Entering the 2021 season we knew the Tennessee Titans were going to be a good team. But we were not expecting them to win their division by three games. With 12 wins, they easily won the division over the Colts with only nine wins – which was not enough to earn them a playoff spot. After dominating their division, the Titans landed the coveted number 1 seed in the division and a first round bye in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Titans and their fans, they were eliminated from the playoffs in their first game by the Cincinnati Bengals in a close game.
With many of their major offensive and defensive players returning, we should be expecting another decent season out of the Tennessee Titans. Vegas has an opening win total of 9.5 for Tennessee. This has them tied at the top of the division with the Indianapolis Colts. But actual NFL wins do not always correspond to fantasy success.
Ryan Tannehill finished as the 12th ranked QB, AJ Brown finished as the 32nd ranked WR, and Anthony Firkser was the 35th ranked fantasy TE, according to Fantasy Pros. But in just eight games, Derrick Henry was able to finish the season as the 14th ranked fantasy RB.
There are reasons to be excited about some of the fantasy options on the Titans for the 2022 season.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill
After a decent start to his career, Tannehill had a bit of a slump before joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. That move was just what he needed to resurrect his career. Coming into the 2022 season, Tannehill is coming off back-to-back top-12 fantasy performances. With under 4000 yards in both seasons, a lot of Tannehill’s fantasy production came on the ground. Tannehill accounted for over 250 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns in each season.
Despite those numbers, I am worried about his ability to repeat his rushing production. Prior to the 2020 season, Tannehill only rushed for over 250 yards in a season once. In addition, Tannehill only had one season with more than 1 rushing touchdown before joining the Titans.
Throughout his career, Tannehill averages just under 3 rushing touchdowns per season. If the 7 he scored in 2021 drops down to just his average, Tannehill will lose 24 fantasy points over the length of the season. This drop would have pushed him down to QB18 on the season. With a healthy Derrick Henry, Tannehill will likely get less goal line work than he did in 2021.
In 2021 the Tennessee Titans finished near the middle of the pack in passing yardage with just 3745 yards. The struggles in the passing game were in part due to a lack of suitable weapons and the offensive line play. The Titans were one of the worst pass-blocking teams in the NFL. Only five teams allowed more sacks during the season. If the line can improve at all then Tannehill should be able to be a bit more efficient.
Highest sack rates over expectation in 2021 after accounting for (time to) pressure, situation, defensive call and time to "action" (=throw, sack, scramble, throw away):
Joe Burrow
Baker Mayfield
Justin Fields
Zach Wilson
Ben Roethlisberger
Ryan Tannehill— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) April 21, 2022
Running Backs
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry was arguably the best fantasy running back for the first half of the 2021 season. Unfortunately, we did not get to see him after Week 8 due to a Jones fracture in his right foot. This injury kept him sidelined until the Titan’s playoff game. In his return to play, Henry had 20 rushing attempts for 62 yards and a touchdown. This was by no means what we were seeing at the start of the year – but it was a very encouraging sign.
With a full offseason to recover I think it is fair to say that Henry should be back to nearly full health. I do think it is a little difficult to expect him to return to his pre-injury performance level, but he should still be one of the top fantasy options in most drafts.
Only player with 2,000 rushing yards after contact since 2020
👑 Derrick Henry – 2,218
(📸 @Titans) pic.twitter.com/lnTuoSAqCY
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 15, 2022
Running Back Depth
Outside of Henry, the Tennessee Titans have several other RBs under contract. Trenton Cannon, Dontrell Hilliard, and Jordan Wilkins will all be in the mix for the change of pace and pass-catching roles. But Henry also has a role in the passing game which really limits the fantasy relevance of any of the other RBs on the team.
Last season while Henry was out, Dontrell Hilliard played fairly well when given a bigger workload. In Week 12, Hilliard had 12 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown against the New England Patriots. I expect Trenton Cannon to fill more of a special teams role. But this is a role that will make it easier to make the roster.
