After years of suggested fantasy football breakout, it seems like 2021 will finally be the year Mike Gesicki is able to put it all together.
Before we get into anything further, let’s all take a second and watch some of Mike Gesicki’s combine footage.
Holy shit, right? Gesicki is a physical freak (seriously, his PlayerProfiler page is a great rabbit hole to venture down), and we knew this even when he was at Penn State. Predating his insane combine, the 6’6” 247-pound TE specimen put out some eye-popping tape in college, but ended up going to Miami in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
The Gesicki breakout has been rumored for years, leading to many fantasy football draftniks swearing off buying into Gesicki at all. This season, however, is primed for the Mike Gesicki breakout that has been foretold for all these years. It’s been a long time coming, but the uber-athletic TE has a high enough ceiling that it may be well worth the wait.
Situation
The Dolphins are no longer darkhorses. They are no longer “underrated”. They are no longer trendy sleeper picks in the AFC. The Dolphins are in the midst of one of the most impressive rebuilds in the NFL, and are much further along than you might think.
The Miami offense has some solid foundational pieces already in place, and are handing the keys over to Tua Tagovailoa (yes I spelled that by memory, nbd) as he enters his second NFL season. Tua showed promise as a rookie, and if he takes a sophomore leap like many believe he can, Gesicki could be among the biggest beneficiaries.
In addition to Tua’s anticipated improvement in year two, Miami also parted ways with OC Chan Gailey, whose prehistoric offensive philosophy rarely features the TE. This is addition by subtraction as it relates to Gesicki’s value moving forward.
Usage
Due to his aforementioned elite athleticism, Gesicki can be utilized in the Miami offense in a number of ways. He was 2nd among all TEs in slot snaps with 298 (49.9%), and was one of only three TEs with over 1,000 air yards on the season.
It is well-known that young QBs, especially rookies, tend to rely on their TEs more heavily, but Gesicki actually saw a pretty consistent usage whether Tua was starting or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Gesicki finished inside the top-five in both receiving yards (703) and YAC (448), while seeing an average target distance of 11.9 yards (2nd-most among all TEs).
It’s an understatement to call Gesicki a matchup nightmare in the end zone, but his six total TDs were just the 9th-most at the TE position (compared to his 9 TDs last year). This can largely be attributed to the team’s increased reliance on the run game in the red zone (which resulted in an abysmal 58.33% success rate, 18th in the NFL), a trend I would expect to end in 2021 with an experienced Tua in a new offense.
Outlook
Especially at a seemingly thin TE position (though I expect the position as a whole to enjoy a nice bounce-back in 2021), Gesicki’s athleticism and unique usage simply provides too much of a ceiling to overlook. A year after being one of the most touchdown-dependent TEs in fantasy football (nearly 20% of his catches were TDs), Gesicki displayed the ability to line up anywhere on the field; establishing himself as arguably the most dangerous downfield TE threat in the league.
With Tua expected to be leading a much higher-powered Dolphins offense (possibly even with a shiny new playmaking toy like Ja’Marr Chase), expect Gesicki’s red zone opportunities to only increase. If Gesicki is able to pair his legit field-stretching receiving ability from 2020 with his red zone prowess of 2019 (each of which he has shown he can do), then the sky is the limit for the gifted 25-year-old. Gesicki oozes upside, and has legit top-five dynasty potential in fantasy football.
Mike Gesicki is a TE1 and if you’re not down with that, I got two words for ya…
