As we enter into the heart of fantasy football draft season, the League Winners Fantasy Football experts are here to bring you their latest Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023, as defined here:
- Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position ADP in 2023. A sleeper must be drafted outside the top 100 picks.
- Bust: A highly regarded player who will underperform his ADP in 2022. A bust must be drafted inside the top 100 picks.
- Breakout: A player (rookies excluded) who will rise up with career-best numbers in 2023 and make a huge impact. For these, we targeted players entering years two, three or four of their careers.
- Our expert panel is comprised of the following League Winners Fantasy writers: Aaron St. Denis, Tanner Ward, Randy Vuxta, Harry Prskalo and Erika Brown. Each writer named a sleeper, a breakout and a bust for the 2023 season. You can find their picks below, and their analysis and insight on the players they chose.
- For our full set of rankings and more check out theleaguewinners.com.
Tanner Ward’s Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023
Sleeper: Zach Charbonnet, RB – Seattle Seahawks
The second-round rookie in Seattle has a real shot at being a steal in your fantasy draft this season. Zach Charbonnet currently has an ADP of 113 according to FantasyPros and could carve a significant role into the Seahawk’s run game.
Teammate Kenneth Walker showed a lot of inconsistency last year, especially near the goal line. He managed just nine yards on his 17 attempts inside the 10-yard line. That is only 0.5 yards per attempt. A total of 34 running backs had a minimum of 11 attempts inside the ten last season, and Walker was the only one who averaged less than a yard per carry and only managed to find the endzone twice. Charbonnet could be a second-half breakout if he can find more consistency than the incumbent and earn a larger role in the offence.
Breakout: Tua Tagovailoa, QB – Miami Dolphins
I can admit I was not sold on Tua Tagovailoa going into last year. I can now confirm that I am firmly seated on the Tua hype train. He led the league in yards per attempt last year and he should be near the top again this season.
When projecting Tua and the Dolphins, I used his pass attempts averaged from the 11 full games he played last season while dropping his yards per attempt and touchdown rate a full percent. That still projects him to throw for just over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. If he remains healthy along with his speedy weapons, Tua is poised for a monster 2023 campaign.
Bust: Rachaad White, RB, – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I can’t get myself to buy into Rachaad White this season. In fact, if he plays for the Buccaneers and his last name is not Godwin, you will not find that player on my 2023 fantasy roster.
We will see a much different offense this year in Tampa, one that will not finish dead last in the league again in rush attempts. But this team will not be competitive; and I do not see them being able to run the ball efficiently. While we will see more rush attempts this season for the Buccaneers, there will be fewer high-value touches as running back targets will decrease along with opportunities near the goal line. White is currently being drafted at 63rd overall and that is just way too rich for me. Let one of your league mates deal with this headache.
Randy Vuxta’s Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023
Sleeper: Javonte Williams, RB – Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams entered last season poised for a massive breakout. After coming off a successful finish as the RB17 in 2021, Williams was expected to break out into an RB1 season. Unfortunately, William’s 2022 campaign came to a quick end with an ACL and LCL tear in Week 4. Not only that, but the rest of the Bronco’s offense took a major step back underneath Nathaniel Hackett.
Williams is currently valued as the RB26 in most drafts, sandwiched between Alexander Mattison and Rachaad White. While the concern coming back from this serious an injury is present, the upside alone is worth the addition to the team.
The addition of Sean Payton (and more importantly the removal of Nathaniel Hackett) could turn Williams into an Alvin Kamara-type running back. Adding another year of creating rapport with Russell Wilson, Williams clearly comes synonymous with the name League Winner!
Breakout: Brandon Aiyuk, WR – San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk ended 2022 as the WR15 in fantasy formats – and is poised to increase his role. Aiyuk has cemented himself as one of the top route runners in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, with Shanahan even reporting that he sees Aiyuk as a focal point going forward. Aiyuk has also emerged as a favourite target of Brock Purdy, who is expected to be the 49ers starting quarterback going forward.
At the same time, Aiyuk has also been in trade reports with the upcoming payday for Deebo Samuel. A change of scenery for Aiyuk would let him go from fringe WR2 to a true WR1 in fantasy football. Whether he finishes the season in San Francisco or in another jersey, he should see an emergence into top-ten fantasy value.
Bust: Tony Pollard, RB – Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard was a steal last year, emerging as a fantastic running back and finishing as the RB8 during a contract year. Pollard was able to do all this while being the team’s backup running back to Ezekiel Elliott, who the Cowboys let walk this past offseason. However, I see massive regression in Pollard’s future.
First, Pollard has yet to prove himself in a primary role. Being the receiving back for the Cowboys allowed him fresher legs and the ability to have his explosiveness. Speaking of legs, Pollard left his playoff game against the 49ers with a broken fibula and a high ankle sprain. All reports see Pollard being ahead of schedule on his recovery, but with any injury, it is something to monitor. Pollard’s smaller frame could see him not being able to withstand a higher volume going from a running back by committee to a more top-heavy backfield.
Finally, the offensive coordinator that led to Pollard’s breakout has left and joined the Chargers. Offensive play-calling duties are falling back onto head coach Mike McCarthy which resulted in Pollard having a much worse finish (28). This leads me to believe that Pollard will not live up to his RB7 price tag.
