Rookie Review
Offensive rookies have exploded onto the scene in the football landscape over the last few years. From Saquon Barkley being the overall RB1 in PPR leagues his rookie season, to Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase becoming top five options at the wide receiver position after only one year of play. Rookies have dominated fantasy players’ mental space. My goal with ‘Rookie Review’ is to put into perspective how this year’s rookies are being used versus their weekly outcomes. This will help provide a basis of what to expect moving forward. The Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) gave us a couple cool stats to keep in mind, especially when evaluating rookies.
- Running backs who receive less then 13 carries in week 1 averaged under 500 rushing yards and about three rushing touchdowns.
- Only 10% of the top 24 wide receivers, over the last five years, had five or less targets in Week 1
- 85% of tight ends that finish in the top eight ran at least 23 routes in Week 1
Thanks to them for bringing these metrics to the forefront; but keep in mind this does not solidify a players outcome. Showing the probability of outcomes is the best way to predict their usage and stat-lines going forward. We will be looking at two rookies each week to keep this from dragging on. I assure you I will eventually get to your favorite rookie. For this week, we will be looking at two top rookies and putting them to the test over Underdog Fantasy’s Higher/Lower Pick ’em lines for this week. Use code FFLW when you sign up to match your deposit!
Breece Hall
Breece Hall‘s rookie review is interesting to say the least. He did not come close to the 13 carry threshold, only having six carries on 38 snaps Week 1 versus the Ravens. To be fair, the Jets only had 17 carries the entire day. What stands out to me is Hall ran 27 routes, accumulating eight targets. Michael Carter did match his passing utilization, while trumping his rushing usage; but it stands as Breece was used often enough to not write him off just yet.
I was at this game and I’ll say from experience, the Jets’ offensive line did not hold up for more then three seconds on any given play. I don’t expect a much better outcome in Week 2 against another strong AFC North defense in the Browns, but let’s be optimistic.
Breece Hall’s Higher/Lower in this week’s Underdog Pick ’em comes to 48.5 rushing + receiving yards
I’m taking the over on this line. Breece should see a slight workload increase, while maintaining his target share. I’m expecting Hall to top 50 yards total in Week 2. With that being said, the Jets’ offense doesn’t look good, and it’s not going to get better in Week 2. I’m not starting Hall this week in fantasy, but don’t panic just yet. His usage will get better week-over-week as we’ve seen with rookie running backs time and time again.
Breece Hall led all rookie RB’s in almost every major receiving stat category in week 1 👀
• most targets (8)
• most receptions (6)
• most yards (38) pic.twitter.com/edGcMB1xKh— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 13, 2022
Drake London
Outside of Kyle Pitts, Drake London was the go to guy in the Falcons’ offense. He was tied for the most targets on the team and was targeted on 23% of his routes. London is expected to make a big impact sooner rather then later. Five catches for 74 yards is a very good first career game. With some consistent QB play, London could be in for a healthy year one.
Drake London is facing a Underdog Higher/Lower of 4.5 receptions for week two against the Rams.
I’m fully expecting a bounce back game from the LA defense, so I’m going to take the under on receptions. My projections for him against the Rams are cautiously optimistic, having him only hit four catches on the day. I do have him finding the end zone for his first career score, even with the lack of catches. The Falcons should be throwing the ball in what might be a hopeless effort.
Drake London was the highest graded rookie WR in Week 1 🔥 pic.twitter.com/hdeRMoKAlI
— PFF Bet (@PFF_Bet) September 13, 2022
What to Expect
Each week I’ll come back to my projections to see how they fared against the box score. And each week we’ll be taking a look at two new rookie performances. At the end of the year, we’ll tally up how many lines I won versus what I whiffed on.
Be sure to sign up for Underdog Fantasy using code FFLW for a deposit match and hit those Pick ’em lines for week two football.
