Why drafting a quarterback early in your fantasy football league won’t help your championship odds.
This article is not intended for fantasy football leagues with a super flex; but can be applicable.
You may believe that drafting a quarterback early in your fantasy football league will bring you closer to winning a championship. While the quarterback position is the most important one in the NFL, that’s not the case in fantasy. More likely than not, you’re drafting your quarterback too early, and spreading yourself too thin at other positions.
In the past three years, the Top-3 quarterbacks were all drafted in the fourth round or later based on ADP. Most are familiar with Patrick Mahomes‘ breakout year in 2018, but not many remember that his overall ADP that year was 108; the 9th-round. He finished the season more than 60 points ahead of the QB2 (Matt Ryan) and averaged nearly four more FPPG (fantasy points per game) more than him. The #1 QB based on ADP (22 overall) that year was Aaron Rodgers, who finished as the QB6. That’s not bad, but not what you’re hoping for from the first quarterback taken off the board. A similar pattern occurs for the following years.
After a stellar 2018 campaign, the #1 QB based on ADP (10th overall) was Patrick Mahomes. He wouldn’t live up to expectations either, finishing as the QB8 and the 15-most points overall in PPR leagues; not warranting that draft selection at all. The QB1 of that year was Lamar Jackson. Like Mahomes from the previous year, his average ADP was the 9th-round (109 overall). He scored over 400 points and averaged nearly 6 more FPPG than the QB2 in that year.
Lastly we look at our most recent year, 2020. The Mahomes hype died down a bit after the previous year (despite winning the Super Bowl), but he was still the first QB off the board. The 2019 QB1, Lamar Jackson, was selected right behind him based on average ADP. Neither QB could buck the trend, and finished outside of the Top-3 (though Mahomes had a Top-3 FPPG). As we all know the QB1 in 2020 was the Bills’ Joshua Allen. Allen’s average ADP was 74 overall which is the top of the 6th-round in 12-team leagues.
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Out of all the positions in fantasy football, quarterback may mean the least in terms of importance based on ADP. The difference between the 1st and 12th ranked player at the position was 111.62 points. This was the second-shortest gap among all offensive positions, only behind the WR group (if you read my Zero WR article this would make even more sense). The largest difference is the draft capital used.
Davante Adams finished as the WR1, and he was the WR2 in terms of ADP in 2020. In 2019, the WR2 based on ADP also finished as the WR1 (Michael Thomas). This pattern continues to persist, as 2018 showed the same results, this time with DeAndre Hopkins. In essence, the draft capital used on WRs generated a better expected outcome than the quarterback position.
When drafting in your fantasy football league, don’t allow yourself to panic when multiple quarterbacks are taken early. While you may think you’ve missed out on an elite player, you may end up with incredible value instead.
What if, when you’re on the clock, you are trying to decide between Robert Woods and Patrick Mahomes, like round 5?
Guru i would look at woods as he probably would be your wr2.I think having mahomes is great but do you really want your wr2 to be say a jarvis Landry or an emmanuel sanders type.I would go woods and look at like a dak prescott kyler murray a round or 2 later