Three rookies to sell high in fantasy football dynasty leagues.
Every rookie class comes with optimism and promise. Every fantasy football manager dreams of hitting on the next Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase in their rookie drafts. When you draft a future superstar as a rookie, you are truly striking dynasty gold. But not all rookies are #leaguewinners, and not all rookies become even average producers at the NFL level. What’s more, is that rookies today are entering the NFL with extremely high dynasty price points. Drafting them in the right order in a rookie draft is challenging enough. Properly valuing them in relation to NFL veterans is an even bigger challenge.
With NFL training camps opening in roughly two months, there is still plenty of time to capitalize on incoming rookies. Rookies are being overvalued in dynasty leagues and/or are otherwise risky assets. I don’t expect the following fantasy football rookies to be outright busts at the NFL level. Their current stock is likely the highest it will be for the duration of their rookie seasons. Possibly, the highest for the duration of their entire careers.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB – DET (Sleeper ADP 1.03, KTC RB5)
Jahmyr Gibbs was selected with elite draft capital, going No. 12 overall to the Detroit Lions. Gibbs’ draft capital is exciting for fantasy football. However, the Lions using the No. 12 overall pick on him was one of the most egregious team-building decisions in the entire draft.
The Lions paid David Montgomery $11 million guaranteed to take over their workhorse RB role. Montgomery is coming off a career-low 235 total touches in 2022, which is a ridiculously high career-low number for a running back with four years of experience under his belt.
Presumably, the Lions plan on deploying Montgomery in Jamaal Williams‘ 2022 workhorse role and Gibbs in D’Andre Swift‘s 2022 change-of-pace role. That is an extremely concerning projection for more than one reason.
Williams out-touched Swift on a per-game basis in 2022 to the tune of 16.1 to 10.5. Williams also had 17 total touchdowns to Swift’s eight. This was largely due to the coaching staff’s extreme commitment to using Williams at the goal line.
Swift has been a general disappointment in the NFL. Gibbs will have to be extremely good in order to come in and immediately be better than Swift in the Lions’ offense. Swift led all qualifying NFL running backs on a yards-per-touch basis in 2022 with 6.3 per Pro Football Reference. He caught 48 passes on 70 targets and still finished as just the RB16 on a points-per-game basis in PPR leagues.
Trade Value
Explore the possibilities of trading Gibbs and a piece for high-end quarterbacks. Or you could target players like Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley on contending rosters, or lateral swaps into the tier of top 10 wide receivers.
Dalton Kincaid, TE – BUF (Sleeper ADP 1.10, KTC TE6)
Dalton Kincaid was the first tight end off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft. He was selected No. 25 overall by the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have one of the top passing offenses in the NFL.
While I understand the excitement for Kincaid, fantasy football managers as a whole are still stubborn as ever in resisting the harsh reality of tight end development in the league. Impact production from rookie tight ends is basically unheard of. Kincaid’s late first-round NFL draft capital does little to suggest that he will be the outlier in a years-long trend of players taking multiple years to become productive receivers at the position.
ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Kincaid to record a TE16 finish as a rookie. Clay projects Kincaid to accumulate less than 10 more catches and less than 100 more yards than fellow Bills TE Dawson Knox. He and Knox will likely both be on the field at the same time for plenty of snaps. Knox has produced in the offense for multiple seasons in a row. Knox just signed a four-year, $52 million contract extension this offseason with $31 million guaranteed. He won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.
Trade Value
I would be very aggressive in trying to trade Kincaid and a piece in order to tier up to Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, or George Kittle. I would also take a straight up swap for Dallas Goedert.
Zay Flowers, WR – BAL (Sleeper Rookie ADP 1.09, KTC WR31)
Zay Flowers was a big riser in the draft process and heard his name called in the first round of the NFL draft. He was selected No. 22 overall by the Baltimore Ravens – notably being drafted one pick ahead of fellow rookie WR Jordan Addison. He belongs in the first round of superflex rookie drafts with a first round NFL draft capital. However, Flowers faces an uphill climb to become a difference-making fantasy football wide receiver.
Flowers was the only wide receiver drafted in the first round who was not an early declare out of college. His production profile is good, but not great, coming out of a smaller program at Boston College. Not all Power 5 schools are built the same. Flowers didn’t have the chance to prove himself on a big stage the way that Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Addison did at the college level.
Flowers is also stepping into a less than ideal situation for a rookie wide receiver. Many fantasy football managers are hoping he will make a year-one impact. The Baltimore Ravens have been historically one of the most run-centric offenses in the league during Lamar Jackson’s career. Even when factoring in the addition of offensive coordinator Todd Monken to the coaching staff, Flowers has a talented group of pass catchers to compete with in All-Pro TE Mark Andrews, former first-round WR Rashod Bateman, and veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr., who the Ravens gave a nearly $14 million guaranteed contract to this offseason.
Trade Value
Veteran receivers in Flowers’ value range (according to KeepTradeCut) who I would happily trade for straight up include Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper.
Elijah Southwick
Elijah Southwick is a professional writer, editor and content creator covering sports news and fantasy football. He is a contributing writer for The League Winners and Lead Sports Content Writer at Degen Magazine.