Going into the off-season as an UDFA, we look at JuJu Smith-Schuster’s dynasty value in fantasy football going forward.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been an interesting case for fantasy football owners in the past few years. After being the WR1 in 2018, JuJu’s numbers took a nose-dive with an injury-riddled 2019 campaign. This year, JuJu has bounced back.
Despite having to share targets with Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, it was JuJu who was the better fantasy football play in PPR leagues; finishing the season as the WR16. He ended up with the second most targets on the team and was an elite player on third downs; finishing second in the NFL on third down conversions only behind Keenan Allen.
Even with the lowest aDOT (average depth of target) among wide receivers with at least 50 targets, JuJu was able to convert for fantasy football owners. He ranked 13th in the NFL in YAC (yards after the catch), and averaged over 14 PPG in PPR formats; good for 23rd overall for wide receivers.
If he can put up #2 WR numbers on a loaded team, he can excel in a different situation; and there’s many reasons for it.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has shown that he can handle the ‘big time’ moments as an NFL wide receiver. To me, those moments consist of making contested catches, and having the ability to convert inside the red zone. Nothing helps a player continue to get opportunities like converting during these situations, because it creates trust between the player, the quarterback, and the coach.
It may surprise you, but coming into this season JuJu had the third highest contested target rate among WRs since 2015. What makes that stat even better is that he has elite hands, which means those contested catches are practically a guaranteed thing. This season his drop percentage is only 3%, which is T-12th among all WRs with at least 50 targets.
The other part of my equation for ‘big time’ moments involve red zone efficiency, which he also excels at. With all of the weapons the Pittsburgh Steelers have, JuJu has been one of the most elite options in the NFL in the red zone.
Since 2018, JuJu has shown an innate ability to play winning football in the red zone. He’s converted (either scoring a TD or getting a first down) 21 times in the RZ, tied with Tyler Lockett which is good for 8th in the NFL.
So what’s JuJu Smith-Schuster’s dynasty value?
Despite what’s become popular belief among fantasy football circles, I believe the sky is the limit for JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’s already shown that he can become a WR1 and even in a crowded receiving room has shown he can be at minimum, a #2 WR.
I believe he will revert back to a #1 WR sooner than later.
When looking at the numbers, he compares amazingly well to another WR who had a back-and-forth start to his career. That player is Keenan Allen, and I believe that JuJu’s career arch can take the same turn as Allen.
For the first four seasons of their careers, the two were within 0.3 yards per reception of each other. On a per game basis JuJu and Allen were 0.5 receptions apart, within 5 yards of each other, and averaged the same amount of touchdowns per game.
Taking a look at this season, the numbers remain similar.
Per PFF, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Keenan Allen were #2 and #3, for the lowest amount of yards run per route with 8.6 and 9.9 respectively (minimum 50 targets). The two players have only a 0.2 differential in YAC per reception, while they each had an elite catch percentage.
Virtually every stat the two WR’s are comparable in, which makes Allen a great comp for JuJu Smith-Schuster going forward.
It’s extremely doubtful to see JuJu Smith-Schuster stay with the Steelers, and when he lands on a new team (with a quarterback that can throw the ball downfield consistently) I expect his career to take the same surge as Allen.
Being only 24 by the time the ’21 season starts, JuJu is going to be relevant for a long time. At the moment he’s being sold by many owners, and if the price is right you want to pick him up (as long as you aren’t giving away the farm).
To succeed in fantasy football you need to see trends before they become truth, and hit them while the price is right. Buying JuJu now is the move to make and his dynasty value going forward is only going to increase.
