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NFL Survivor Pool Guide – Week 3

An NFL survivor pool is a wonderful thing. Much like sports betting, it gives casual fans something to cheer for when they don’t have the time for fantasy sports. As simple as it sounds to pick one winner each week, there is a lot more that you must consider.

Each week, I will discuss point spreads, ownership rate, injuries and weather. This will help you decide which team you should choose for your pool. I’ll offer a multi-faceted approach that will give you several options for each week. These options are based on your level of risk tolerance. This is My NFL Survivor Pool Guide – Week 3 Edition.

As a side note: The League Winners also run a Writer’s Only Survivor Pool as a control group. You can find the group here to follow along. I will refer to the pool in this series and will provide updates to show how we are personally playing each week. After all, you can’t trust our advice if we don’t follow it ourselves.

NFL Survivor Pool – The Heavy Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs, 19.9% ownership (-12.5) vs. Chicago Bears, 0.01% ownership: The Kansas City Chiefs got back in the win column last week after stumbling out of the gate. In Week 3 they face a Bears team that is terrible on both offence and defense. A 12.5-point spread in this one is being kind to the Bears. The Chiefs are going to win this game handily and will likely be resting their starters by halftime. Risk= 0

Dallas Cowboys, 17.8% ownership (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals, 0.01% ownership: The Cowboys have been the class of the NFC through two weeks. This week they get the bottom-feeders of the NFC, Arizona. The Cardinals should be in the mix for the number one pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and Dallas should have little trouble dismantling them in Week 3. This is another game that should be wrapped up by halftime. Take the Cowboys without a second thought. Risk = 0

San Francisco 49ers, 18.63% (-10.0) vs. New York Giants, .%: The San Francisco 49ers have looked strong to open the season and despite Brandon Aiyuk being out this week, they should have no issue with a Giants team that has struggled to stop even the lowly Cardinals offence. This is the Thursday Night game, so if you jump on the 49ers bandwagon, you can have a win in the bag before the week officially kicks off. Risk = 2

Jacksonville Jaguars, 22.6% ownership (-10.0) vs. Houston Texans, 0.01% ownership: The Houston Texans have looked better than expected, while the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked worse than expected. With that in mind, the Jaguars are the far superior team. The general public is not buying into the Texan’s Week 2 performance and has Jacksonville as a double-digit favourite. Jacksonville will look to flex their muscles against a division rival and should easily cover the spread in this one. Risk = 0

NFL Survivor Pool – The Sneaky Value Picks

Baltimore Ravens, 2.93% ownership (-8.0) at Indianapolis Colts, 0.0% ownership: The Baltimore Ravens have been a mixed bag so far, so this spread is slightly puzzling. The Colt’s too have been a mystery, so for either team to be a heavy favourite is odd. Baltimore is likely the better team, but at this point, they are yet to prove they are a touchdown better than the exciting, Anthony Richardson-led Colts. Richardson’s status is likely the reason for this spread. If he is announced to be healthy and starting it should end up much closer. Risk = 3

Buffalo Bills, 0.85% ownership (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, 0.02% ownership: The Buffalo Bills haven’t been impressive to start the season, but they are still one of the truly elite teams. This relatively small spread is the result of that slow start and the surprising start for Washington. The Bills are in a different league than the Commanders and should make quick work of them in Week 3. Risk = 2

Miami Dolphins, 5.94% ownership (-6.5) at Denver Broncos, 0.0% ownership: An unstoppable offence meets an immovable defence in this Week 3 tilt. The Dolphins are scoring at will and the Broncos will have a hard time keeping pace with them. Their defence may be elite and good enough to prevent a blowout, but they will not stop the Dolphin’s potent offence. Any scoring by the Dolphins will prove a tall task to overcome for a Broncos offence that is nowhere near as lethal as Miami’s.Risk = 4

Cincinnati Bengals, 0.18% ownership (-2.0) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 0.22% ownership: Cincinnati has looked asleep at the switch to begin the season. The Bengals are 0-2 and Joe Burrow is not healthy. Despite this, a banged-up Bengals squad is still miles ahead of the Rams. The duo of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams will not be nearly enough to keep up in this one. Risk = 5

The Upset Special

Los Angeles Chargers, 0.06% ownership (+1.0) at Minnesota Vikings, 0.22% ownership: The Chargers and Vikings have had a similar start to the 2023 season. They both boast offences that could be among the league’s elite. Unfortunately, both teams also feature league-worst defences. This game is going to be a matter of whoever has the ball last wins. Look for lots of points on the board and no defence whatsoever. This game should be a pick-em in a nail-biting shootout. Risk = 7

Carolina Panthers, 0.01% ownership (+6.0) at Seattle Seahawks, 7.3% ownership: The Carolina Panthers have the makings of a potentially elite defence. The question is, can the defence keep them in it long enough for the offence to find their way? This week, the Panthers will be without rookie quarterback Bryce Young and will likely be starting veteran Andy Dalton. That may be in the Panther’s favour as Dalton is a solid game manager. Risk = 8

Atlanta Falcons, 0.03% ownership (+3.5) at Detroit Lions, 1.15% ownership: The Atlanta Falcons have started the season off hot. The only problem is that they have to do it against bad teams. The Seahawks showed the Detroit Lions that they can still be a playoff team. Look for Seattle to give the Falcons a taste of reality and send them crashing back down to earth. Risk = 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.01% ownership (+5.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 0.43% ownership: This upset is more of a Hail Mary play than a contrarian one. The Eagles have not looked like reigning NFC Champions and Tanpa Bay has played well in life after Tom Brady. I don’t expect this one to hit, and realistically the Eagles should route them. But, if you are into risky plays, Tampa Bay has the veteran play to pull off a massive upset. Risk = 10

The Must Avoids

Cleveland Browns, 0.2% ownership (-3.0) vs. Tennessee Titans, 0.14% ownership: This game is the opposite of the Chargers and Vikings game. The Browns and Titans both look to be elite defences, but both have struggled to be consistent on offence. Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill both look like shells of their former selves and this game is going to be too close to call. Risk = 5

Green Bay Packers, 0.15% ownership (-2.0) vs. New Orleans Saints, 0.06% ownership: The Packers are favoured in this game, although I’m unsure why. They have scored easily in their first two games but neither was against a good defence. This matchup with an elite Saints defence will be the first real test for Jordan Love. I expect the Saints to overwhelm him and take care of business in Week 3. Risk = 8

New England Patriots, 1.11% ownership (-3.0) at New York Jets, 0.06% ownership: The Patriots and Jets are two more elite defences with broken offences. I expect this game to be boring and low-scoring and it will be yet another game that’s too close to call. Realistically either team could pull out a victory here as both teams are bi-polar on offence and we don’t know who will show up in Week 3. Risk = 8