Since 2006, New Orleans Saints fans have been blessed with one of the best QB’s in NFL history in Drew Brees. They saw some really good years, including a Super Bowl in 2009. The past 4 years have been bitter for Saints fans, as they dealt with some postseason heartbreaks. The Super Bowl window has closed in New Orleans, whether or not Brees plans to return. But can this team find a way to remain competitive heading into an offseason that seems like the most important in Saints’ history. Let’s break it down!
A Sticky Cap Situation
The New Orleans Saints head into 2021 currently sitting at $-105,137,017 in cap space. Clearing up 105 million dollars in cap space isn’t easy, but some decisions have made themselves easy for Mickey Loomis.
Assuming Drew Brees retires, he would clear just over 36 million dollars in cap, while also incurring a 22 million dead cap hit. If Brees waits until June 2nd of 2021 to officially retire, it would only be a 11 million dead cap hit. Assuming Loomis and Brees would likely wait, that would clear 25 million dollars in cap space. With Brees’ retirement being imminent, the Saints now sit at $-80 million dollars in cap space.
The biggest problem for the Saints isn’t Drew Brees retiring, but the fact there is a multitude of players who need either an extension, contract restructuring, or even being cut. Some notable names are set to hit the market in 2021 or 2022, including Marcus Williams, Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramcyzk, Marshon Lattimore, and Trey Hendrickson. Williams and Hendrickson are free agents here in 2021, while the other 3 big name stars are free agents in 2022.
The Saints first priority needs to be retaining Marcus Williams. Free safety Marcus Williams has been one of the most underrated safeties in football, tallying over 13 INTs and 186 solo tackles in just his first 4 years. He’s shown tremendous speed in the open field, and is able to make open field tackles with ease. Williams is my most important resigning this offseason, and I personally wouldn’t be upset if this ended up being the only resigning the Saints make out of the free agents in 2021.
Hendrickson really came into his own this year, probably playing himself out of New Orleans. The Saints are not in the business to be taking risks with their cap, and resigning Hendrickson to a lucrative long term deal brings forth much more risk than resigning Williams. While Hendrickson was 2nd in the NFL in sacks at 13.5, he didn’t really get much playing time in New Orleans up until this year.
The Saints invested in Marcus Davenport instead of Hendrickson, spending high-end 1st round draft capital to get Davenport. While letting Davenport play and develop seemed like the right call, it saw Hendrickson get lower snap numbers through his first few years. Not allowing Hendrickson to play meaningful snaps early in his career kind of cornered the Saints, as it allows other teams to now come in and bid on the star edge rusher.
If the Saints would’ve allowed Hendrickson to play early in his career, we could’ve saw what he brought to the table and signed him to an extension that would’ve been a much more reasonable price. However, nobody can expect breakout season from a player in his 4th year in the league, right? Unfortunately the Saints need to let Hendrickson walk, unless he’s willing to take a super team friendly deal. The Saints can’t afford to sign him long term and it not pan out, and with him just having one season where he really shined I can’t see why the Saints would dump a big chunk of money into a high risk player.
Other notable free agents are Jameis Winston, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, and Jared Cook.
Taysom Hill is set to make 16 million in 2021, it doesn’t make much sense for the Saints to re-sign Winston unless they are absolutely sold on him being the future. Taysom Hill was named starter just moments after Drew Brees went out with an injury, showing us Payton thought Hill gave them a better chance to win.
Alex Anzalone played rotational snaps as an outside and inside linebacker for the New Orleans Saints in 2020, and with an expiring contract he should see decent market value this spring. With the Saints having to work cap space magic, retaining everyone really isn’t an option. I really do believe the Saints will try and match just about every offer, but will ultimately fall short on some key players over the past 4 years. I think we see Jared Cook walk, along with Sheldon Rankins, and possibly Anzalone depending how rich he gets on the open market.
Contract Reconstructions
Contract reconstructions will become very familiar with New Orleans Saints’ fan this spring, as we will see a multitude of key players rework their contracts to try and save the team some money; players like Cameron Jordan, Andrus Peat, and newly acquired Kwon Alexander.
Cameron Jordan was once one of the best edge rushers in football, finding himself in 6 pro bowls and a first team all pro in 2017. It seemed like Jordan had hit the age apex this past season, seeing his play drop off in place for guys like Trey Hendrickson to step up and play a bigger role. Jordan is still a valuable asset to this Saints team, but at 18.9M cap hit in 2021, it seems like time to sit down and reconstruct that contract.
Andrus Peat’s contract is flat out hideous. Although he showed signs of promise in 2020, there isn’t much of his game that really stands out. He allows an average of 3 sacks per season, but has struggled to stay penalty free. He also is the 3rd highest paid guard in all of professional football. He’s a valuable guard still, as it isn’t an easy position to draft or develop, but restructuring his contract means more for the entire o-line, freeing up money for future extensions of Armstead and Ramcyzk.
Kwon Alexander was a key add for the Saints in 2020. Coming over from San Francisco, Alexander brought some much needed speed to a Saints defense that was atop the charts in almost every category. However, Kwon also brought over a hefty cap hit of 13.4M. The Saints can’t pay that, obviously, but will try and work out a deal that works for both Kwon and New Orleans. Keeping Kwon in New Orleans should be optimal for the Saints, pairing him with Demario Davis for the foreseeable future.
Jared Cook and Sheldon Rankins will also hit the open market. These two players who were key names in the playoff runs over the past 4 years.
