Must-Draft Players from the NFL’s Lowest Scoring Offenses

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Is a player being taken too early in drafts because of their offense? Is he discounted in drafts because of the offense he plays in? In this article, I take a deeper look at players who are currently going in the top 100 of average draft position (ADP) that play on teams projected to score the fewest touchdowns this season. These are my must-draft players on bad real-life offenses.

I have five teams that are projected to score fewer than 30 total touchdowns this year. For reference, there were exactly five that failed to hit that mark last season: the Broncos, Texans, Colts, Jets and Steelers. We did see fantasy success from these offenses, like Garrett Wilson and Dameon Pierce. We also witnessed a very disappointing season from the consensus first overall pick in Jonathan Taylor. In total, there were 12 players on these teams that had an ADP inside 100 last season.

For 2023, the five teams that I have projected under 30 total offensive touchdowns are the Cardinals, Panthers, Texans, Buccaneers and Commanders. From these teams, there are currently nine players going inside the top 100 of ADP. Let’s dive into the numbers and see whether these must-draft players are worth drafting to your fantasy roster. 

James Conner RB ARI – FantasyPros ADP 64.5 (6.04), RB22

Anyone who had James Conner rostered last year knows he can still score fantasy points on a bad offense. The 2022 Cardinals mustered a total of 32 offensive touchdowns, tied for ninth-fewest in the league, in a season where they managed four wins and earned the third overall pick in the draft. 

In his four games to close out the season, which included just one game with Kyler Murray who was injured, Conner managed to score 23.4, 18.1, 25 and 14 points in full PPR. For the season, he finished as RB10 in points per game, just 0.2 behind Tony Pollard.

Conner has proven that he can still be a fantasy asset on a poor team and this year will be no exception. His current price tag is in the early to mid sixth round, making him a fantastic target for Hero-RB and Zero-RB builds. He is firmly in the group of must-draft players this season.

Marquise Brown, WR, ARI – FantasyPros ADP: 87 (8.03), WR35

If you are going to take a pass-catcher on a bad offense, you should take one who is going to earn a large target share. In 12 games played last season, Marquise Brown averaged 8.9 targets per game, good for 11th most for wide receivers. 

His best stretch of the season was the opening six weeks where he was the clear-cut WR1 with DeAndre Hopkins out. Brown averaged 10.8 targets and 18.25 fantasy points per game, making him WR7 in that span. 

His biggest question mark is how long will he have a backup quarterback under center until Kyler Murray returns? As long as Clayton Tune or Joshua Dobbs is commanding the offense, Brown’s weekly upside will be capped. He could be very frustrating to roster for the foreseeable future. There is a silver lining, however: Brown’s ADP. According to FantasyPros, Brown is going 87th overall as WR35. You are more than likely drafting him to be your WR3/4. 

I have Hollywood projected for 134 targets in 2023. That would average 7.9 targets per game versus the 8.9 he had a season ago. Under the assumption that he has poor quarterback play for half a season, I did not project very efficient numbers from those targets. Brown came out to 12.17 points per game, which would have been the WR33 last season. That average totaled out over a full season would bring him to 206.89 points, or WR22. With 130-plus target upside, I am looking to draft Brown at his current ADP.

Miles Sanders RB CAR – FantasyPros ADP 47.8 (4.11), RB18

Miles Sanders has the highest ADP of anyone in this article. Earlier this offseason, I thought I was going to be a Sanders guy going into 2023. As we have gotten closer to the season, I have become afraid to take Sanders at ADP. My biggest worry is that this Panthers offense could be so bad in Bryce Young’s rookie season that they are just not able to move the ball very often and red zone opportunities will be a rarity, leaving Sanders with a lot of empty stat lines. 

Now, you may say, “How in the world can you advocate drafting two Cardinals but then be scared of this offense and the only running back we have actually seen get paid recently?” I would say that is a very fair point. I would also say the best way for Sanders to pay off this year would be to keep his carries close to the volume he saw in 2022 while also getting his targets closer to where they were during his first two years in the league. 

Last year, Sanders eclipsed his career high in rushes by 80 and his career high in total touches by 50. I currently have him projected for 242 rush attempts, about a carry less per game, and 32 receptions on 46 targets, which would be his highest since his second year in the league. Sanders’ receptions took a significant drop when Jalen Hurts took over at QB, which is not surprising since rushing QBs do not typically target RBs. I believe Frank Reich’s game plan with Young will involve throwing more to RB. The number of targets distributed to the backs could determine Sanders upside, especially with the lack of projected touchdowns. 

Ironically, when I projected Sanders, he finished with almost identical numbers to last season: 12.73 points per game (12.7 last year) and 216.41 total points (216.7 last year). 

I am not taking Sanders at his current ADP, but I have found myself taking him as my second running back when he falls into the 5th round. 

Dameon Pierce RB HOU – FantasyPros ADP 48 (4.12), RB19

One of the few highlights of the Texans’ season last year was their fourth-round pick out of Florida, Dameon Pierce. He ran for 939 yards in 13 games and added 30 receptions, finishing as RB20 in points per game and RB27 overall. Pierce is more than likely viewed similarly to James Conner, a running back that we have seen produce on a bad offense. However, unlike the Cardinals, the Texans added backfield competition in the form of Devin Singletary. 

Pierce averaged 16.92 carries per game last season, totalling 220 attempts. No one else on the roster had more than 42. With Singletary bound to take some amount of work away, I project Pierce with 13.5 attempts per game while Singletary takes an average of 9. I also project Singletary to out-target Pierce 43.5 to 32.5.

