Does Detroit Lions’ RB have the potential to become the next Austin Ekeler in fantasy football? Let’s look at the numbers.
HYPOTHESIS
D’Andre Swift is Austin Ekeler 2.0.
To come to this conclusion, we must first understand Ekeler’s meteoric rise to prominence. Comparing Ekeler’s progression with Swift’s potential will be essential. The potential “Anthony Lynn effect” will be considered and finally we will address the potential draft pedigree bias.
BACKGROUND
Austin Ekeler is known for being one of the strongest backs, pound for pound, in the NFL; just google “Ekeler workout”. Ekeler 5-9 199lbs, 4.48 speed was undrafted out of Western Colorado State, a division II program. He was stuck behind Melvin Gordon his first few years, until a 2019 Gordon injury and his eventual 2020 departure to Denver opened the opportunity floodgates for Ekeler. A blue collar, one-cut slasher, but definitely gets his money’s worth falling forward when tackled.
D’Andre Swift, 5-8 212 lbs 4.48, came into the NFL in 2020 as the 35th overall pick to Detroit. He was lauded by fantasy football draftniks as the best pure runner in the class, but the landing spot in Detroit was not ideal.
Initially, competition for playing time was only Kerryon Johnson. As everyone remembers, the Lions “wisely” brought in Adrian Peterson. I put wisely in quotes because the addition of AP essentially guaranteed Swift’s rookie year would be in a dreaded time share.
Will D’Andre Swift become the next Austin Ekeler? After all, Ekeler rose to fantasy football stardom under the tutelage of running game guru Anthony Lynn. The former Chargers Head Coach will now tutor Swift as the Lions offensive coordinator. The hype train in Detroit has already suggested an obvious three-down role for Swift in 2021. We’ll see what a more in-depth comparison reveals.
DATA
We will be cross referencing data points from Ekeler’s 2018 through 2020 with all available data for Swift. We will classify Ekeler’s 2018 as YEAR 0, 2019 as YEAR 1 and 2020 as YEAR 2. In the same context, Swift’s final collegiate season will be YEAR 0, 2020 as YEAR 1 and 2021 as YEAR 2. You will see why shortly.
Both player’s YEAR 0 was nearly off the charts for ADP (literally, in Swift’s case). Ekeler’s YEAR 0 (2018) had FantasyPros ADP of 173.0, square in the middle of round 14 for 12-team redraft leagues. Primarily rostered as a handcuff to Melvin Gordon.
Swift’s YEAR 0 was at UGA, completely undraftable for purposes of this study.
Ekeler’s YEAR 0 ended with some important late season contributions for fantasy football players, therefore his YEAR 1 (2019) ADP jumped to 61.3 or late 5th round area. He was coming off a year with 39 receptions, 958 total yards and six TDs and was considered to have standalone value next to Gordon.
Swift’s YEAR 1 (2020) came shortly after being drafted in the 2nd round by the Detroit Lions. Because of the time share concern Swift’s ADP was only 72.0 firmly in the 6th round.
Here is where labeling YEAR 0, 1, 2 makes sense. Ekeler’s YEAR 1 ADP was 61.3 (late 5th); Swift’s was 72.0 (mid-6th) within the same ballpark right? (forgive the baseball cliché). We will continue comparing each player’s respective YEAR 1 results and you will see the significant hype Swift will need to reach Ekeler 2.0 status in terms of ADP progression and predictions.
YEAR 1 (2019 for Ekeler and 2020 for Swift)
Ekeler’s YEAR 1 resulted in Ekeler’s inauguration into the “league winner” club. Teams who invested in Ekeler in 2019 were handsomely rewarded. This was the year that Melvin Gordon was holding out due to a contract dispute, so he was a monster for a few early weeks.
While D’Andre Swift was still in college, Ekeler managed 92 receptions, 1550 total yards and 11 TDs over 16 games. This output was strong enough to earn a top-5 RB finish in full PPR formats, ahead of Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry in Total PPR points. Pretty good for an undrafted D-II back whose ADP was 5th RD, ya?
