NFL Week 5 Bets
A 4-1 start on my Thursday Night Football Bets piece is a great way to begin a series. After only missing out on what seemed to be an easy lock on the Broncos (-3.5), were back with the NFL Week 5 Sunday Bets. In this series, I’m going to be expressing my bets in units, and so everyone can understand, here is an example of what a unit is:
*1 Unit = 1-2% of your Bankroll, depending on risk tolerance.*
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders. Sunday 10/09/2022, 1:00 PM EST
This game has the Washington Commanders (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at home against the Tennessee Titans (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS). The Commanders opened this game at home +2.5, this has since moved to +1 even with the Titans spread receiving over 63% of the handle and 84% of the tickets on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is a classic case of reverse line movement, where the line is moving in the opposite direction of the sportsbook’s need and if you dive a little deep into the matchup you can see why.
The Titans come into this game missing WR Treylon Burks, LB Zach Cunningham, EDGE Bud Dupree, and S Amani Hooker. Guard Nate Davis and CB Caleb Farley’s status are in question for Sunday as well. The Titans like to rely on their run game, with a 49.19% rush rate this season, which ranks 7th league wide. Contrary to popular belief, the Commanders have a stout run defense, ranking 5th in Run Defense DVOA. This will force the Titans to go out of their comfort zone and force more passing plays than they are used to.
The Titans are coming off a win against the Colts in Indianapolis last week and will play the Colts again in Week 7 after their bye. This is a classic “Sandwich Spot”, in which over a 3-game stretch, a team will play two very important divisional games and one less important, non-conference game in between. This is a big road letdown spot for the Titans as they are looking forward to the bye, littered with injuries, and have another divisional match up on the road the week following.
Pick:
Commanders ML (+100)
1 Unit to win 1 Unit.
Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots. Sunday 10/09/2022, 1:00 PM EST
This game has the New England Patriots (1-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS) at home against the Detroit Lions (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS). The Lions have looked shockingly good this season meanwhile the Patriots have seemed to be under performing. The Lions kept it tight with the 4-0 Eagles, beat the Commanders, were up all game on the Vikings until a very late collapse, and scored 45 against the Seahawks last week. On the other hand, the Patriots are 1-3 and last in their division. This is deceiving as the Patriots have played three good teams the Dolphins, Ravens, and Packers.
The Lions will be missing RB D’Andre Swift, DE Charles Harris, WR D.J. Chark, OT Matt Nelson and Amon-Ra St. Brown’s status is still up in the air as he only logged one limited practice all week. The Patriots will be missing TE Jonnu Smith, QB Brian Hoyer, DE Lawrence Guy, and most likely CB Jalen Mills.
The public loves Detroit this week with over 69% of the tickets placed on them on DraftKings Sportsbook. This spot at first glance looks great for Detroit as the Patriots are on their third-string QB, Bailey Zappe, and haven’t looked great, yet the line has been frozen at -3 in favor of New England all week. This is most likely because the Patriots have the #1 Overall DVOA Rush Offense and the Lions have the 32nd-ranked DVOA Rush Defense. The Lions are the worst team in the league at stopping the run and the Patriots have a talented RB duo that has been smashing all year. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris average 4.9 and 4.6 yards per carry, respectively. I expect New England to run all over them and control the ball for most of the game.
Pick:
New England Patriots -3.5 (-105)
1 Unit to win .95 Units.
Props:
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
.5 Units to win .42 Units
Damien Harris Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
.5 Units to win .43 Units.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sunday 10/09/2022, 1:00 PM EST
This match up has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at home against the Atlanta Falcons (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS). Atlanta is the lone team that is undefeated against the spread this year. The Buccaneers are coming off two bad losses and are looking to right the ship. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta is coming off a sweaty victory against the Browns. This line opened at -8 in favor of the Bucs and has since moved to -10.
The Atlanta Falcons have ruled out TE Kyle Pitts, RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson and T Elijah Wilkinson. The Buccaneers are missing TE Cameron Brate and DE Akeim Hicks. WR Julio Jones and WR Breshad Perriman are both questionable for Sunday’s game.
Falcons QB Marcus Mariota hasn’t looked all that impressive this season. Mariota has a 58.2 Completion % (30th), 779 Pass Yards (26th), 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Although Kyle Pitts hasn’t looked great receiving-wise this season, him being in the game always keeps the defense guessing. With Pitts sidelined, Arthur Smith will be forced to run a traditional tight end out there in an already struggling passing offense. Combine this with Tampa Bay being 3rd overall in Rush Defense DVOA and the Falcons offense will likely struggle.
Tom Brady has not lost three games in a row in twenty years and is looking to keep that streak going. The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU against the Falcons in the Brady era, covering -7.5, -13.5 and, -11 spreads previously. Don’t overthink this one.
Pick:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 (-115)
1 Unit to win .86 Units.
