Thursday Night Football: Betting Breakdown

Thursday Night Football Overview

Tonight we get a fun Thursday Night Football match up between two teams that are performing below preseason expectations, the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. Both are looking for a win to right their season this week. The line opened at -3 for the Broncos at home with the Over/Under being set at 43 points.  The Broncos are 2-2 on the season and 1-3 ATS. On the other side, we have the Colts who are 1-2-1 on the season and 1-3 ATS. This is an extremely tough game to handicap because both teams are under performing and are due for some positive offensive regression.

Colts Outlook

At the time of writing this, the spread has shifted half a point in favor of the Broncos (-3.5), likely because of the Colts’ announcement that their star running back, Jonathon Taylor, won’t be playing. This leaves RB Nyheim Hines and recently elevated (and former Bronco) RB Phillip Lindsay to take on the running load for the Colts. Matt Ryan will have to take command of this offense without leaning on Taylor, and he has not looked great so far with him.

Matt Ryan has five interceptions through the four games and the Colts average the least points per game at 14.3. This isn’t a great sign, as the offense is already worrisome and is losing their most important skill player. Ryan will be forced to throw often, and I expect Denver to get an interception or two along the way. The Colts will also be without All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard and S Julian Blackmon, who are two key pieces on defense.

Broncos Outlook

The Broncos announced earlier in the week that RB Javonte Williams tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. This leaves Denver with Melvin Gordon III and Mike Boone in the backfield. Gordon is nursing a neck injury and has 5 fumbles on his last 44 carries. Expect to see Boone get a decent amount of usage, regardless of Gordon’s game status. Denver should expect to rely more on Russell Wilson and the passing game if they want to come out with a win. The Colts are 30^th Overall in Pass Defense DVOA and have allowed over 225 passing yards in all, but one game this season.

Points Matter

The total being only 42 points isn’t surprising here. The Colts are 0-4 on Overs this year and the Broncos aren’t much better at 1-3 on Overs this season. Both teams have talented defenses who have been performing well to start the season. Denver and Indy are ranked 8^th and 13^th in Defensive DVOA, respectively. On the other side of the ball, both teams have talented players on their offense, yet neither team has figured it out so far. Denver and Indy are ranked 24^th and 32^nd overall, respectively.

Denver put up 23 points on the Raiders’ defense, their highest total of the year. To be fair, the Raiders have the 20th-ranked Defensive DVOA and have yet to hold any opponents under 20 points this season. Some interesting trends I found were that Indy is 9-0 for unders in their last 9 games and Denver games have gone under 11 of the last 15 times. Also, note that the last 5 Denver home games have all gone under as well. I expect this trend to continue and will be placing a unit on the Under 42, especially with both teams on a short week dealing with tons of injuries.

Final Picks

 

Spread:

Denver Broncos -3.5 (+105)

Total:

Under 42 (-110)

Props:

Russel Wilson Over 19.5 Completions (-130)

Russel Wilson Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Matt Ryan Over .5 Interceptions (-135)