It’s the most wonderful time of the year again: NFL free agency. What will some of this year’s big-name targets do as they hit the open market? Let us know what you think!
Running Backs
Aaron Jones
It may be the Aaron Rodgers show in Green Bay, but Aaron Jones is really good at football. Since being drafted in the fifth round in 2017, Jones has proven to be one of the most talented and productive backs in the league.
After totaling 1,588 total yards in 2019 (to go along with a league-leading 19 total TDs), Jones was again a legit fantasy football stud in 2020. He rushed for 1,104 yards (4th-highest in the league) and 11 total TDs (7th-most in the league), en route to averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game (4th-most in the league).
Jones has shown elite vision as a ball carrier (his 354 true yards created ranks inside the top-10 among all qualified RBs), as well as an efficiency with the ball in his hands few in the league can match (5.9 yards per touch). Enjoying a healthy 14.6% target share (6th-highest among RBs) and averaging 4.9 true yards per carry, Jones is a true three-down workhorse back that has shown he can carry an offense if called upon.
With quality backup Jamaal Williams set to hit free agency, and rookie AJ Dillon waiting in the wings, there are rumors Green Bay could part ways with Jones and instead give Rodgers another weapon at WR that he desperately needs (although Davante Adams no doubt enjoyed being Rodgers’ primary target).
Plain and simple, Jones is just too talented and too vital to the Green Bay offense for them to let him walk after his rookie contract ends. My prediction is they will offer Jones a short-term team-friendly extension and keep him around as Rodgers’ tenure in Green Bay comes to an end.
Prediction: Green Bay
Chris Carson
Chris Carson is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football, regardless of position. You can read more about that here.
One of the toughest players in the league, whenever Carson is on the field, he simply produces. He sports the 2nd-highest production premium (+30.3) among all RBs, and his 4.7 true yards per carry cements him firmly in the RB1 territory for fantasy points per game (15.7). Carson’s bruising running style has led him to miss more time than some owners may like, but it can’t be denied how important Carson is to the Seattle run game.
With Pete Carroll coming out and saying Seattle wants to re-establish the run more next year, especially early in games, the Seahawks will again be one of the highest-volume offenses in fantasy. The only question is who will be taking the majority of those snaps.
While Carson has been the unquestioned lead back whenever healthy, Seattle does have some intriguing young backs such as former first-rounder Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas. If Seattle is content rolling with the backs they have, an established bruiser like Carson could be a very solid free agent addition to any team looking to add depth. If Seattle opts to bring back their workhorse, however, he could be returning to a suddenly crowded Seahawks backfield.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Kenyan Drake
A refugee from the Gase-era Dolphins, Drake seems to have found a home in the desert. After a mid-season trade that sent Drake out to Arizona last year, Drake exploded down the stretch, rushing for 643 yards (at a healthy 5.2 YPC) finishing as the overall RB3 over the second half of the season.
This year’s Cardinals with an experienced Kyler Murray and the addition of all-world receiver DeAndre Hopkins, fell short of expectations; but Drake himself put together a fine season in his first year as a day-one starter.
Drake gained 1,092 total yards (955 rushing yards) and scored 10 total TDs this season, operating as Arizona’s primary ballcarrier. While Murray’s ability as a runner makes him a threat anytime he touches the football and second year back Chase Edmonds looked serviceable at times this year, Drake looked comfortable operating as Arizona’s lead back, churning out some tough yards in crucial moments.
After a year for the pieces to gel together, Arizona may opt to bring back Drake, most likely on a shorter team-friendly deal, and allow Edmonds to continue to carve out a role for himself in their offense. It would not be out of the question for Arizona to draft a running back later in the draft as well.
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
Marlon Mack
Jonathan Taylor is a stud, and arguably a top-five dynasty back in his own right. Before Taylor stepped in, however, it was Mack who served as Indy’s clear lead back for the past two seasons.
After a 2017 season that saw the rookie Mack play sparingly (93 rushing attempts for 358 yards), Mack totaled just under 2,000 rushing yards (literally 1,999) on 442 carries over the next two seasons. The main knock against Mack aside from his limited involvement in the Colts’ passing game, is his durability and now lengthy injury history.
