NFL Week 7 Bets
After a hiatus last week, we’re back for some NFL Week 7 bets. This week, we’ll be looking at a couple games in the midday slate. In this series, I’m going to be expressing my bets in units. So everyone can understand, here is an example of what a unit is:
*1 Unit = 1-2% of your Bankroll, depending on risk tolerance.*
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers. Sunday 10/23/2022, 4:25 PM EST.
This game has the Kansas City Chiefs (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers ( 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS). This game opened at -2 for Kansas City; which received over 80% on both ticket percentage and money percentage for DraftKings Sportsbook. Yet, the line moved from -2 Kansas City to -1 Kansas City.
Typically, when there is enough money on one side, the line moves in favor of the team receiving the bets; as it creates a need for the sportsbook. In this case, we see the line moving away from Kansas City, even though the public is all over them. This is what is known as reverse line movement. This is something I like to target when betting. Let’s break down a bit why the line is this, instead of just blindly tailing reverse line movement spots.
Kansas City comes into this game with the #2 overall DVOA pass offense, and San Fran comes in at #6. Both teams have been in the top tier of efficiency in the passing game. On the defensive side of the passing game, there is a much different story. Kansas City ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense, while San Fran ranks 7th overall. The 49ers defense also ranks 1st overall in DVOA run defense. This is Kansas City’s toughest defense they will have to face so far this season.
I like San Francisco on the Money line at +100 today. I will also be placing some player props from this game too. Kansas City runs man coverage around 31.4% of the time. This is slightly lower than the 3-year running league average of 33.9%. When teams are zone-heavy like Kansas City, they typically will allow a lot of passes to TEs and RBs; or they will allow a lot of routes across the middle of the field. This is where I think George Kittle and Deebo Samuel should take over for San Fran and do most of the work after the catch.
Picks:
San Francisco ML (+100) 1.5 Units to win 1 Units.
Deebo Samuel Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-125) .5 Units to win .4 Units.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers. Sunday 10/23/2022, 4:25 PM EST.
This game has the Seattle Seahawks (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS). This game opened at -6 for the Chargers and has since been bet down to -4.5 or -5 – depending on which book you are using.
The Seahawks are the most public bet on the slate, with over 91% of the money coming in on their spread. Even with the line adjusting downwards, money keeps coming in on Seattle. When this line opened, it didn’t make much sense to me – and it still doesn’t. Seattle is coming off a 10-point division win against Arizona where their defense looked stout. On the other hand, the Chargers are coming off a 3-point overtime win against Denver where they looked awful all game.
Anytime we see over 90% on a side, I like to get some action on the other side and fade the public. Seattle’s defense is not as good as it appeared last week, ranking 26th and 21st in DVOA pass and run efficiency, respectively. I think the Chargers have a bounce-back week and pass all over that weak secondary.
Picks:
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 (-110) 1 Unit to win .91 Units.
