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NFL Survivor Pool Guide – Week 4

An NFL survivor pool is a wonderful thing. Much like sports betting, it gives casual fans something to cheer for when they don’t have the time for fantasy sports. As simple as it sounds to pick one winner each week, there is a lot more that you must consider.

Each week, I will discuss point spreads, ownership rate, injuries and weather. This will help you decide which team you should choose for your pool. I’ll offer a multi-faceted approach that will give you several options for each week. These options are based on your level of risk tolerance. This is My NFL Survivor Pool Guide – Week 4 Edition.

As a side note: The League Winners also run a Writer’s Only Survivor Pool as a control group. You can find the group here to follow along. I will refer to the pool in this series and will provide updates to show how we are personally playing each week. After all, you can’t trust our advice if we don’t follow it ourselves.

NFL Survivor Pool – The Heavy Favorites

San Francisco 49ers, 32.04% ownership (-14.0) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 0.02% ownership: The San Francisco 49ers have looked nearly unstoppable and are the class of the NFC. The Arizona Cardinals have been better than expected, even upsetting the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys last week, but there is no chance of the 49ers overlooking them. San Francisco could easily be favored by more than 14 points in this matchup. The 49ers will be a popular play this week as the general public on wins this week seems to be on the 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and no one else. It may be the first time this season I advocate for burning one of the elite options. In a tough week, best to go with the slam dunk, even if you can’t use San Francisco again as a result. Risk= 0

Kansas City Chiefs, 19.45% ownership (-12.5) at New York Jets, 0.01% ownership: The Chiefs are the next safest play in Week 4. Kansas City will face off against a New York Jets squad that is almost incapable of scoring with Zach Wilson at quarterback. If you want to save the 49ers for a tougher week, the Chiefs are the play. The Jets defense was expected to be elite, but through three weeks they look to be vulnerable. Maybe it’s because they spend so much time on the field. Regardless, the Chiefs are easy winners this week. Risk = 2

Philadelphia Eagles, 23.29% (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders, 0.01%: The Eagles are also heavy favorites this week against a Washington Commanders team that is well below average. Divisional battles don’t typically make for good targets in survivor pools, but this one isn’t close. The Eagles still look to be shaking the rust off from a Super Bowl hangover, but even a rusty Eagles squad is two touchdowns better than the Commanders. Risk = 2

Dallas Cowboys, 3.84% ownership (-7.0) vs. New England Patriots, 0.01% ownership: The Cowboys are the heavy favorites to avoid in Week 4. This week feels like a trap game. Dak Prescott is turnover prone against tough defenses and Bill Belichick always has the New England Patriots defense firing on all cylinders. I expect the Cowboys to be able to win this one as they have the far superior offence, but New England’s defense is good enough to make it risky. If you want to go with a heavy favourite, take one of the three options above. Risk = 3

NFL Survivor Pool – The Sneaky Value Picks

Los Angeles Chargers, 5.34% ownership (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 0.02% ownership: The Los Angeles Chargers have looked great on offense and terrible on defense to start the season. Their record is probably not indicative of how good they actually are. This week they will not have to worry about losing another shootout. The Las Vegas Raiders have no chance of keeping pace with them. The Chargers being only 5.5-point favorites should be a clear indication of exactly how bad their defense is, but they should still win this one easily. Risk = 3

Jacksonville Jaguars, 0.92% ownership (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 0.08% ownership: The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Atlanta Falcons this week in Europe. A Pro-Jacksonville crowd and an elite offense should allow Jacksonville to pull away from Atlanta by halftime. The Falcons will likely be able to run the ball effectively enough to keep themselves in this game for a while, but they will never be a threat to win this one. Risk = 4

Cleveland Browns, 0.10% ownership (-3.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens, 0.0% ownership: The Cleveland Browns have looked solid to kick off the season, but so have the Baltimore Ravens. These teams are very similar and are both defense-oriented teams. Scoring may be at a premium in this matchup and this game could be more of a coin-flip than anything. I think the Browns have the better defense and the better offense so they should pull off the win, but this is likely not the value pick you’re looking for. Risk = 6

