Seth Williams: The next undervalued WR?

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Seth Williams

Can Seth Williams be one of the more undervalued wide receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft? Let’s dive in.

You can view my previous player profile of Javian Hawkins here.

Many college players who have great production do not always turn into the best NFL prospects.  NFL scouts would like to see production on the field but they are more looking for talent and traits that would translate specifically to the NFL.

A good example would be Terry McLaurin out of Ohio State. At Ohio State, McLaurin had a modest career with  around 1,200 yards. Many did not see him being a high prospect coming out of college.  He was surprisingly taken in the 3rd round in 2019 NFL Draft and has shown that he is one of the great young receivers in the league.

The 2021 rookie class is deep at wide receiver, and one to keep an eye out could be Seth Williams. Similar to McLaurin, he has traits that could make him successful in the NFL; but some of his stats in college do not compare well to the other top WRs of the class. Lets take a deeper dive into Seth Williams.

 

Up and Down at Auburn

Seth Williams came out of high school as a 4-star Top-200 prospect with offers from top schools like Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Georgia per 247sports. Playing in 10 games as a freshman, Williams had a solid season with 500 yards and 5 TDS with over 20 YPR (yards per reception). His sophomore campaign built off of his freshmen year with 59 receptions, over 800 yards, and 8 TDs; but his YPR average decreased to 14. His Junior year saw an increase in average YPR; but reception, yards, and TDs all decreased.

If you just look at the college stats it is a bit concerning seeing his catch rate decrease each year (from 65% to 56% to 44%). That said, Williams had a target share at Auburn of 29% and over 100 targets in both 2019 and 2020 per PlayerProfiler. Williams was a big part of the offense in his last two years, so why the inefficiency?

One reason is coach Gus Malzahn at Auburn. Malzahn’s offenses had successful years in the SEC, but mostly in the running game. Per Teamrankings, in 8 years at Auburn, Malzahn’s passing offense averaged a ranking of 86th in passing yards per game. Not only was this because of subpar QB play, but the scheme did not take advantage of Williams’ skillset.

The Tape

Looking at Seth Williams’ games over the past two years, it was a bit of a rough watch. As many college football fans know, Bo Nix has been the QB during those years and has not looked good at all. When Williams was open, Nix would throw late or behind which would result in turnovers or bad incompletions. Nix’s play is not the only bad thing that I noticed.

The scheme of the offense and routes run by Williams were very vanilla and explains some of the low catch rates.  From watching All-22s from both his Sophomore and Junior year, the routes seemed to be short slants or ins, comeback routes or just deep go routes. The scheme seemed to have Williams clear out the defense while slot receivers go underneath. When Williams was targeted on deep routes it was contested catches. 19% of his catches in 2019 and 2020 were contested per PFF_NCAA. Below you see an example of passes Williams was dealing with.

75% of Williams snaps were on the outside, and he does a great job of shielding defenders off for contested catches. Since he is so good at boxing out defenders and coming down with jump balls, it makes sense to utilize that talent; but it seemed the offense would rely on that from Williams far too often. When he did get receptions outside of jump balls, Williams showed to be great after the catch. In the past two years, Williams had 106 receptions, forcing a missed tackle on 29 of them.

He shows great balance and ability to make people miss with an array of moves – including impressive hurdles over defenders – then sticking the landing and continuing down the field. Another positive of Williams’ game is his great blocking on runs and after other teammates would make catches. He shows his physicality and puts forth great effort in blocking.

Fantasy Football Outlook

The big question about Seth Williams is he did not get great separation in college. This is thought because some believe he does not have the ability or that it was influenced by offensive scheme and poor QB play. I personally believe that with some better offensive concepts and coaching, Williams can get the separation in the NFL to be a successful wide receiver.

With great balance and YAC ability, Williams’ profile shows good athleticism and speed. He is a physical wide receiver and can beat bump coverage, with a good stutter step to beat corners off the line. Another positive is Williams’ willingness to block and how he brings maximum effort with his whole frame. Blocking is huge in the NFL and can allow a rookie to get on the field more often if he excels at it.

I think with his talent that a team will select him in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NFL Draft.  As you can see below his weighted dominator statistic compares well to recent 1st or 2nd rd drafted WRs around his size (DJ Chark, Denzel Mims, and Devante Parker).

I believe Williams can immediately have an impact in the red zone and as a deep threat. With the right landing spot, that could be even more true. I believe Washington, Philadelphia, Detroit, or Baltimore are places where Williams could instantly provide production. All of those teams have needs at WR and could use a big bodied playmaker. If those teams choose not to spend a 1st rounder on a wide receiver, then Williams would be a great option on day 2 of the NFL Draft. In Dynasty rookie drafts with the deep WR rookie class, Williams can still be available in mid 3rd round and is a player you should try to get on your teams.

 

Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.

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