Still only 24 years old, Mack had already battled various injuries (though it is worth noting most were upper body injuries) before tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of this season; paving the way for Taylor to emerge as the team’s workhorse.
Obviously Taylor is the back to own in Indy moving forward, but it is entirely possible that the Colts saw enough out of Nyheim Hines (862 total yards, 7 total TDs), especially in the receiving game, to let Mack walk this offseason.
Any lower body injury for a veteran running back is an obvious red flag, and this is especially true for a torn Achilles, but if teams are looking to add a solid depth piece at running back, Mack would be a great (and relatively inexpensive) free agent addition.
Prediction: Houston Texans
Phillip Lindsay
What Phillip Lindsay has ben able to accomplish in the NFL is nothing short of incredible. After being undrafted in 2018, Lindsay received an invite to camp with the hometown Broncos (Lindsay went to Colorado, and was born in Denver). Lindsay went on to become the fifth undrafted rookie in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards, beating out third-round pick Royce Freeman en route to a Pro Bowl nod.
In his second year, Lindsay became the first undrafted rookie to ever rush for consecutive 1,000 yard seasons; putting to bed any talks of him being a flash in the pan. Last offseason, however, Denver went out and signed veteran back Melvin Gordon to a hearty two-year $16 million deal relegating Lindsay to a timeshare.
Gordon ended up being a serviceable back (but looked every bit of 27 years old), and Lindsay battled injuries, only appearing in 11 games. With Gordon expected to return to a similar role next year (in which he looked far from dominant), it would be a major surprise if Lindsay ends up anywhere other than Denver.
Prediction: Denver Broncos
Leonard Fournette
Playoff Lenny is having himself a hell of a postseason, but it will be interesting to see how Tampa Bay handles their backfield this offseason.
Tampa Bay clearly went all in this year when they signed Tom Brady, and they have spared no expense in surrounding the legend with an arsenal of weapons. In addition to returning Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay brought in Brady’s old friend Gronk, and signed Antonio Brown when he became available. The Bucs also pounced on the veteran Fournette when Jacksonville released the former fourth-overall pick at the end of camp in favor of undrafted rookie James Robinson (which seems to have worked out petty well for the Jaguars).
Fournette’s typically huge volume (he handled 800 touches over 2.5 seasons in Jacksonville when healthy) took a major hit in Tampa due in no small part to the presence of Ronald Jones II. Jones, the 2018 second-round pick out of USC, has improved in each of his three pro seasons, and looks to be able to handle an increased workload if Tampa Bay chooses to commit to him.
This leaves Fournette and his pedestrian 3.8 yards per carry in an interesting situation as he enters free agency. If a team is willing to kick the tires on Fournette, he could end up being a great bargain, but it’s far more likely the Bucs retain him for a reasonable price.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson II
Chris Godwin
After a true breakout third season in 2019 (86/1,333/9), Godwin had a relatively down year in a loaded (read: crowded) offense in Tampa Bay. In addition to returning Godwin and the veteran Mike Evans, Tampa Bay brought in Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski to compete for targets from Tom Brady.
Evans, predictably, led the Bucs in targets with 109, while Godwin finished a distant second with 84. Gronkowski finished third with 77 targets in his first season back from retirement, and Brown received 62 targets in just eight games. This comes after a season that saw Godwin absorb 121 targets to Evans 118 with gunslinger Jameis Winston at quarterback.
While Gronkowski and Brown both are on the wrong side of 30, and Evans will be 28 when next season starts, the 25-year-old Godwin shows as much upside as any receiver in the league. If Tampa Bay decides to keep their dynamic duo in tact, and if Tom Brady returns for his 22nd professional season (and who are we to say Brady can’t do something?), then Godwin could continue to see his usual high-quality target share he has enjoyed with the Bucs.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kenny Golladay
Detroit has a history of not paying their star players (see: Calvin Johnson), and they are in the midst of a total franchise overhaul that started with the firing of HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn. With longtime Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford also rumored to be on the trading block, we could be looking at a totally different Lions organization in 2021.
