Three previews for the Week 9 NCAAF games and our picks based on spreads for 10 games on the slate.
(20) Penn State vs (5) Ohio State
It’s a critical NCAAF Big Ten East battle this week in Columbus as 5-2 Penn State travels to 6-1 Ohio State. The visiting Nittany Lions are looking to move past an abysmal loss at home to Illinois last week.
Sean Clifford has been steady at quarterback, completing 64 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns. His favorite target is star wide receiver, Jahan Dotson. Dotson leads the team with 49 receptions for 563 yards and six touchdowns. Talented sophomore widout Parker Washington is the team’s second-leading receiver, but he’s been quiet the last three weeks. If Penn State has any shot at winning at Ohio State, they have to start running the ball better. A running back committee led by Noah Cain hasn’t been good enough all season.
The Buckeyes are starting to click on all cylinders right now. Signal caller C.J. Stroud is on a roll, completing 67 percent of his passes for nearly 2,000 yards in just seven games. Stroud has weapons everywhere to throw to, with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Phenom freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson has taken over the backfield. He’s averaging 8.8 yards per carry on 861 total yards and 14 touchdowns.
Penn State should be highly motivated coming in after a tough loss. A lot is riding for both teams in this one. I’m not sure Penn State has enough firepower to keep up with the Ohio State offense for four quarters on the road.
NCAAF Devy Players to Watch
- TreVeyon Henderson- RB- Ohio State: If it weren’t for Bijan Robinson, the TreVeyon Henderson bandwagon would probably be a lot louder right now. He’s been simply fantastic as a true freshman compiling 14 touchdowns in just seven games. Henderson is already an elite Devy asset and the best running back in the 2024 class.
- Jahan Dotson – WR- Penn State: Jahan Dotson leads Penn State in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He’s an explosive athlete with high-end speed. Dotson has improved as a route runner and has become a more reliable target this year for the Nittany Lions. Jahan Dotson is one of the top wide receivers in the 2022 class, and I believe is on track for day two draft capital.
Ohio State -18.5
- Brandon @hayeb3: Ohio State -18.5
- Brian @vandygrad92: Ohio State -18.5
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Penn State +18.5
(10) Ole Miss vs (18) Auburn
This is a big matchup in the SEC West as both teams still have a chance at winning the division, being tied in the loss column with Alabama. Ole Miss has already lost to Alabama, so they would need another loss by the Crimson Tide and cannot afford to lose to Auburn. The Tigers on the other hand have a game against Alabama at the end of the season and control their own destiny.
Auburn just came off of a bye week but before that, they had a huge win against Arkansas. Bo Nix had one of his best games with 292 Yards and two TDs. Auburn is in the top-50 in both total yards and total yards given up to their opponent.
Ole Miss continued their winning ways with a two TD win against LSU, where Matt Corral did not have his huge usual numbers. Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy lead the way for the team, combining for over 200 yards and a TD. The key player in this battle is Bo Nix, he has shown this year he has polar opposites in his play and if he has a good game Auburn will have a chance to take down the Rebels.
NCAAF Devy Players to Watch
- Matt Corral- QB – Ole Miss: After throwing his 1st interception against Tennessee, Corral had one of his lowest passing outputs of the season with 185 yards and one interception vs LSU. Corral did score a rushing TD and helped the Rebels to a 14 point win. He needs to perform well against Auburn and the 70th ranked pass defense to help stay the #1 QB of 2022 so far.
- Tank Bigsby – RB – Auburn: Bigsby and Auburn had a bye week after the big win against Arkansas, but Tank still was not overly impressive with 68 yards on 18 carries. He has not gone over the 100-yard mark since Week 3, but this is a good matchup against the 97th ranked rush defense. Bigsby is falling down the 2023 RB rankings and needs to start putting some games together to prevent his stock from falling more.
Auburn -3
- Brandon @hayeb3: Ole Miss +3
- Brian @vandygrad92: Auburn -3
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Ole Miss +3
Texas vs (16) Baylor
Both Texas and Baylor are coming off bye weeks, but are going in opposite directions. Baylor with two commanding double-digit victories, and Texas with two consecutive losses where they had the lead in the game. Texas seems like a long shot to compete for the Big 12 title. Baylor is just a game back from 1st place Oklahoma.
Baylor is top-25 in rush yards per game and is a great defensive team, allowing under 350 yards per game. That ranks 31st in the NCAA. QB Gerry Bohanon does not have a ton of yards, but is efficient and stays away from turnovers. He has a 65.9 completion percentage, with 12 TDs to only 1 INT.
Texas has explosive players on offense, but the last two games they have struggled in the 2nd half, giving up double-digit leads. Bijan Robinson has been limited in the 2nd half of games and QB Casey Thompson has crumbled under the pressure. The big questions in this game surround if Texas found a way to keep a lead, and will the Baylor defense be able to limit both Robinson and Worthy.
NCAAF Devy Players to Watch
- Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas: Before the bye, Robinson had another impressive game in a loss with over 170 total yards and three TDs. He is showing why he is considered one of the top Devy assets and is carrying the Longhorns even with collapses the past two games.
- Xavier Worthy– WR- Texas: Worthy has had an up and down freshman season, but has shown that he is the real deal. He could be one of the top WRs in the 2024 NFL Draft Class. He has four games under 45 yards and three games over 70. Consistency will be key for him over the next couple of years but he is a big-play machine that Texas needs to keep the offense balance with Bijan Robinson.
- Abram Smith – RB – Baylor: Smith is a Senior that did very little in his 1st three years.. This year he has been very productive with 785 yards 10 TDs, and averages over 7 yards a carry. In his last game vs BYU, he had 188 yards and 3 TDs. For the season he has six out of seven games with 85 or more rushing yards. Currently, Smith is not a top-10 RB prospect but if he continues his good play he could eventually find his name called.
Baylor -3
- Brandon @hayeb3: Texas +3
- Brian @vandygrad92: Bayor -3
- Joe @TheHQNerd: Texas +3
Other NCAAF Game Picks Based on the Spread
Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.