Cincinnati Bengals, 1.16% ownership (-2.0) at Tennessee Titans, 0.02% ownership: The Cincinnati Bengals were a mess through two weeks, but seemed to get back on track in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams. The health of Joe Burrow is still a worry. If the Bengals are able to build on Week 3, they should make quick work of the Titans. Risk = 6

The Upset Special

Miami Dolphins, 0.18% ownership (+3.0) at Buffalo Bills, 0.06% ownership: The Miami Dolphins exploded for 70 points in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos. The Buffalo Bills are nowhere near as bad on offence or defense as the Broncos were and are actually favored in this game. I’ll take a Miami team on a heater that looks to be nearly unbeatable right now. Taking Miami over a Buffalo team that has struggled early on and is looking overrated to this point is easy. Risk = 7

Houston Texans, 0.09% ownership (+3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 2.32% ownership: The Texans are not the bottom-feeders many expected. Their offense looks much better than expected and CJ Stroud looks to be a legitimate star. The Steelers are missing their best offensive weapon and are nowhere near as explosive as the Texans. Houston has more than enough firepower to overwhelm a low-scoring Steelers offense and pull off the upset this week. Risk = 8

Green Bay Packers, 0.21% ownership (+1.5) vs. Detroit Lions, 0.40% ownership: The Packers are not the team I expect to win this matchup, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that they are in fact the better team. The Lions got a lot of clout after beating the Chiefs in Week 1. Since then they have been hit and miss. The Packers and Lions are closer in talent than many want to admit. This game is too close to call. Risk = 6

Carolina Panthers, 0.02% ownership (+1.0) vs. Minnesota Vikings, 6.45% ownership: This matchup features confusing teams. The Panthers are young and will go through some ups and downs all season. The Vikings on paper are the far superior offense, unfortunately, they may also be a historically bad defense. I don’t want to go overboard and pick the Panthers to win this game straight up. However, the Viking’s defense is so bad they can never be counted on as a safe pick. Minnesota is one of the teams I’d like to avoid, even in a favorable matchup. Risk = 6

The Must Avoids

Denver Broncos, 1.98% ownership (-3.5) at Chicago Bears, 0.21% ownership: The Bears are terrible and maybe the worst team in the NFL. It’s entirely possible that Caleb Williams will be the quarterback in Chicago come Week 1 of 2024. Having said that, Good Lord, the Broncos defense is terrible. You can’t pick the Bears. You can’t pick the Broncos. What you can do is avoid this dumpster fire of a game altogether. Risk = 5

New Orleans Saints, 0.20% ownership (-3.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 0.12% ownership: The Saints and Buccaneers are both solid on defense but uncertain on offense. Both will be starting quarterbacks in Week 4 that don’t inspire confidence. This game could go either way in a tight divisional battle. This game is as close to even as you are likely to see in the NFL. Below-average quarterbacks. Above average defenses. Struggling run games. Talented receivers. This game is likely to go down to the wire like most Buccaneers vs. Saints games. Risk = 87

New York Giants, 0.06% ownership (-1.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 0.66% ownership: The Seahawks and the Giants could be dubbed the battle of Jekyll and Hyde teams. One minute they both look like legitimate contenders and the next they look like they could be last-place teams. Predicting the outcome of this game is impossible because predicting which form of each team will show up is impossible. Best to steer clear of this game as well. Risk = 8

Indianapolis Colts, 0.10% ownership (-1.0) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 0.43% ownership: This game depends largely on the health of Anthony Richardson. If he plays this week, the Colts should find a way to easily dispatch the Rams. The Rams are not as bad as many anticipated, but they are still going to struggle on offence. If the Colts can find a way to bottle up Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua, they should win easily. Risk = 6