Rookie phenom D’Andre Swift and third-year TJ Hockenson are the only major skill position contributors on offense (aside from Stafford) that are under contract for 2021, and Detroit has some major decisions to make regarding their free agents. Marvin Jones Jr. is also set to hit free agency this year, and would be a great bargain for his production value (Jones’ +15.4% production premium this year made him the WR17 in that category).
The majority of Jones’ production, however, came while Golladay was forced to miss time due to hamstring/hip injuries). When Golladay was healthy in 2019, he led the league with 11 total TDs and 1,190 yards on 116 targets (in addition to an 18.3 yards per reception, which was 4th-most among all receivers). The 6’4” Golladay is one of the most physically imposing receivers in football, and an absolute difference maker when he is on the field. If Detroit is willing to pay to keep their veteran playmaker around, whoever is under center for the Lions in 2021 will have a strong trio of weapons around them.
Prediction: Detroit Lions
JuJu Smith-Schuster
The roller coaster that is JuJu’s dynasty value doesn’t appear to be coming to an end anytime soon, with the star receiver entering free agency this offseason. After four seasons in Pittsburgh, JuJu could very well find himself in a new home, and the 24-year-old will have plenty of potential suitors.
While not as eye-popping as his 2018 season (111/1,426/7), JuJu enjoyed a nice bounce-back (97/831/9) in 2020 after a nightmare 2019 that was marred by injuries and a revolving door of QBs. This rebound for JuJu can be partly attributed to the return of Ben Roethlisberger, as well as Pittsburgh opting to return JuJu to his preferred slot receiver role.
In 2018, JuJu was able to dominate in the slot opposite of Antonio Brown. In 2019, however, Brown left town and the team moved JuJu outside in order to fill Brown’s massive shoes in the offense. Injuries and QB issues aside, JuJu looked noticeably uncomfortable playing outside receiver, and his value torpedoed.
This year, Pittsburgh enjoyed a loaded receiver corps (Diontae Johnson and rookie Chase Claypool each enjoyed career-best years) and JuJu was able to operate almost exclusively out of the slot (he led the league with 711 snaps out of the slot).
JuJu has shown that he is a tough, physical receiver who is willing and able to make tough plays over the middle and serve as a security blanket for any QB. If Pittsburgh ends up letting him walk, however, a team willing to throw a bag at JuJu will no doubt utilize him as the talented playmaker he is. It also can’t be overstated that he is still just 24 years old.
Prediction: Miami Dolphins
Will Fuller V
Obviously Houston is in total free-fall right now, but if they are able to retain their disgruntled superstar Deshaun Watson (which I wrote about here) then they would no doubt bring back one of his favorite targets in the uber-athletic Fuller.
Fuller’s unique field-stretching ability and prowess for tracking deep balls adds a dimension to the Houston passing attack that other teams simply can not keep up with. Despite his 2020 season getting cut short due to a suspension, Fuller had 53 catches for 879 yards and 8 TDs through just 11 games and looked every bit the part of an alpha WR1.
Though there are valid concerns of his durability, Fuller has legit week-winning upside anytime he steps on the field. If Houston is able to mend their relationship with Watson, which should obviously be at the top of their priorities this offseason, then Fuller (who Watson has publicly said he would like to have back) should remain with the Texans and in turn remain an ultra-high ceiling WR1 for the 2021 fantasy season. If Watson leaves, Fuller would be a hot commodity on the open market.
Prediction: Houston Texans
Corey Davis
Nearly written off as a bust, as well as a fantasy football punchline, Corey Davis somehow packed his breakout season and comeback season all into one. The fifth overall pick in the 2017 Draft has enjoyed a career year in 2020, turning 92 targets in the run-heavy Titans offense into a very solid 65/984/5 line.
Davis scored single-digit fantasy points in just three games in which he played, and quietly displayed one of the highest floors among fantasy receivers. Those who have stayed on the Corey Davis roller coaster were rewarded handsomely this year for their patience, and it will be interesting to see what happens to the 25-year-old this offseason.
Before this season, Tennessee declined Davis’ fifth-year option, making him a free agent. If Tennessee is sold on the wideout’s production in their offense, namely his elite run-blocking ability, they could still bring him back, but Davis could find himself in an intriguing spot if he lands on a new team via free agency. After many wrote him off, Corey Davis could just be getting started. The Mad Titan lives.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
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