It’s that time of year again. We’re in the heart of the NFL offseason. The time of year all 32 teams are deep in preparation, each chasing the same elusive goal — a Super Bowl ring. Whether you’re a Titans fan hoping Cam Ward is the next elite quarterback, or an Eagles fan convinced a repeat is inevitable, this is the season of belief for NFL fans.
Every fan base starts to talk themselves into why this is the year. That this is the team. That the confetti will fall for them in February, with their quarterback hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as Commissioner Goodell looks on.
Unfortunately for many, behind this optimism lies a brutal reality. Unless your team has a real answer at quarterback, your season is already over. You just don’t know it yet.
Over the last 10 NFL seasons, we’ve seen quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes (three times), Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady (three times), Nick Foles, and Peyton Manning lead their teams to Super Bowl victories. Outside of Nick Foles’ improbable and unforgettable run in 2017, every other champion was led by a quarterback widely regarded as one of the best in the game at the time or historically.
If nothing else, it reinforces one undeniable truth — quarterback remains king in the NFL.
For every championship team that got it right under center, there are just as many or more that were painfully wrong.
The State of the NFL
Across the league, all 32 NFL franchises can be sorted into one of three buckets:
The Haves: Teams with a true franchise quarterback you can build a Super Bowl window around
The Have-Nots: Teams still searching, stuck in the revolving door of quarterback purgatory.
The Believers: Teams clinging to the hope that their quarterback will end the cycle and join The Haves.
What ultimately separates these NFL teams aren’t luck or talent, but rather a deep rooted ability to identify and develop a quarterback with the talent and makeup to belong at the highest level. The truth is, franchise quarterbacks are almost always drafted, not signed or traded for. Once a team finds one, they don’t let him go.
In the rare cases where a true starting-caliber quarterback does hit the open market, it’s usually under exceptional circumstances.
Tom Brady left New England for Tampa Bay not because of declining performance, but due to internal friction. Kirk Cousins departed Washington after two franchise tags, signing the league’s first fully guaranteed deal with the Minnesota Vikings.
Trades are slightly more common, but often stem from a breakdown between the quarterback and their organization, not because the player was truly available. These acquisitions come at a steep price. Teams must not only give up significant draft capital to acquire the quarterback, but also commit to a massive new contract to keep him. It means double the investment and double the risk.
Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Deshaun Watson were all acquired in blockbuster deals that cost their new teams multiple assets and in most cases, record-setting contracts.
Looking back, only the Stafford trade has truly paid off, delivering the Rams a Super Bowl in his first season. The others have become cautionary tales.
The list of successful franchise quarterbacks drafted and developed by their teams far outweighs the short list of high-profile trades and free-agent signings. Just look around the league.
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and many more were all drafted, developed, and built into the identity of their organizations.
This isn’t coincidence. It’s a pattern and it reinforces the truth NFL teams can’t afford to ignore. If you want a franchise quarterback, your best (and sometimes only) real chance is to draft one.
There is one major issue with that strategy. The NFL has proven to be historically bad at evaluating the quarterback position.
Enter Bill Parcells
Long before analytics department and advanced analytics dominated draft talk, legendary coach Bill Parcells had crafted his own system to filter quarterback prospects. It wasn’t about combine times, arm strength, or Senior Bowl performances. Instead, it was rooted in production, maturity, and consistency over time. It was about their readiness to lead a franchise.
Parcells created a simple checklist to determine if a prospect had the foundation to succeed at the NFL level. His rules went as follows:
- Three year starter
- Be a college senior
- Graduate from college
- Start more than 30 games
- Win 23 or more of those starts
- Have a 2 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio
- Have a completion percentage of at least 60 percent
In recent years, we’ve seen several quarterbacks thrive early in the league who fit the Parcells’ profile, including Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Brock Purdy. All were experienced, battle-tested college starters who entered the NFL with maturity and poise.
On the other hand, quarterbacks who didn’t meet these benchmarks like Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, and Mitchell Trubisky have struggled to find consistency.
However, under the Parcells’ rules, some of the faces of the league would also not have been considered. Players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson also fall short of the benchmarks set forth.
The rules weren’t flawless, they prioritized a quarterback’s time at the collegiate level to grow, build resiliency, and learn to lead.
Bill Parcells’ Rules Reimagined
While Parcells’ original rules were simple, they’re undeniably rigid by today’s standards. The game has changed. The transfer portal, NIL money, and increased parity across college football have reshaped the collegiate landscape and it’s time the evaluation process changes with it.
