are encouraging, he’ll need to string together consistent processing, production, and poise against high-end SEC defenses before locking in a top, possibly the top, draft grade in the 2026 NFL draft.

If I am knit picking, which is what we have to do during these evaluations, there are a few times he let corner blitzes get home, whether he wasn’t seeing them or wasn’t reacting fast enough. They happen to everyone, even his uncles, but it is an area he will want to show improvement during 2025.

Decision-making

Similar to Arch’s mental processing, there are high-level decision-making skills evident on the tape, but again, there is room for growth. 

Manning has an aggressive mindset and loves going for the defense’s throat on every play. This has led to explosive plays, but it has also worked against him.

There are times Manning is willing to turn down underneath routes waiting for intermediate or deep routes to uncover. There are also times that he will choose to target the deeper route into coverage rather than a receiver in the intermediate portion running open. This is even true in concepts specifically designed to open the underneath route. If the coach is giving you a check down, do not be afraid to use it. The age old saying in scouting is “you won’t go broke taking a profit”.

On the other hand, if a play is designed to uncover a specific receiver and you get the look you want, I would like Arch to stick to the plan.

On this play Texas is running a “Dagger” concept, which is designed to use a clear out go-route to uncover the dig route behind it. The vertical threat carries the safety and the middle field zone upfield, vacating the middle of the field for the dig. However, Arch targets the clear out go.

Watching the body language of the receiver, you can see even he was surprised the ball was thrown to him. Ultimately there are worse things than an incompletion. However, if Manning ripped the dig as the play was designed, this is a 15+ yard pick up. The kicker? It’s 3rd and 8 and you’re not in field goal range. A first down was left on the field on this play.

Finally, holding the ball has allowed pressure to get home and force ill-advised, turnover-worthy throws. Arch needs to be more content taking a profit on underneath routes when they present themselves. He can get caught trying to squeeze all the juice out of every play.

On this play, Manning had the slide route almost immediately – and had it for the vast majority of this rep. However, he keeps his eyes downfield looking for more. When faced with pressure, he forces the ball and ends up throwing one of his two interceptions on the season.

Accuracy

While I believe Arch can be an accurate passer, there are more unexplained misfires on tape than I am comfortable with. These instances have happened at all levels of the field, short, intermediate, and deep and on in-breaking routes and out-breaking routes.

On this play, Arch is high over the middle and the ball gets popped into the air for his second and final, interception of his season.

On this throw Arch is targeting the running back up the near sideline. He’s wide open, but Manning misses the throw leading.

On this rep, even though the mechanics are clean, Arch just pushes this ball too far outside and it falls incomplete.

On this throw, Arch under-throws this deep shot allowing the defender to get involved at the catch point. If he led the receiver better and placed this ball out in front of him it would have had a chance to score a touchdown.

There are also times that his ball placement can make his receivers work for it or lead to incompletions. This is an area he will want to be prove he can be consistent over the course of an entire season and larger sample size.

On this throw, Arch is targeting the stop route at the top of the screen. Ideally, this ball would be placed on the outside shoulder so that the defender has to work through the receivers body to make a play on the ball. Unfortunately, Arch puts this on the wrong shoulder and allows the defensive back to get involved at the catch point. Fortunately, the receiver still secures that grab.

On this throw, Arch puts the ball on the wrong shoulder on the screen. This ball needs to be on his upfield shoulder, but it’s placed on his downfield shoulder.

On this play, Manning misses on a check down to the running back out of the backfield. At first I thought the ball was tipped by the defensive lineman, but it wasn’t.

On this throw, Arch is trying to lob this throw into the end zone to play the leverage of Matthew Golden, but it ends up nowhere close. This ball is in a more ideal location for the defender to make a play on the ball than Golden. Some sort of miscalculation took place here.

These instances might be overblown and knit-picky because of his sample size. However, there are more than I cared to see given his low total of 90 total pass attempts and I feel they need to be talked about.

As I mentioned, there are a number of great throws on tape. And at this point, I lean that Arch is more of an accurate quarterback than inaccurate. However, all we have is the tape, and the tape right now paints a different picture.

Manning needs to be more consistent in his accuracy, but must also increase his precision and ball placement on leverage throws. There are instances he will target the wrong shoulder, make receivers work for throws unnecessarily, and allow defensive backs to recover and make an impact at the catch point. All of which will impact receivers catch percentage and YAC opportunity after securing the catch.

Player Comparison

Finding a player comparison for Arch Manning can be a bit tricky. When considering the body of work, the play style, and the tools, there is one name that rose above all the others. That is, Los Angeles Chargers starting quarterback Justin Herbert.

Both players share a similar play style and have similar skillsets. Both check all the boxes as a franchise quarterback and are highly productive pocket passer. And, both also offer the modern day mobility to open the playbook.

Neither are traditional dual threat quarterbacks, but both can scoot when the opportunity comes knocking and can create for the offense outside of structure. Arch does come in a slightly smaller frame, roughly two inches shorter and weighing 10 pounds less. However, they keep the same relative build and everything else checks out.

Arch Manning versus the 2026 class

The 2026 quarterback class has the potential to be deep at the position. Some have more experience, some have more flash, but Arch’s upside remains undeniable. If he meets or exceeds expectations in 2025 and declares, he will draw early first-round attention and be firmly in the conversation to go first overall.

Yet, that is the burning question scouts will be searching for an answer to all season: Will Arch declare?

The new College Football Playoff format, a deep receiving corps, and continuity under Steve Sarkisian offer plenty of additional reasons to return in 2026. It would also align with the Manning family’s patient, development-first model. Eli and Peyton both returned for extra seasons in college. All of these circumstance point to one fact.

Don’t consider it a lock that Arch is even a part of this class come next April.

Final Thoughts

There’s no doubt Arch Manning has the tools, mindset, and the makeup of a future NFL starter. He’s not a finished product, but his ceiling is as high as any quarterback in the country. What he lacks in reps, he makes up for in raw command. After taking the entire offseason to refine his game knowing he will be “the guy”, he now has an opportunity in the 2025 season. His 2024 cameo forced national intrigue, but 2025 should paint a clearer picture.

I believe Arch will elect to stay for his senior season with the Longhorns. However, whether he enters the draft in 2026 or waits until 2027, one thing’s clear: take away the last name, and you’re still left with one of the most intriguing quarterback prospects in college football.