Joe Mixon: Unreal and Unfortunate

Joe Mixon has been the biggest heartbreaker in the fantasy football industry; at least in my experience. Coming off an injury-riddled year, Mixon looks to add the much needed upside we have all been waiting on for these past few years.

Joe Mixon has been real unfortunate in his short time in Cincy, but now looks to finally take over the premier role in 2021. It is make or break time for Mixon, plain and simple. Averaging a career 4.1 yards per attempt, Mixon hasn’t exploded over the course of a full season like most expected.

Mixon had a career year in 2018, breaking over 200 total fantasy football points (FFP) mark; and he did so in only 14 games. That year, Mixon saw a career high in rushing yards, rush TDs, catches, and receiving yards. It seemed he was making extraordinary progression in a lackluster offense, but 2019 saw his numbers drop over a 16 game span.

Mixon’s yards per attempt would drop, along with his total yards and touchdowns. This was a trend that scared a lot of people. We all know Mixon was stuck in a Bengals offense that sustained some of the leagues’ worst numbers.

Enter Joe Burrow.

2020 was supposed to be the year for Mixon. He finally had an offense that wasn’t incompetent led by former Heisman winner Joe Burrow. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t end up that way.

2020 started off very rocky for Mixon; seeing a ceiling of 36.1 FFP, with a floor of just 5.1 FFP. The Bengals were hoping to finally take that next step offensively last season, before seeing two devastating injuries to both Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon.

It hurt. It hurt so bad we saw a majority of snaps go to now Buccaneer, Giovani Bernard. We saw continued success from WRs Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, but Mixon never seemed to regain his footing to support even high end RB2 numbers.

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Entering 2021, Joe Mixon needs to provide steady numbers and solid production to return any kind of value next offseason. Whether or not that happens of course remains to be seen, but it has never been a gamble worth taking. He’s finished as a low RB1 only once (RB10), and had only one high end RB2 season (RB13). After that, he hasn’t finished inside of the top 30 (RB49 and RB34).

None of these numbers offer the elite upside we look for when acquiring running backs; but it offers a scary floor that could decapitate your team in a matter of weeks. This isn’t a gamble worth taking unless you can acquire him for RB3 prices; which in most cases, you can’t.

Joe Mixon is a player that I’m avoiding in dynasty leagues, even while it seems like the offense can only get better. Everything has to go Mixon’s way in order for him to be a sturdy rock in your RB2 spot; which hasn’t proved itself to be anything other than a headache in most case scenarios.

Fantasy football is a week to week game. Any player that can threaten to score only five points is not one I am interested in at a key position. I really think the Bengals could catch fire, but with all the signs pointing towards them moving to a pass heavy offense, it seems Joe Mixon could find himself on the backburner.