D’Andre Swift’s YEAR 1 (2020) was obviously not in the “league winner” category. Swift finished with 46 receptions, 878 total yards and 10 TDs over 13 games. Swift’s 2020 ultimately resulted in a top-20 RB finish in both total points and average.
Anyone who rostered him will tell you that he should have been top-15 at least due to coaching ineptitude and minor injuries. All in all, within the expectations of a late 5th round pick. If Swift’s subpar YEAR 1 numbers were the only information considered, I would not waste your time. He’s not even close to an Ekeler 2.0 by comparing YEAR 1 results alone.
ANALYTICS
Looking a little deeper at a few metrics, courtesy of playerprofiler.com.
Ekeler‘s YEAR 1 (2019)
Carries 132, Targets 108, Snap Share 57.1, Opportunity Share 46.0, Yards per touch 6.9 (1st among RBs)
Swift’s YEAR 1 (2020)
Carries 114, Targets 57 Snap Share 49.1, Opportunity Share 48.3, YPT 5.5 (14th)
The data which stands out as incongruent to me are the targets, but also the opportunity share. Ekeler received 108 targets to Swift’s 57. Adjusting to targets per game, Ekeler received 6.75, while Swift received 4.4 targets per game. Remember the “Anthony Lynn effect”. (Remind me to factor in the theoretical 2.35 target bump at some point. If Swift gets an increase of 2.35 targets a game working under Lynn, it will be an objective reason to consider the hype).
The fact that Swift’s opportunity share was higher, 48.3 to 46.0 relative to Ekeler, speaks more to the lack of effective competition than anything. Swift’s perceived opportunity supremacy was buoyed by his targets, relative to Adrian Peterson and carries relative to Kerryon Johnson.
Swift was the clear target leader in the backfield, and the 2020 Lions struggled to commit to a running game; therefore, the carries were low as a whole. On the flip side of the competition consideration affecting the opportunity share; Ekeler’s opportunity share was marginalized by the fact that Gordon had snap and opportunity shares of 55.6 and 54.7 despite missing four games.
Ekeler was obviously a surprise to most when he took the 2019 Charger backfield by storm for the entire season. He was able to ride the second most receptions and reception yards amongst running backs to a top-5 fantasy football PPR performance. This is a high bar to reach in terms of overall performance.
Swift was obviously a disappointing weekly option in 2020 as his week-to-week opportunities were unpredictable. On a positive note, he did enjoy top-5 weekly performances week 6 and week 10 before succumbing to a mysterious concussion. He did manage top-20 performances in three of the four final weeks, but the supporting cast and coaching decisions ultimately rendered his rookie season unremarkable for someone of his draft pedigree.
YEAR 2 (2020 for Ekeler and 2021 for Swift)
Ekelers’s 2019 performance and eventual departure of Gordon, it made sense that drafters felt Ekeler would put up similar, or better numbers in 2020. His ADP spiked to 21.0, a full three rounds better than the prior year, and rightfully so. This is the meteoric rise referenced in the hypothesis; the meteoric rise in ADP.
Looking at the snap and opportunity shares for Ekeler’s 2020 season reveals an increase to 60.0 from 53.9, respectively. Removing Melvin Gordon from the LAC backfield is the obvious explanation. If it wasn’t for significant TD regression and a six game absence due to a hammy, Ekeler would have come very close to the same PPR point totals.
Adjusting his YEAR 2 year end totals to reflect a full 16 games for comparison, Ekeler would have finished with 86 receptions 1493 total yards and 5 TDs. Ekeler’s per game receptions and total yardages justified his ADP. Taking his 2019 and 2020 per game totals to create an aggregate 2 year production average, Ekeler sits at 89 receptions, 1522 total yards, 8 TDs.
Swift’s YEAR 2 (2021) is why we are discussing. Does he deserve the same draft capital as Austin Ekeler enjoyed in 2020? It depends. We have spent most of our discussion on objective results, whether it be actual yards, TDs, snap, and opportunity shares etc. The question being asked, again, is whether Swift deserves a meteoric rise in ADP like the rise Ekeler enjoyed last year.
SUMMARY
Ekeler’s ADP rose from 61.3 to 21.0 from YEAR 1 (2019) to YEAR 2 (2020). This is a full three rounds better, roughly 40 picks earlier. Swift’s ADP in YEAR 1 (2020) was 72.0. If Swift’s 2021 ADP jumps 40 picks it would reach the late 3rd range.