With the drafting of Adam Trautman, and seeing his snap share significantly increase over the past season, I think it was a tell-tale sign that this would be Cook’s last year. I really liked what Cook brought to the table, but his inconsistency proved to be costly in a multitude of games. Trautman wasn’t a freak out of college, but has shown good traits in a young TE that could help him succeed soon in his very young career.
With the extension of David Onyemata, the Saints don’t find themselves in a position in where paying two defensive tackles makes sense. Rankins is a very solid player, and should get a lucrative deal on the open market.
2022 Free Agents
2022 poises more questions for the New Orleans Saints than 2021. Marshon Lattimore, Ryan Ramcyzk, and Terron Armstead are set to hit the open market. This is where cutting or restructuring Andrus Peat’s contract means something. Having two tackles hit the open market is one thing, but having two elite tackles hit the market is a whole other demon.
It’s unlikely the Saints retain both veteran tackles, as both should draw big interest on the open market. I would think Ramcyzk would be the first person the Saints would call. He would be entering his age 28 season, compared to Armstead’s 31 age season. He is already a first team all-pro, earning that award back in 2019. Armstead has been a better tackle for the past few years, but with him getting up there in age, it wouldn’t make the most sense resigning him and letting Ramcyzk walk. Even if Ramcyzk were to demand a hefty contract, I think he’s undoubtedly the Saints first priority and will lock down a cornerstone position for years to come.
Terron Armstead will also hit the open market, while entering his age 31 season. Armstead has been that cornerstone tackle for the Saints, even when Ramcyzk wasn’t who he has become. Armstead has had 3 straight pro bowl years, while also being named All-Conference 1st team back in 2018 from Pro Football Weekly. However, the Saints will still be up near the cap, having only 30M or so to work with.
Armstead is still a valuable player, and a very good tackle. I wouldn’t count out the Saints resigning Armstead despite his age, as locking up your two tackle positions could bode well for whomever is playing QB. However, I think the Saints should look another direction.
Armstead will demand a huge amount of AAV, or average annual value, on the open market. Any team will be willing to pay him whatever he wants to come and be a star tackle on their o-line. I don’t think with the trajectory of the Saints it would be wise to retain a 31 year old tackle, especially one who will be paid as a top tackle in the league.
Entering only his age 26 season, Marshon Lattimore will be touted as one of the best free agents on the market, period. He’s an all-world player and a difference maker in the secondary. He’s a top dollar signing, while also being a top dollar talent. I really like Marshon Lattimore, personally. He’s a ballhawk who has tremendous speed and burst. He’s been to 3 pro bowls, and was also named NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year back in 2017.
Where it gets tricky for Lattimore is the fact the Saints won’t have much money, as Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas will see their cap hit rise. I think retaining Ramcyzk and Lattimore is doable, but it would most likely mean Armstead would leave in free agency.
I’ve always believed that establishing your cornerstone players when restructuring a roster is key. Make sure you have your leaders, and difference makers, before you can’t find them anymore. I think Ramcyzk and Lattimore are those cornerstone players, and they happen to be on both sides of the ball. Retaining one and if not both should be essential for the Saints.
The QB Room
This is where things really get interesting, as the New Orleans Saints haven’t had to question the QB position in over a decade. Taysom Hill is set to make 16 million in 2021, with a dead cap hit of 11 million if released or a 4 million dead cap hit if traded. He’s going to be on the Saints roster come 2021. At 16 million, that would make Hill the 17th highest paid QB in football next year. That’s a pretty reasonable contract for a guy who went 3-1 in the absence of Drew Brees.
Taysom should us he can win games, whether it be with his arm or his legs. He’s not the greatest passer and doesn’t have the greatest arm, but he has some wheels and elusiveness that could flourish with an offseason under Sean Payton. Sean Payton showed us a little glimpse of how the offense would run with Taysom, but with a full offseason and potentially a preseason, I think Taysom would make a fine starter in the wake of Drew Brees.
Come 2022 it will get real interesting, as Taysom Hill is set to come off the books. As of now, the Saints would have not have a QB rostered come 2022. That obviously won’t stay the same, and it’s likely the Saints stick with Taysom for another year or two. I don’t see the Saints tearing it all down and rebuilding, and with the players we do have we are no doubt still competitive. We won’t be picking #1 overall to land a premier QB prospect anytime soon.
There is some hope however, as we bark upon one of the best QB classes in history. In a class with Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Trask, and Mac Jones, the New Orleans Saints may find themselves in prime position to land their future QB.
The Saints won’t have a top 24 pick though, and I would bet that 5 of those 6 go before the Saints get a chance to pick. With teams like the Jags, Jets, Falcons, Lions, Panthers, Patriots, Steelers, and Washington to pick before the Saints, it could be bad to sit and wait hoping one falls.
The Saints absolutely should trade up in this draft, sacrificing draft capital in this draft and in next years. I really like 4 of these guys in this class, that being Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Lance. The Saints won’t get Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson, but could definitely manage to work a trade up to land one of Fields or Lance. The time is now for New Orleans to get their future QB, and they should whatever it takes to land one of those 4 QBs.
I do believe the Saints super bowl window has closed, but that doesn’t mean it has to be shut for long. Retaining our key players and bringing in a franchise QB on a rookie deal could be just what this team needs to bring them back into Super Bowl conversations. I think these moves should be top priority over the next two years. It’s been fun watching Drew over the past 10 years, but now it’s time for a new face to lead us to the promise land.
Great research and well written. Geaux Saints!!!