Every Sunday, Monday, and Thursday for the rest of the NFL season, The League Winners will be providing a ‘More or Less’ NFL betting segment. Each prop used in this article is set by our partner, Monkey Knife Fight. If you click here and use the promo code ‘WINNERS’ upon signup, MKF will match up to $100 dollars on your deposit for first time users. *Note* NFL betting lines are subject to change after the publication of this piece.
I will be following up on the success or failure each week. With that said, let’s get started.
NFL Betting: More or Less – Sunday 1 PM Games
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Daniel Jones: 239.5 Passing Yards – More
Whether this game is a blowout loss or a shootout, I think Daniel Jones is going to need to throw the ball a lot. He’s attempted at least 32 passes in each game this season, and I see no reason why he won’t continue to pass, even with his main pass-catchers dinged up.
Jameis Winston: 201.5 Passing Yards – More
Jameis Winston hasn’t cracked 150 passing yards yet this season, let alone 200. He has to at some point though, right? The Saints haven’t been in a ‘normal’ game yet this season. I think this matchup will allow us to see some NFL normalcy. I think the Saints coast in this game, but Winston should crack 202 yards, despite the recent trend.
Kenny Golladay: 59.5 Receiving Yards – More
Kenny Golladay has been a massive disappointment for the Giants. The team will need to rely on him in this game though. Don’t be surprised to see KG hit 60+ yards as the main component in this offense.
Marquez Callaway: 3.5 Receptions – Less
This preseason I was a big fan of Callaway, and still am. I just don’t think this offense will be quite where it needs to be yet. I think Callaway just misses this mark, and only secures three touchdowns on five targets.
Alvin Kamara: 79.5 Rushing Yards – More
I think the Saints rely heavily on Kamara in this game. While that could potentially be more in the passing department, I think there’s a good chance AK41 sees his first 100-yard game this season.
Saquon Barkley: 3.5 Receptions – More
This should be a smash spot. The Giants should have their struggles in this game, and I expect Barkley to have at least five catches in a game where New York is primarily playing from behind.
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott: 290.5 Passing Yards – More
Between this and the next prop, I think it’ll be close either way. I think Prescott slightly surpasses the 290 yard mark in a game where the passing attack will be the primary weapon against a tough Panthers defense.
Sam Darnold: 271.5 Passing Yards – More
As mentioned above, I think this prop will be close as well. Darnold has passed this mark in every game so far this season. The Cowboys defense has been stout against the run, and with CMC out, I believe the burden will fall on Darnold.
DJ Moore: 79.5 Reciving Yards – More
DJ Moore has solidified himself as the WR1 in Carolina yet again. He hasn’t had less than 79 yards in each game this season, and should be relied on heavily Sunday.
Ezekiel Elliott 66.5 Rushing Yards – Less
Elliott has looked better since Week 1, but the Panthers defense is also stout against the run. I think Zeke will be used as a blocker more times than not, and moreso in the passing game overall. I don’t expect Zeke to crack 60 rushing yards.
CeeDee Lamb: 5.5 Receptions – More
Lamb only had three catches last week. There’s no way he gets less receptions than that this week, and this is probably my most confident pick. Lamb should pass this without issue, especially with Cooper hurting.
Amari Cooper: 5.5 Receptions – More
I think this prop is extremely close. I see Cooper receiving at least five receptions, though game script could push him over the edge in this prop. I’m leaning that way, and depending on the Cowboys to rely on their passing attack.
NFL Betting: More or Less – Sunday 4 PM Game
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Teddy Bridgewater: 250.5 Passing Yards – More
The only game Bridgewater hasn’t cracked this mark was against the Jets, who have been a Top-10 unit against the passing game this season. The Baltimore Ravens are not that, and this should be easy for Bridgewater to pass.
Lamar Jackson: 210.5 Passing Yards – More
I’m pretty surprised how low this prop is. Lamar hasn’t passed for less than 235 yards this season. Don’t expect him to in this game, either.
Courtland Sutton: 64.5 Receiving Yards – Less
When this prop was 4.5 receptions, it was a smash for more. When it changed to receiving yards, I hesitated. Even with Jeudy and Hamler out, I think Sutton will succeed on volume, not yardage.
Marquise Brown: 4.5 Receptions – More
‘Hollywood’ Brown had a rough game in Week 3, dropping two wide open touchdown passes. He should bounce-back in Week 4 as Lamar’s favorite target.
Ty’Son Williams: 39.5 Rushing Yards – Less
Williams has only played on 50% of snaps this season. Though he’s actually been a great runner, the Ravens just haven’t utilized him properly. On top of that, the Broncos are the 2nd best team in the NFL against the run this season, averaging less than 60 total yards per game.
Mark Andrews: 4.5 Receptions – Less
I wouldn’t be shocked to get this wrong, but Andrews hasn’t caught more than five passes this season. The opportunities aren’t the same this year for Andrews, and the Broncos are good against tight ends. I see him catching four passes, making this close.
NFL Betting: More or Less – Sunday Night Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
Tom Brady: 315.5 Passing Yards – More
The Bucs don’t run the ball often, and don’t trust their running backs. Brady in a revenge game is a no-brainer for me.
Mac Jones: 265.5 Passing Yards – More
The Bucs defense is good, but have injuries in the secondary. I think Jones will slightly pass this mark, as the only way he won’t is if the Patriots hold a dominate lead – which I don’t believe happens.
Chris Godwin: 5.5 Receptions – More
This is an easy More choice. With Gronk likely to miss the game, and AB slowly being worked in, Godwin should merit at least six catches in Brady’s revenge game.
Leonard Fournette: 50.5 Rushing Yards – Less
The Patriots defense isn’t bad against the run, and the Bucs don’t like running the ball. I don’t see many situations where Fournette passes 50 yards rushing.
Jakobi Meyers: 64.5 Receiving Yards – More
I think Meyers will beat this mark due to the same reason as last week. The Patriots will be behind, and Meyers is their most talented receiver.
Mike Evans: 62.5 Receiving Yards – More
This is another prop where I feel like the mark could go either way. Evans usually isn’t a high yardage guy, but I believe Brady will want to prove a point against his former head coach.