While early mock drafts and pre-draft ratings suggest Swift’s ADP will move to the late 3rd (at least), let us not forget Ekeler jumped to the late 2nd! Ekeler’s two year per game average suggests he is a 90 catch, 1500 yards and 8 TD per year performer. Swift has one year 46 receptions, 878 total yards and 10 TDs over 13 games (57 catch, 1080 total yards, 12TDs based on per game average).
While the sample size is relatively small (especially Swift’s), it appears the value of each player is driven by two unique themes. Ekeler is a target and reception hog who will overcome TD regression with opportunity and target shares. Swift is an all-around back with a nose for the end zone who will rely on lack of competition to make the next step.
The following is a theoretical bump to match Ekeler’s 2020 opportunity share onto Swift’s 2020 numbers for a rough 2021 projection. I know it’s not a linear relationship, just bear with me. Swift’s 48.3 opportunity share bumped to 53.9 would suggest a 2021 outcome of 64 receptions, 1205 total yards, 13 TDs; still not close to Ekeler’s level.
But what about the Anthony Lynn effect? Okay fine, we’ll try to estimate how the 2.35 targets a game discussed earlier might look like. The target factor is 1.53.
2020: 521 RuYds, 8 RuTD, 57 TGT, 46 Rec, 357 ReYds, 2 ReTD
2020 16 gm avg: 641 RuYds, 10 RuTD, 70 TGT, 57 Rec, 439 ReYds, 2 ReTD
2020: w/ target bump: 641 RuYds, 10 RuTD, 107 TGT, 87 Rec, 672 ReYds, 3 ReTD
So, 87 Rec, 1313 total yards and 13 TDs if Swift gets the same target rate as Ekeler based on respective YEAR 1 numbers. This is eerily similar to Ekeler’s YEAR 2 numbers, but Ekeler had more yards and Swift is obviously projected to get more TDs.
Both the higher opportunity rate projection and the higher target rate projection are based on a huge assumption that Lynn’s system will work regardless of the running back. They are projections, not actual results. Regardless, Anthony Lynn’s effect on Swift will be assumed a huge boon based on Ekeler’s rise to prominence.
To assume Lynn and head coach Dan Campbell will give Swift 25 touches a game is ridiculous. Twenty-five touches a game is 400 touches. Since 2009, there have been 4, four players with 400 touches. 2009 Chris Johnson (408), 2014 DeMarco Murray (449), 2017 Le’Veon Bell (406), 2019 Christian McCaffrey (403). Touch leaders in 2020 were Derrick Henry 397 and Dalvin Cook 356.
In other words, I do not see Swift averaging 25 touches a game, nor do I think the Lions offense could justify it. The new coaching staff and a new quarterback will need some time to gel. Plus, Kerryon Johnson is still around to compete with Swift whereas Melvin Gordon was gone the offseason which saw Ekeler’s meteoric ADP rise.
Now, if this were a discussion about a fantasy football dynasty league versus a redraft league where draft pedigree and age play a larger factor, I would probably agree that Swift should be rated higher than Ekeler for dynasty purposes, but not redraft in 2021.
CONCLUSION
All things considered; it would be an insult to what Ekeler has already accomplished since breaking out in 2019 to say that Swift will obviously be his redux. Ekeler may have peaked in 2019, but Swift has yet to produce anything close. This may sound familiar to Ekeler in 2019, but Ekeler had Philip Rivers and two years in the league already.
The statistical analysis and potential opportunity bump and target bump has shown D’Andre Swift could exceed the projections discussed herein, but there is simply too much instability in Detroit for me to proclaim Mr. Swift is Ekeler 2.0.
I know the hype machine will keep churning and people’s subconscious draft pedigree bias may kick in. Maybe somewhere along the way someone will think, “Hey, didn’t Anthony Lynn turn Ekeler into a stud?”; and it might eventually result in Swift being picked in the late 2nd round, maybe even ahead of Ekeler himself. Remember, don’t trust hype alone.
Hypothesis not supported.
