Arch Manning entered the 2025 season as the Heisman favorite and the face of college football. The sophomore signal caller led No. 1 ranked Texas Longhorns into Columbus, Ohio, to take on the reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes. And with it, carrying the weight college football and the responsibility of living up to the Manning family legacy on his shoulders.
Saturday’s big noon kickoff was supposed to be a potential college football playoff preview and Arch’s chance to make a statement. Instead, it turned into a sobering reminder that hype doesn’t guarantee production.
Texas fell 14–7 to Ohio State in front of the Horseshoe crowd, and Manning’s performance was at the heart of the story. While there were flashes of promise, the concerning moments far outweighed the encouraging ones. Walking away from this game the Longhorns are faced with far more questions than answers heading into their week two matchup with the San Jose State Spartans. Let’s get into where it went wrong and areas for improvement specifically with Arch.
Arch Manning: Film Breakdown
A Disastrous First Half
The first half of the matchup could not have gone much worse for Arch Manning. He was inaccurate, ineffective, and Texas struggled to move the ball. Arch went into the break 5-of-10 with only 26 yards and no touchdowns. The Longhorns were only able to produce 79 total yards of offense and struggled to convert on third down. All of this accumulated to a scoreless first half for Texas where the offense failed to cross the Ohio State 40-yard line.
The Buckeyes’ defense deserves plenty of credit. After losing a significant portion of their defense to the 2025 NFL draft, the unit stepped up to the challenge. Their front four generated consistent pressure, forcing Manning into hurried throws and keeping him uncomfortable in the pocket. But this was about more than simply creating pressure. Their disruption never allowed Manning to find his rhythm, miss open receivers, and sail throws downfield.
A Late Surge
To Arch’s credit, he settled in during the second half where he went 12-of-20 with 144 passing yards and a touchdown to Parker Livingstone giving Texas life late in the fourth quarter.
The talent and skillset that had so many intrigued with Arch were on display over the second half. This was true on the scoring drive where arm strength, touch downfield, and composure were all on display. He also flashed his athleticism, adding 10 carries for 38 yards.
However, the problem is simple. These positive moments came only after the Longhorns had dug themselves too deep of a hole. Manning’s late game improvement was encouraging, but felt more like something to build on going into next week than a late game heroic comeback.
Where it Went Wrong
Arch’s talent could be seen on the field. However, the concerns were evident and started as early as the first play of the game.
On this play, Arch used pre-snap motion to identify the defense was in zone. To the wide side of the field Manning has a perfect variation of flood, a zone beating concept, to find an answer post-snap.
At the snap, the single safety rotates to play midfield, leaving just two defenders to cover three receivers. The receivers are running routes at three different depths. The shallow slide flat, the intermediate sail, and the deep go. Arch’s responsibility is to read the mid-zone defender. If he falls back to cover the sail the flat will be open. If he steps up to play the slide, he will be able to rip the sail.
From the wide angle we see the mid-zone defender steps up to cover the slide, leaving the intermediate sail wide open for what should be an explosive connection. The problem, Arch skips this throw into the receiver throwing an uncatchable ball.
Moving to the end zone angle, we can see Arch’s eyes are glued to the mid-zone defender as they should be. We can see the moment he processes the defender crash on the slide and he immediately takes his eyes to the sail. Unfortunately, Arch is never able to work downhill towards his target. Instead, he actually drifts backwards away from contact on the release impacting his accuracy. The ball falls dead three yards in front of the receiver giving him no chance to make a play on the ball.
Unfortunately for Arch Manning and the Longhorns, the inaccuracy was not isolated to this play. It wasn’t limited to his 2025 season opener, however. There were plenty of instances of this in his 2024 tape as well. You can read more about that in my Arch Manning Summer Scouting Report.
While he was given benefit of the doubt in the 2024 tape due to limited sample size, it is concerning that it has carried over into the 2025 season.