In addition to the players already on the roster, the Titans have several mid to late round picks that could be invested at RB. Though this class is not considered to be incredibly strong at the RB position, there are several expected to go on Day 2 or 3 that could also contend to win the pass-catching and change of pace role for the Titans. I would expect the Titans to draft at least one RB to add competition in the backfield during camp.
Wide Receivers
With wide receivers like A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, many people had very high expectations for the Titans passing game. However, in 2021 the Titans ranked 23rd in total passing yards with just 3745 total yards. Only 2466 of those yards went to the wide receivers. This was in part due to the fact that the Titan’s offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking on the season according to PFF. Tannehill also threw for the 2nd most interceptions in his career in 2021.
A.J. Brown, Robert Woods
Coming off of back-to-back 1000 yard seasons to start his career, A.J. Brown failed to meet the mark in Year 3. Brown was only able to play in 13 games due to injuries. In those 13 games, Brown accounted for 869 yards and just 5 touchdowns. His career low in touchdowns could partly be attributed to the poor offensive line play, interceptions, or even the lack of an completely adequate running game.
Like many of the high end young WRs, A.J. Brown will be due a big extension soon. It appears that he will skip at least a portion of the off-season program to attempt to speed up those talks. I expect Brown to get his extension and I am looking forward to him getting back on track in the touchdown department this season.
🧵 New Thread 🧵
I’m going to post a random @1kalwaysopen_ clip here every single morning until that extension gets done pic.twitter.com/mIrpeADckT
— No Context Tennessee Titans (@NoContextTitans) April 19, 2022
Prior to the free agency period starting, the Titans released future hall of famer Julio Jones. This came after one disappointing season as a Titan. Shortly after the release, Tennessee got their new veteran WR in Robert Woods.
The Titans traded a 2023 6th round pick for the 30-year old who is recovering from a torn ACL. Woods tore his ACL in November, so he is unlikelyto be able to participate in all offseason activities. The veteran should be ready to start the season and will be a valuable piece to the offense as a whole.
When it comes to fantasy football, I just do not expect him to be as valuable as he was when he was on the Rams. The Titans are clearly a run-first team, and Woods is only the 2nd option in the passing game.
WR Depth
Aside from Brown and Woods there are a couple other WRs currently under contract. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine took advantage of the absences of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown last season and finished as the Titans 2nd best receiver. I do think he will have decent games, but not enough to be a player we want to have on our fantasy teams.
Like the running back position, I am expecting the Titans to use at least one of their picks to add a rookie WR. Unlike the RB position however, I would not be surprised to see the Titans use their first round pick at the position. According to Grinding the Mocks there are several highly touted WRs that should be available to the Titans. The Titans do have some other needs, but WR should be a priority for them in this draft.
Tight Ends
Last year, Anthony Firkser was the Titan’s most productive TE. During the season he only had 291 yards and 2 touchdowns. Geoff Swaim was the second most productive, with 210 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Even with such low production numbers, the TE position accounted for 20% of the total targets. It is clear that the Titans want to use their TEs, but sometimes it just doesn’t work out.
The Titans are team that have valued their TEs in the passing game.
Total TE Target Share
2021 – 20%
2020 – 28.5%
2019 – 23.9%
2018 – 20.4%If Austin Hooper can command the majority of the share, which I think he will, he could end up as a low end TE1 in 2022.
— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) March 19, 2022
This offseason, Firkser signed with Falcons and reunited with his former TE coach Arthur Smith. The Titans signed Austin Hooper, who was released by the Browns prior to the start of free agency; to replace the void left by Firkser.
It was not long ago that Hooper signed with the Browns to be the highest paid TE in league history. That was very short lived, just like Hooper’s time in Cleveland. He just never lived up to the expectations. Hooper failed to surpass 450 yards or 4 touchdowns in either of his two seasons with the Browns.
I expect Hooper to be the TE to roster from the Tennessee Titans. If you wait on TE in your drafts this offseason Hooper is probably going to be around in the last rounds of your draft. He is going to have opportunity to succeed. But unless the pass blocking improves and Tannehill is a bit more efficient the TE position could leave us disappointed again.
