As injures and age mount, what’s Julio Jones redraft value?
Julio Jones is an elite wide receiver. At the age of 30, he was still putting up absurd numbers, surpassing 1300 yards with six touchdowns in 2019.
He was a Top-5 WR in all formats, ranking as high as 3rd in half, and full PPR leagues.
Unfortunately, 2020 had different plans for him.
Jones started the season slowly, but as the middle of the season started coming around he looked like as elite as ever.
Between weeks 6-9, Julio Jones was the #2 WR in all PPR formats, only behind the Packers’ Devante Adams.
Despite being on a bad team, he did what he does best, and ball out. You could almost say that Julio was the spark the Atlanta Falcons needed, as the team was winless up until his week 6 outbreak.
Unfortunately, that may be the last of ‘peak Julio’ that we see.
2021 is going to be his age 32 season. Jones is an elite WR, but all of the numbers seem to go against him.
As recently as 2017, it’s been shown that the age 32 season is where production from elite receivers seems to take a hit. There’s still a decent opportunity for Julio to put up WR1 numbers, but the likelihood of being a Top-5 WR again start to become very slim.
So as age is showing to be a factor in his value, opportunity is becoming one as well.
The emergence of Calvin Ridley is a major thorn in the potential of a Julio Jones rebirth at age 32. The former has shown that he can handle the workload of a #1 WR, and he’s excelled at it in a pass-heavy offense.
Ridley finished as a Top-5 WR in all formats (and personally is WR5 in my dynasty rankings), showing that he is the heir apparent to Julio Jones in the Falcons offense.
Even though Ridley is the obvious WR of the future, the Falcons offense has shown the ability to keep two wide receivers fantasy-relevant.
While Julio finished as a Top-5 WR, Ridley also impressed hovering around a WR2 in all formats.
My expectations are that the roles get reversed for the two in 2021.
With Arthur Smith as the new head coach of the Falcons you can expect the offense to be as good, if not better, for fantasy purposes. The team is expected to keep Matt Ryan for at least another year and Smith’s scheme should do wonders for his consistency.
So what’s Julio’s redraft value?
As of right now I think that it’s a safe bet Julio Jones can manage to be, at minimum, a WR2 this upcoming season.
He isn’t worth a selection in the first three rounds, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him being taken in the 5th round of redraft leagues.
At the moment I believe Jones has the potential to be a Top-35 WR without an injury setback. He’s the type of player who has the ability to prove the numbers wrong.
Jones is a sell-high in dynasty formats, but in redraft his age doesn’t matter nearly as much. If you’re lucky, the stigma surrounding his age could have him fall in drafts; and you may find yourself with an elite player at a great value.