Erika Brown’s Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023
Sleeper: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE – Tennessee Titans
In 2022, Chigoziem Okonkwo was second in total receiving yards on the Titans, behind Robert Woods and ahead of Treylon Burks. And while I suspect Burks to be the WR2 in the offense with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Okonkwo has the potential to be the WR3.
The Titans had a total of just 16 passing touchdowns last season. Okonkwo had three of them, which was second on the team. Even if the Titans decide a quarterback switch is on the horizon, Okonkwo is a solid player in a barren receiving field.
Breakout: Brian Robinson Jr, RB – Washington Commanders
Playing two fewer games in 2022, Brian Robinson actually had more rushing yards than Antonio Gibson. With Gibson stating he wants more passing work, that leaves Robinson to be the bell-cow runner. Last year he saw 15+ carries in eight of the 12 games he played in. Robinson only had two rushing touchdowns on the season, but as a second-year back, I expect that number to increase. Volume is great in a running back. If the new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, continues with the same offensive scheme, Robinson will definitely be one to watch.
Bust: D’Andre Swift, RB – Philadelphia Eagles
I was burned by D’Andre Swift last year, so this is a personal pick. But also, in reality, the Philadelphia running back room is a crowded one. They not only brought in Swift this offseason, but also Rashaad Penny to the mix. They also still have Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott on the team.
Since 2020, Swift has rushed for only a total of 1680 yards, averaging only 560 per season. Swift has only had three 100-yard games; and I don’t see his usage changing much on the Eagles offense. Although he’s not a top running back, I’m still fading him and the whole uncertainty of the Philly running back room.
Harry Prskalo’s Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023
Sleeper: Damien Harris, RB – Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost their leading rusher and brought in Damien Harris this offseason. There is a chance he can be a League Winner in the 10th round; the potential to be the Jamaal Williams of the 2023 season.
One thing we know is that the Bills will be in the red zone a lot this season. In 2021, Harris rushed for 15 TDs, and the Bills’ offense gives him the best chance for that to happen again. James Cook isn’t a threat as a pure running back. Harris is the better rusher; if he can stay healthy then he is an obvious lottery ticket in the 10th round.
Breakout: Justin Fields, QB – Chicago Bears
The highlight reel level of play that Justin Fields displayed last year is incredible. He is one of the best rushing QBs in the league and that comes with many fantasy points. Once the Bears let Fields do what he does best, he was winning fantasy managers consecutive weeks. Fields had back-to-back weeks with 145+ rushing yards and one or more rushing touchdowns, which is why he is someone you have to consider taking that next step.
We saw what Fields is capable of doing and just his rushing upside can bring him to a Top-5 QB. The Bears added WR DJ Moore which should help Fields even more this season. I believe this will be the year where Fields establishes himself as a top QB option.
Bust: Travis Etienne Jr, RB – Jacksonville Jaguars
I am all out on Travis Etienne this season – and this is why you should too. Etienne started off hot last season. However, he had a span of six weeks where he did not score more than 15 fantasy points. The passing work we were supposed to get from him never came. Etienne was targeted on only 12.7% of his routes, which would make it the second worst among all RBs. Not only is he not a reliable pass-catching option, but the Jaguars also drafted Tank Bigsby and signed D’Ernest Johnson. That is more competition than I want to deal with. With Etienne going in the 3rd round in fantasy football drafts, I will be passing on him every time.
Aaron St. Denis’ Sleepers, Breakouts & Bust for 2023
Sleeper: Greg Dulcich, TE – Denver Broncos
Greg Dulcich came into the 2022 season with much hype surrounding his athleticism and talent. Yet due to a combination of injuries and a struggling offense, he didn’t produce the way many anticipated. New head coach Sean Payton is the offensive mind that the Broncos needed to reach their full potential. With Payton calling Dulcich a swiss-army-like weapon on the field, there is no limit to his upside this season. There’s plenty of hype surrounding the top tiers of tight ends, making Dulcich an afterthought and as such provides great value as a late-round target in drafts.
Breakout: Kenny Pickett, QB – Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett did not have a season to write home about in 2022, but few Pittsburgh Steelers did. In their first season without Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, the Steeler’s offense made everything look difficult; but with a talented group of pass-catchers that includes Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth, even a small amount of progression would lead to a useful fantasy season for managers.
I should elaborate on Pickett, in that he is only someone I am targeting in superflex leagues. I anticipate him taking a huge step forward and growing into a high-end QB2, but it would take a massive leap forward for him to find his way into the QB1 ranks. So far, that’s a bet I’m not willing to make at this point in time. If you’re in a superflex league, he goes off the board late and is as solid as they come for a QB2. Pickett is giving me a major Kirk Cousins vibe, which while not exciting, is still a very valuable asset in superflex leagues.
Bust: Alexander Mattison, RB – Minnesota Vikings
I’m out on Alexander Mattison! I understand that in the limited starts he’s made over the past few years he was a top-five running back, but those were under different circumstances. In those previous starts, he was used as the lead back due to unexpected injuries to Dalvin Cook. This time around, the Vikings know Cook won’t be on the field and can gameplan better to ensure Mattison doesn’t wear down.
I anticipate Ty Chandler or DeWayne McBride having a larger role in the Vikings offense than many analysts expect. Over the past few years, Mattison’s efficiency has continuously decreased and an increase in his workload is certainly going to continue that trend. I see Alexander Mattison as the 2023 version of Mike Davis. Buyer beware!
