Every Thursday for the rest of the NFL season, The League Winners will be providing a ‘More or Less’ NFL betting segment. Each prop used in this article is set by our partner, Monkey Knife Fight. If you click here and use the promo code ‘WINNERS’ upon signup, MKF will match up to $100 dollars on your deposit for first time users.
Last week I went 50% on my picks, and am now a brutal 4-18. I didn’t expect a brutal rain storm, or maybe I could have been five of six on the day. At least now we’re trending in the right direction. Let’s take a look at this week’s game against the Packers and Cardinals.
*Note* NFL betting lines are subject to change after the publication of this piece.
NFL Betting: More or Less
Kyler Murray; 270.5 Passing Yards – Less
I’ll be shocked if Aaron Rodgers and company can make a game out of this one. I expect the Cardinals to get out to an early lead and cruise for most of the game relying on their rushing attack. I don’t think Murray needs to pass this yardage mark in tonight’s game.
Aaron Rodgers: 260.5 Passing Yards – Less
I think this one is very close, but I’m going with less solely due to the lack of pass-catchers Rodgers will have. He’ll primarily be relying on Randall Cobb, Robert Tonyan, and his running backs. I don’t see a way where this allows Rodgers to throw for more than 260 yards, but if there’s someone who can surprise me, it’d be Rodgers. Still, I’m taking the less here.
DeAndre Hopkins: 5.5 Receptions – Less
To me, this is the easiest pick of the day. Hopkins is banged up and is a legitimate game-time decision. I expect him to be used as a decoy and garner between 3-5 catches, but nothing more. At least, if he’s as hobbled as reports have suggested.
Aaron Jones: 67.5 Rushing Yards – More
I don’t have the greatest amount of confidence in this pick, but if the Packers want to keep this game close they will need to rely on the running game. Aaron Jones has proven he can be productive, even against the most stout run defenses. With so many receivers out, expect I expect it to be the Aaron Jones show.
James Conner: 48.5 Rushing Yards – More
If the prop line was higher, I would have picked Less. At less than 50 yards on the ground though, it’s hard not to pick More on this prop. Conner has seen steady usage with the Cardinals. In a game where I expect them to be winning, I also expect Conner to be relied upon.
Chase Edmonds: 45.5 Rushing Yards – Less
If this prop was for receiving yards, I would have been more inclined to take the over. Edmonds has only comfortably passed this mark against horrible run defenses, which the Packers aren’t. Chase Edmonds is just not a reliable ‘pure’ running back. He’s a scat back who can burn you through the air, but just isn’t big enough to be as effective on the ground. Knowing my luck he’ll destroy these numbers, but I’m going with my gut here and history of his usage so far.