At its heart, the Parcells rules were never about checking arbitrary boxes, but rather it was about minimizing risk and increasing the odds of success by drafting quarterbacks who had proven themselves over time.
He did this by emphasizing three core pillars: experience, winning, and production.
In recalibrating these principles for today’s game, the goal isn’t to abandon them. It’s to preserve their intent while making the criteria more adaptable and reflective of today’s realities. The goal is making them more useful to avoid the next quarterback bust.
So what would a modernized framework look like?
In a recalibrated version of the Parcells’ rules, the goal is to identify new criteria that better aligns with the modern college football game. I have narrowed the refined criteria down to five rules:
1. Two full seasons as a collegiate starter.
- This is defined as 24+ meaningful starts or 700+ career passing attempts to account for injury shortened seasons.
- Exception — Won the Hiesman in their sole season as a starter.
2. 63.0 career win percentage as a starter.
- This equates to roughly 1.5 games above the 6 win bowl eligibility requirement and correlates to a 10 win NFL season.
- Exception — Clearly elevated the talent around them winning all conference honors, conference player of the year, or similar individual accolades.
3. Career TD to INT ratio of at least 2:1 with their final year being 2.5 to 1 or better.
- Exception — Maintained a 2:1 TD to INT ratio throughout their entire collegiate career.
4. 60.0 or better career completion percentage.
- Exception — Improved every year in completion percentage.
5. N0 more than one exception can be used per prospect.
In order to meet the criteria set forth above, a quarterback prospect must satisfy each category and can only use one exception to achieve this.
Defining the New Model
The new criteria maintains an emphasis on experience, elevating their team, decision making, ball security, and accuracy. The new criteria ensures a player still meets the majority of thresholds while now accounting for individual variance which may be attributed to their situation.
Under the original Parcells’ rules, a number of current franchise quarterbacks wouldn’t qualify, yet they meet every level of the reworked framework. Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye would now make this list. All while still maintaining its integrity of avoiding risk.
Meanwhile, quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds such as Richardson, Levis, Lance, Daniel Jones, and Trubisky would not pass this model.
The design and purpose of this criteria is to help protect both NFL decision makers and college prospects. For NFL decision makers, it works as a risk assessment tool providing quantitative benchmarks based on evidence based data. For NFL prospects, it acts as a gauge to help guide them in whether or not it’s the appropriate time to declare.
Prospects are declaring with the feedback that they are a top draft pick. However, NFL goals should not start and stop at being an early draft pick. A good quarterback’s second contract is always larger than their rookie deal. The goal should be long-term, sustained successes. Something the likes of Richardson, Lance, and Trubisky have yet to discover. There is the other issue where Levis received feedback he would be an early pick and was even invited to the green room. All this only for Levis to fall into the second day of the 2023 NFL draft.
This isn’t about predicting superstardom, it’s about setting a threshold for NFL readiness. Readiness for the road ahead. Readiness to face the adversity. And readiness to bounce back. Quarterbacks who meet these modern benchmarks have proven enough to proclaim they are NFL ready.
If a quarterback does not meet the thresholds set forth, this does not inherently make them a bust. It does not say that they cannot play at the next level. It rather works to remind them they have more to accomplish at their current level of play. Whether a quarterback can play at the NFL level or not, the answer is never no, it’s just not yet.
Final Thoughts
The quarterback position will always be the great separator in the NFL. It creates a dividing line between contenders and pretenders. As teams continue to gamble millions on the next face of the franchise, the need for a more thoughtful, modern, and consistent framework for evaluation has never been greater.
Parcells understood that winning in the NFL starts long before a quarterback ever steps on a professional field. His original rules weren’t about predicting greatness. They were about reducing risk and building confidence that a prospect had the foundation to succeed.
Our updated criteria doesn’t abandon his vision. Instead, it sharpens it for today’s game. It recognizes the changing landscape of college football, the impact of NIL and the transfer portal, and the nuances of modern offenses while still emphasizing experience, production, decision-making, and leadership.
This isn’t a crystal ball. Game film still needs to be studied and contextualized. This is simply a filter. It’s a way to separate NFL ready from tantalizing upside. To help teams avoid costly mistakes and better identify quarterbacks with the mental and physical makeup that make them ready to lead at the next level.
In a league where getting the quarterback right changes everything, this framework is not a guarantee of success. However, it may be a much-needed step toward getting more decisions right, and fewer disastrously wrong.
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