Kansas City Chiefs: Ranking Playoff Opponents By Preferability

The Kansas City Chiefs head into the playoffs playing arguably their best football of the season. Excluding the Week 18 loss to the Denver Broncos, in which the Chiefs sat their starters, Kansas City has won their last three games by an average of 13.7 points. For reference, their six previous wins before that were by a combined 15 points.

Playoff seeding fell about as well as it could have for the Chiefs. The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, respectively, meaning they have to play each other before getting to the Chiefs.

Last year’s road to the Super Bowl featured wins against the first and second seeds, both on the road. This year, they will be guaranteed to only face one of them (if they even make it to the AFC Championship Game). However, even then, that game would also be at home.

Kansas City Chiefs: Playoff Opponent Ranks

With the Chiefs on a bye before the second round of the playoffs, here’s how we will rank their potential AFC playoff opponents based on difficulty.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is the best matchup on paper for Kansas City. The Steelers heavily rely on running the ball, as evidenced by their 27th-ranked passing offense. The Chiefs, however, allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Even in their Christmas Day matchup when the Steelers ran for 202 yards, the Chiefs dominated all other facets of the game and won by 19.

The Steelers offense as a whole has been struggling as of late. Pittsburgh has failed to eclipse 17 points in each of their past five games. That is not a recipe for success against one of the best defenses in the league and an offense that is starting to click. Plus, a matchup with the Steelers would mean the Ravens are eliminated.

2. Los Angeles Chargers

What is the biggest weakness for the Chiefs going into the playoffs? The wide receiver room is as healthy as it’s been since September. The same goes for the defensive line and potentially the secondary, if Jaylen Watson were to be activated in the next week. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt provide a solid one-two punch in the backfield. And while Harrison Butker has been a bit shaky since his return, he should be fully healthy by the time the Chiefs play again. That leaves one big question mark: offensive tackle.

D.J. Humphries came back from injury and played the entirety of the team’s Week 18 game against the Broncos. While PFF disagrees, the film shows that he had a pretty solid outing, especially when you consider he had played just one game in the past year. Still, Patrick Mahomes’ blindside protection remains the biggest concern for the back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

What does this have to do with the Chargers specifically? Well, they have the seventh-worst pressure rate in the entire league and the worst of any team on the AFC side of the playoffs. While they make up for it by allowing just the seventh-fewest passing yards, I trust Mahomes to carve up just about any defense if he has time to do so.

The Chargers are pretty well balanced on offense. While that is usually a good thing, the Chiefs are also fairly balanced as far as what they are able to prevent with their defense. That means that the Los Angeles offense doesn’t have any significant advantage over the Chiefs defense. When that’s the case, Kansas City tends to come out on top.

3. Denver Broncos

We’ve mentioned that pass rush is very important. And, the Broncos have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL. However, the Broncos would be sending a rookie quarterback into the most hostile stadium in the league to play a playoff game in below freezing weather.

Not only do they have a quarterback with zero playoff experience, they also have a head coach that hasn’t won more than one playoff game (in a single season) in a decade and a half. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a quarterback who has played 18 playoff games and a coach who has won multiple playoff games (in a single season) every year since 2019 and eight times as a head coach.

The Denver defense is better at stopping the run than the pass, which again, is an advantage for the Chiefs. Offensively, they aren’t great at any one thing. They are 16th in rushing yards and 20th in passing yards. That means, like the Chargers, they can’t punish the Chiefs in one facet or another. When it comes down to it, I trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid 100-percent more than Bo Nix and Sean Payton.

4. Houston Texans

The Texans haven’t been playing their best football as of late, but they still pose a bigger threat to the Chiefs than the first three teams on this list. C.J. Stroud led them to a playoff win last season as a rookie, and the bright lights likely won’t be as big of a factor for them this year.

While the Texans are another balanced offense, their defense is much better at stopping opposing offenses. They are 11th in rushing yards allowed and sixth in passing yards allowed. Although they are just 13th in pressure rate, they are fifth in sacks. When they come after the quarterback, they can produce big plays.

The offense, from a season-long perspective, has been about average. However, it has gotten worse as the year has progressed. Over the past five games, the Texans are averaging just 17.4 points. The lowlight of the struggle is a 2-point effort against the Ravens in a game that would have put them within one game of the No. 3 seed had they won.

Late in the season is the worst time to struggle, especially when a trip to Kansas City could be on the horizon. Still, there are a few teams I’d rather see instead of the Texans.

5. Baltimore Ravens

These last two teams are really just a matter of who you ask. They are both elite teams that could easily knock the Kansas City Chiefs out of the playoffs. The reason I chose this specific order is solely based on what I think Kansas City can do against both teams.

The Ravens offense is, for the most part, unstoppable. They are first in rushing yards and seventh in passing yards. However, their defense, is susceptible at times. The Ravens are best in the league at preventing rushing attacks, but are 31st in passing yards allowed.

That sounds like a recipe for a shootout. While the Chiefs offense hasn’t been what it was a few years ago, it still features Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid. I’ll take that trio against any other in a playoff shootout.

6. Buffalo Bills

The Bills, on the other hand, are slightly better at stopping passing offenses. Although they are just 12th in rushing yards allowed, they are 24th in passing yards allowed. That isn’t a huge difference, but it’s nothing to scoff at. If you’re going up against a Chiefs offense that is clicking on all cylinders, every little bit counts.

Also, the Chiefs are tremendous at finding a weakness and exploiting it time and again. While the Bills passing defense isn’t “good” by any means, it’s better than Baltimore’s. One extra stop could be the difference in winning and losing, especially in the playoffs.

On top of all that, Kansas City is 3-0 against the Bills over the past four postseasons, including the famous “13 Seconds” game. That streak has to come to an end eventually, right?