Prospect Profile: Jaylen Waddle

By / Devy & College Football, Dynasty / Leave a Comment
Jaylen Waddle

As we get closer to the 2021 NFL Draft, we take a look at Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle and his fantasy football outlook.

 

Jaylen Waddle is an electric player. Whether you’re a fan of him or not, it’s hard to deny his ability to stretch the field. His speed makes it easy to get into the next level and forces defenses to shade a safety towards his side when matched in press coverage. He also plays the ball aggressively, which is something you look to see from a young wide receiver. There are negatives as well however, and we’ll dive into it all below.

Physical Skills

Speed kills. Quoted by former Raiders’ owner Al Davis, those words still hold merit today. Jaylen Waddle has plenty of speed, and it’s his best attribute by far. He’s said to have ran a 4.27 40-yard dash and is expected to run in that range during his Pro Day. He reaches his top speed so quickly that he gets to the edge before the defender can, even if they’re in position to make the play. Below is an excellent example of this.

Waddle has great north-south speed. Because of this, he uses head and shoulder manipulation to trick a defender into a lane; allowing him to change trajectory ever so slightly without losing any speed (an ankle injury during the 2020 season seemed to greatly affect his lateral agility when he returned later in the season).

It’s a wrinkle to his game that has allowed for success. We’ve seen Tyreek Hill have success playing similarly. Whether Jaylen Waddle can replicate this at the next level remains to be seen.

Another documented strength of Waddle are his strong hands. He’s an aggressive player, and attacks the ball often regardless of the situation. It’s created a lot of contested catch opportunities that demonstrate his hand strength.

 

Route Running

This is where a lot of evaluations start to differ. You’ll find those who think Jaylen Waddle is a great route runner, and those who think he isn’t. I lean towards the latter, though I think the answer is a little more complicated than that.

One thing that stuck out to me is that he had a fairly limited route tree. When on the outside, he primarily ran 9’s (go/streak) and on rare occasion, the deep out. In the slot, he almost exclusively ran some variation of a 9 or crossing pattern. While I think Waddle could have done a better job ‘selling’ his routes, his speed and understanding of body leverage made that a non-factor; especially on deep routes, as you can see below.

I would have liked to see him play more against press coverage, as there was more to be desired when watching the tape. It was near impossible to bring a safety to shadow his side playing press, so he received some of the biggest cushions in CFB due to his speed. Alabama also did a great job scheming up ‘switches’ for the defensive backs in order to get Waddle open as well. It doesn’t mean that he was unguardable, however.

In the Citrus Bowl in 2019 Michigan made Waddle a non-factor (even if they ended up losing). In the nine passing plays Waddle was on the field for, he faced press or was hit at/behind the LOS (line of scrimmage) on six of them. He finished that game with only two targets; having one catch for seven yards.

At the next level, I think Waddle may have a hard time against physically aggressive corners. Occasionally he won’t finish his route when facing physicality on the LOS, and some of the better defensive units in the NFL will take advantage of this.

 

Intangibles

One thing I love about Jaylen Waddle is his intelligence. He understands the game of football, his position on the field, and how to utilize his body to excel. Despite what I perceive as a limited route tree, his ability to find the cushion in the zone is something plenty of players can’t do in CFB. He does it well, and allows for easy throws for his quarterback.

Jaylen Waddle also has a versatility that many at the position don’t have. His ability to be a returner in special teams can be a game-changer for a team. Being a returner requires excellent vision and understanding of angles, something that Waddle excels at.

When the play becomes ‘backyard football’, Waddle does a great job coming back to the quarterback and getting open when the play starts to fall apart. This is a very underrated quality in a player. Even at the NFL level we see wide receivers not being able to do this successfully, leading to a sack, throw-away or a bad throw by the quarterback.

Another thing that gets overlooked, especially at the collegiate level, is his ability to get both feet in bounds; despite only needing to get one in. He’s been getting himself prepared to be in the NFL since his freshman year. Even when the catch is difficult, he finds a way to get it done.

The last intangible I love about Jaylen Waddle is his toughness and heart. Waddle is a player that won’t go down at the first introduction of contact. He will fight for yardage whether the play is lost, or in a pivotal moment. This doesn’t always translate into more yards, but as a coach it’s something you love to see out of your players.

 

Blocking

Some people are going to be reading this and question why I’m even mentioning his blocking. ‘He’s a WR why does his blocking even matter.’ It matters, because it’s atrociously bad. It isn’t for a lack of trying either, as Waddle does try to do his best in the run-game. But one thing that stuck out to me when watching his tape was that whenever Alabama ran to his side, his defender would always make the play (or be involved in it). When running on the opposite side, Waddle’s defender was able to get back into the mix and make a play as well.

This is a problem for one of two reasons. If you’re an NFL coach, you don’t want him on the field during these plays. You’re probably thinking, ‘so what?‘. Well, those reps are important. A QB can audible out of a run, and if Waddle isn’t being used on design run-plays, the defense has a better understanding of what is coming.

The other issue is that if the team does decide to keep him on the field, he becomes a liability. The play will almost assuredly go for less yards than planned for. The likelihood of his defender being involved in making a stop becomes quite high. These issues will stop him from getting maximum reps at the next level if they aren’t addressed.

 

Advanced Metrics

Despite being a force at Alabama, the advanced stats don’t love him nearly as much. Some of this is due to Alabama having such a great team, and others are due to his limited usage in the passing attack. In regards to the latter, Waddle’s college dominator factor (percentage of a team’s total receiving yards and TDs) was only 24.1% (32nd percentile); which correlates with his mediocre breakout age (21.8) that’s in the 20th percentile. His YPR was truly dominant though, having more than rookie sensations CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins.

WIth a BMI of 26.1, Jaylen Waddle is on the edge of what many experts determine as a factor for success. Even then, he has an uphill battle.

Stefon Diggs had a BMI of under 26, but increased it to 26.4 prior to the 2020 season. Is it a coincidence that it led to his first Top-5 fantasy football season? The advanced numbers say no (Diggs is also an elite route-runner). If Waddle can improve his route running ability or add slightly more muscle to his frame, it could do wonders for his success in the NFL going forward.

Final Thoughts

Jaylen Waddle will be a great football player on the next level. He’s an electric player with the ball in his hands, and his speed is a problem for anyone. He’s a smart player that should be able to adapt to the offense he’s in. That said, he does need to improve his strength to get past true press coverage and become a better blocker in the run-game. His route running can be polished, but his understanding of body leverage, hands, tracking and high-pointing the ball give him a much needed edge.

As with any other player getting drafted, location’s a determining factor in his success. Currently I have him slated in the second-tier of wide receivers coming out of college. This is behind Ja’Marr Chase, Rashod Bateman, and Rondale Moore; and in the same tier as Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith. Will Alabama’s limited usage of him help or hurt his draft stock? Only time will tell.

 

 

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