My projections have Pierce finishing the season with 254 touches, just four more than he had last year in 13 games. I also have him scoring 10.06 fantasy points per game and 171 in total. Those marks would have made Pierce RB36 in PPG and RB25 in total points last season. Pierce is going a full round earlier than last season, and I project a significant decrease in workload.

I am avoiding Pierce at his current ADP and would rather take his new teammate Singletary, who currently has an ADP in late round 12 at 152nd overall. Neither, however, are must-draft players.

Rachaad White RB TB – FantasyPros ADP 65 (6.05), RB23

If you have listened to any episodes of the ADP Dudes podcast this offseason, you have probably heard my bust case for Rachaad White. For months, I have been scratching my head trying to figure out why people would draft him. He was a very inefficient runner behind a very poor offensive line and that does not look to be changing this year. His offense overall became significantly worse and the Bucs passing volume will significantly decrease. The main case for White is that there is no real competition for touches in that backfield. For me, that did not really tip the scales and make me want to draft him. 

Once I finished my projections, I realized that I basically projected him to finish where he is being valued. He finished as the RB24 for me in points per game, and is currently being drafted as RB23. I felt generous with his work in the passing game being at 46 receptions on 61 targets. I would bet the under, but Baker Mayfield has shown he will target his RBs. White will need every bit of 60-plus targets if he is going to squeeze into a low-end RB2 for fantasy. 

The biggest reason that you will not see Rachaad White on any of my teams this year is that there are plenty of backs with later ADP that I would rather have. This includes James Conner, Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, James Cook and David Montgomery, all of which are going after White according to FantasyPros ADP. To me, White’s absolute best case scenario this season is that he is a poor man’s Najee Harris. In other words, he’s someone who gets a lot of work because of a lack of competition but is very inefficient. 

Chris Godwin WR TB – FantasyPros ADP 69 (6.09), WR27

Last season, Chris Godwin had 142 targets, 104 receptions and 1023 yards in what felt like one of the quietest top-20 WR seasons I can remember. People in the fantasy industry seem to still be on him, but the majority of players are not. Those same people could be scared off of Godwin completely with Baker Mayfield now at quarterback.

The situation for Godwin feels very similar to that of Marquise Brown, highlighted earlier in the article. Poor quarterback play could limit the upside of Godwin. Still, I have him projected to earn enough targets that he can still be productive for fantasy. That means he’s still worth his ADP while also becoming your roster’s WR3 or WR4.

I initially had Godwin projected for over 130 targets, but felt that was too bullish. I settled in at 123, which is a 23% target share. His final line came out to 82 receptions/1010 yards/5 touchdowns, putting him at 213.71 points over the season. The 12.57 PPG would have made him WR32 last year, one spot behind Garrett Wilson. I believe the volume will be there to make Godwin a productive receiver this year.

If he is going to outperform his ADP, he is going to need to find much more than the three touchdowns he had a season ago. That is going to be tough now with Baker. Godwin is not 0ne of my must-draft players if I need to rely on him as my WR2 every week. However, I do think he is a fine play as a flex in PPR and can fill in as your WR2 during bye weeks and injuries. 

Mike Evans WR TB – FantasyPros ADP 74 (7.02), WR29

I have been saying this all offseason: Mike Evans 1,000 yard streak ends this season. He is entering his age-30 season and we witnessed a decline in production throughout that season. On the surface, Evans looked to have had a better season than his teammate Chris Godwin. Evans finished as WR17 in total points and WR 15 in PPG. These final numbers, however, were carried by a monster week 17 where fantasy managers either saw those points scored on their bench or their starting lineup of the consolation bracket. 

Through week 16, Evans had scored 176 points and 12.6 PPG, good for WR23 and WR31 respectively. Add in his outlier week 17 performance, and he rises to 225 total points and 15 PPG. This, once again, makes him WR17 and WR15 on the season. 

Besides the decline in production, it’s hard to envision Baker supporting two WRs this season. We may see a case of Evans and Godwin taking turns being fantasy relevant week in and week out. But if I had to put my money on one of these receivers producing, I will take the younger Godwin. 

I projected Evans to get a 20% target share. This only leads him to 107 targets, the lowest of his career. Finishing at 183 total points and 10.78 PPG would have made him WR37 and WR44 last season. I am off Evans this year even if he is going 3-4 rounds later than he was a year ago. Let someone else deal with him on their bench.

Terry McLaurin WR WAS – FantasyPros ADP 50 (5.02), WR20 &

Jahan Dotson WR WAS – FantasyPros ADP 96 (8.12), WR38

Even before the turf toe, Terry McLaurin was not a player I was actively targeting. He is coming off a 120 target and 1,191 yard season, but I believe the tide is shifting in Washington. 

Jahan Dotson managed to find the end zone seven times to McLaurin’s five, despite playing in five fewer games and having half the targets. I do currently have McLaurin projected as the leading receiver still for the Commanders. But there is no question that Dotson has much more upside for the 2023 campaign. 

We will find out what Sam Howell is capable of this season. Yet the odds are slim that he can support two receivers in fantasy. Our best bet for both of these receivers being starting caliber may actually be the new backup Jacoby Brissett. Assuming that Howell starts 17 games though, I do believe that Dotson will be the better fantasy option. Even if McLaurin finds a way to more targets this season, Dotson should still find the end zone more often and be more efficient with his targets. 

I am targeting Dotson in every draft I am in while I am letting someone else take McLaurin. 

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