Pitt vs. West Virginia 2025: Keys to the Game and Predictions

It’s the Pitt Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers to start Week 3 of the 2025 season, and predictions for the Backyard Brawl are all over the place. This will be the 108th all-time meeting between Pitt and West Virginia, and the final matchup of the four-game home and home series that started in 2022. Pitt is coming into this game with a perfect 2-0 record, while West Virginia was just stunned by the Ohio Bobcats a week ago to drop to 1-1.

The Mountaineers will be without two of their best players on Saturday. Can they shock the Panthers and even the series at 2 a piece?

Pitt Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: Matchup History

There aren’t many games with more history than this one. Pitt leads the all-time series over West Virginia 63-41-3. More recently, they have won two out of the three games since the rivalry was renewed in 2022 after a 10-year hiatus due to conference realignment. This will be the last time these two teams face each other until 2029, so you know this game will mean a little more.

Both of Pitt’s recent victories have involved some wild endings. From the MJ Devonshire pick-six in 2022, to Eli Holstein’s brilliant game-winning drive last season, there has been some incredible football on display in the Backyard Brawl.

Pitt vs. West Virginia 2025: Keys to the Game and Predictions

Key Players for Pitt

Quarterback Eli Holstein has been the star of the show for Pitt this season, and he definitely was in last year’s game against WVU. Holstein is on pace to shatter his touchdown total from last year and has been playing at a very high level for the Panthers in 2025. He will be walking into the toughest environment he has played in as a starter. However, he is welcoming the challenge.

Holstein has gotten into some trouble with turning the ball over in the first two games. While those interceptions weren’t costly against inferior opponents, if Pitt wants to win this game, it will need to take care of the ball. The Panthers can’t allow West Virginia to gain momentum and turn defense into offense.

Punter Caleb Junko is an unlikely player to pick as someone to look out for, but he’ll have a huge hand in Pitt winning this game. West Virginia’s offense was dreadful a week ago. They turned over Parker Navarro and Ohio four times, and couldn’t score off those turnovers. If Junko can average over 40 yards per punt, the Panthers should win. West Virginia will be at a disadvantage all afternoon if they’re losing the field-position battle.

Key Players for West Virginia

The Mountaineers will be without multiple key players in this game. Running back Jahiem White and wide receiver Jaden Bray both suffered season-ending injuries in the loss to Ohio. The offense was already struggling, and now it’s only going to be harder for West Virginia to move the ball.

Quarterback Nico Marchiol will have to play an outstanding game for the Mountaineers to pull the upset. So far in 2025 he is 32-of-46 for 402 yards with both a touchdown and interception. Not bad, but to win this game he will have to take it to the next level. If Nico turns the ball over multiple times, West Virginia will have no chance.

The good news for West Virginia fans is the defense played outstanding last week. Safety Fred Perry was all over the field for the Mountaineers, recording 10 total tackles, including two tackles for loss. Pitt has been trying to throw the ball down field more, so Perry will surely be someone to watch on that WVU defense.

Senior linebacker Chase Wilson leads the team with three sacks, and is tied for the team lead with one interception. Kyle Louis is the linebacker to watch in this one, but don’t let Wilson slide under the radar. He is an elite play-maker who can change a game with turnovers and tackles for loss.

How Pitt Stays Undefeated

Vegas puts Pitt as a 7.5 favorite as of Thursday evening. While the line makes sense, this game will likely be close most of the way due to the rivalry aspect. Milan Puskar is not an easy place to play on any given Saturday, but it will be a whole different atmosphere this week. I was in attendance for the last game in Morgantown, and it had a different feel. Pitt will need to stay composed, and not let their emotions get the best of them. Games like this are won mentally, and by limiting mistakes.

Unfortunately for West Virginia, they are a depleted football team. Eli Holstein and the offense should do enough to outpace the injured Mountaineers offense, and Pitt winning in a lower scoring battle.

Score Prediction: Pitt 27, West Virginia 14