Michael Gallup returns for the Dallas Cowboys off of IR and could start as early as Week 9. Gallup is a talented WR, selected in the third-round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He’s also playing in one of the most explosive offenses. Will he be the next fantasy football league winner or a bust? Myself and Sheldon Hand make the case for each side.
The Case Against Michael Gallup – Pru Patel
Gallup injured his calf in the first regular-season game, which the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That was the only game the Dallas Cowboys have lost this year. The offense has since gone through the run game and called upon the pass when absolutely needed.
As indicated in Week 8’s GameDay Edge, Dallas Cowboys have gone with 12 personnel groupings (one RB, two TEs, and two WRs) 32% of all their offensive snaps which is third-most in the NFL. When you filter for just pass plays, the Cowboys only have played in three-wide receiver (11 personnel) sets for a total of 184 snaps so far this season. That is 26 snaps a game. So even if we give a healthy 20% target share to Gallup, he is looking at 5-7 targets a game, likely low percentage high depth yard pass plays.
Was this decrease in 11 personnel a function of not having Gallup, or the Cowboys changing offensive philosophy to a run-first offense? I think it was both.
The Cowboys want to limit the number of times Dak Prescott gets hit, and doing so means fewer passing snaps. Cedrick Wilson and others have filled Gallups third WR role admirably as well, so the Cowboys can afford to ease in Gallup. For redraft leagues, he will be a boom or bust, inconsistent play, which could lose you critical games.
The Case For Michael Gallup – Sheldon Hand
I will admit, the fact that this injury has lingered for so long has me a bit concerned. However, with Cedrick Wilson’s play and the emergence of Dalton Shultz, there was no reason to rush him back.
The Cowboys are 6-1, even winning a close game against the Vikings with Cooper Rush in at QB. They sat Dak Prescott in a conference game on Monday Night Football, being cautious and allowing guys to heal is important for the long run. That’s what they did with Gallup; he was given the time to heal fully from his injury, now it’s time for him to make a difference in our lineups.
Before his injury in Week 1, Gallup had 6 targets, 4 catches, and 36 yards in the first half of that game. He had one more target in the third before the injury happened.
In Gallup’s absence, Wilson filled in respectfully. Between Weeks 2-8, Wilson averaged 7.4 points a game and was WR54 in Half-PPR leagues. He scored three TDs in six games.
Those numbers aren’t eye-popping I realize, but Wilson is not Gallup, either. Michael Gallup will see the field more in two WR sets. Last year, Gallup led the Cowboys in snap counts and that was in a season where all three WRs stayed healthy. Gallup will not be a steady WR2, but he has a role in this offense and will see more targets than Cedrick Wilson. In Prescott’s healthy games (since 2020) Gallup has averaged 6.2 targets a game. Wilson averaged 3.1 during Gallups absence.
Mix that with the touchdown upside of this high-powered offense, and this is the guy you want as a WR3 or flex play moving forward. He was WR38 in Half-PPR leagues last year without Dak Prescott, and the offense hitting rock bottom.
Teams need to plan for Cooper, Lamb, and Zeke. This allows Gallup to fly under the radar! His boom games can win you a week and he should provide enough consistency to not kill your lineup on off weeks.