Ball placement lacked precision with throws placed on the wrong shoulder. On this play, the ball is placed on the inside shoulder rather than outside resulting in an incompletion.
On this play, Manning pushes the ball to the sideline outside the numbers, but it’s incorrectly floated with too much air under it. Additionally, this ball is left on the inside shoulder of the receiver allowing the defensive back to undercut the route and come up with the huge interception. Between being floated and left inside, this is the worst case scenario when it comes to ball placement. This ball needed to be pushed more to this sideline and with velocity on a line rather than floated. Instead, it resulted in an avoidable turnover.
Another instance of Arch’s inaccuracy that really impacted the game was late in the fourth quarter on a mesh concept.
Mesh uses two shallow crosses to create natural “rubs” to open. The intended target is also coming from a wide outside alignment in a condensed bunch formation to create additional “rubs” at the release.
The receiver comes across the formation and has 10 plus yards of separation from the nearest defender with room ahead for yards after the catch. Arch has time in the pocket, but rushes his throw, not setting his feet, not aligning his lower half to the target, and opening his gate too wide. This results in an off-target throw being placed inside, on the incorrect shoulder of the receiver and falls incomplete. This was a potential explosive play left on the field due to Arch’s inaccuracy and ball placement.
Walking away from the tape, the accuracy was the biggest concern, and is the area Arch has to clean up heading into Week 2. According to ESPN Manning’s was credited with an off-target percentage of 37 percent, — the worst single-game mark by a Texas quarterback in the past decade.
Flashes of Talent
Despite the struggles, Manning’s ability was still evident. His mobility gave Texas a spark in the second half:
On a G/Y Power run, he followed his blockers patiently and beat the safety to the corner for an 8-yard gain.
On this play Texas is running G/Y Power. Along the offensive line, the play-side tackle and guard are working a double team to the Mike linebacker (middle linebacker). The center is down-blocking the backside 3-tech to prevent penetration or clean up. The backside tackle pinches down and seals the edge. And finally, the backside guard (G) and tight end (Y) are pulling across the formation.
The guard is tasked with kicking out the unblocked end man on the line of scrimmage and the tight end is tasked with wrapping upfield to block the bayside linebacker. Arch follows the blocks patiently and allows them to form. Once they do, this leaves Arch 1-on-1 with the safety. Arch is able to take the corner and get to the sideline for an 8-yard gain.
On a scramble, he evaded pressure, climbed the pocket, turned the corner on a defensive lineman spying him, and picked up 13 yards for a first down.
On this play, Arch Manning shows excellent composure to slide and evade pressure. He climbs the pocket, but cannot find an open receiver so he looks to escape. Ohio State dropped a defensive lineman to spy Arch, and Manning beats him to the corner. He turns the corner on him, gets upfield, and picks up 13 yards and a first down.
As a passer, he delivered two standout throws late:
A far-hash out route with anticipation, placed perfectly on the receiver’s face mask.
On this play, Arch is able to show his arm talent and anticipation as a passer. He rips an out to the far sideline, outside the numbers, and before the receiver came out of his stem. The ball is placed on the receiver’s facemask perfectly on the sideline making the catch easy.
A touch pass on a wheel route up the sideline, dropped right between the corner and safety.
On this throw, the ball was thrown to the tight end on the wheel with a great drop angle, appropriate pace, and outstanding precision between the corner and safety.
Final Thoughts on Arch Manning
It’s only one game, but Arch Manning’s first start was more concerning than reassuring. He looked tentative and erratic until the outcome was nearly decided. The same accuracy issues that showed up on last year’s tape resurfaced in Columbus.
For Manning, the path forward is clear. He must sharpen his accuracy, clean up mechanics, and consistently place the ball where his receivers can win. For Texas, the loss doesn’t end playoff hopes. However, it does show how much growth is needed.
The hype has carried Arch Manning this far. From here, the play has to catch up to the name.
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