As Bill Belichick showed us, it is better to get rid of a player a year too early, rather than a year too late. The window of fantasy football relevance for any player can slam shut quicker than you can say Todd Gurley, and the time to return maximum value for these former fantasy studs can pass you by before you know it.
These are some of the biggest names in fantasy football that are nearing (or perhaps already past) the twilight of their careers, and what you can expect from them this fantasy season. Some of these aging veterans you would be wise to flip ASAP, while some still might have enough in the tank to be #LeagueWinners.
Melvin Gordon
Melvin Gordon’s 2020 season was a massive success in terms of fantasy value. After garnering a pre-draft ADP of right around 29.8 (~RB18), Gordon rushed 215 times (the third-most attempts of his career) for 986 yards and 9 TDs, while adding a decent 32/158/1 line as a receiver.
All in all, Gordon finished his first season in Denver in rock-solid RB2 range (RB14 in PPR formats) while starting just ten games. Gordon proved he wasn’t just a product of an up-tempo Chargers offense, and translated his previous success to a new offense in Denver, turning in another impressive fantasy season.
Though Gordon’s ADP coming into 2021 isn’t exactly sky-high (he’s currently hovering around the 27-30 range overall, or roughly the RB17), it would, frankly, be a shock to see a 28-year-old Gordon return top-15 value at the running back position next season. Gordon is, in my opinion, being egregiously overvalued this offseason and would be at the top of my list for sell-high candidates. The wheels may be falling off this season; get out while you still can.
Julio Jones
Julio Jones is the greatest receiver of this generation, let’s get that out of the way right now. He is a no-doubt-in-hell Hall-of-Famer and he should walk in on the first ballot. His ten seasons in the NFL, all in Atlanta, have been as good as any career we will ever see. Though he will be 32 years old this upcoming season, the inevitable decline that comes for receivers over 30 still hasn’t found its way to Jones just yet.
Appearing in just nine total games, Jones turned in a career-worst 51/771/3 line, which still slated him as the overall WR14 in fantasy points per game (16.2). All this with Jones battling injuries throughout the year (Julio is the king of the “game-time decision” tag) and while Calvin Ridley enjoyed a monster breakout year of his own; en route to a WR5 finish. Despite all of this, Jones’ +23.9 production premium (WR8), 94.4% true catch rate (WR7), and 11.3 yards per target (WR3) all suggest that Jones is still an absolute difference-maker, both for fantasy and on the field.
While Jones is, admittedly, not as high in dynasty rankings due to his advanced age, please take advantage of panicking owners in your leagues jumping ship on Jones and bring him in as the perfect win-now piece. He just might be a #LeagueWinner.
David Johnson
In one of the least shocking sentences you will probably ever read, the Houston Texans made a bad decision. Extending David Johnson, who will turn 30 years old this season, is one of the biggest blunders of the Texans offseason so far. After being hand-picked by Bill O’Brien in the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to the desert, Johnson looked like a shell of his former self (although it was a significant improvement from his 2019 form that caused the Cardinals to celebrate getting him and his contract out of there).
In Houston, Johnson’s 73.7% opportunity share actually was 8th-highest among all RBs, cementing him as the definition of a usage-based RB2. Shockingly enough, Johnson actually averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game in 2020, making him the RB13 in that category. He also was utilized pretty well as a receiver, enjoying an 11.2% target share (RB17) and led all RBs with a 70.5% route participation. Despite his surprisingly high usage rate, Johnson struggled to gain anything more than what was given to him, ranking near the bottom of the league in elusiveness categories such as evaded tackles (RB28), juke rate (RB37), and EPA (RB137, and no that is not a typo).
Fast-forward to 2021, and it doesn’t have to get complicated. Johnson will be a 30-year-old running back in a bad offense (assuming Deshaun isn’t his quarterback), that will likely be among the worst teams in the league. Obviously David Johnson isn’t going for an RB1 price any time soon, but if someone in your league is willing to buy into the counting numbers and make an offer, you would be lucky to get nearly anything in return. Johnson’s fantasy value could be in store for a Gurley-esque decline.
Odell Beckham Jr.
The trajectory of Beckham’s fantasy value over the past three seasons has been fascinating. Once viewed as arguably the best wide receiver in football, Beckham has yet to catch 80 passes in a single season since 2016. Since coming over to the Browns, Beckham has struggled to establish himself as the elite WR1 option he was in New York, and his fantasy value has taken a nosedive.
If you would have told me in 2019 that a 28-year-old Beckham’s ADP just two years later would be right around 54.1 (~WR25), I would wonder what the hell happened. Well, what the hell happened is a mixture of injuries, schematic obstacles, and an overall weird fit in Cleveland that has all but wiped Beckham off the fantasy map.
For one, Beckham has had his fair share of injuries over his career, and his season-ending ACL tear in Week 7 adds another concerning entry to an already lengthy injury history. In 2019 (his first season in Cleveland), Beckham was stuck playing for Freddie Kitchens who legitimately might be the worst head ass coach these eyes have ever seen, and was a fish out of water in the Cleveland offense. New head coach Kevin Stefanski (who went on to be named the 2020 NFL Coach of the Year) instituted his run-heavy offense from Minnesota that heavily utilized the team’s talented backfield duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (only three teams threw the ball less often than Cleveland this year). This obviously took away a large percentage of opportunities from Cleveland’s talented receiver corps.
Unless fantasy football twitter is right (which would be a first) and Beckham does finally get traded this offseason, he will be returning to a very run-heavy Browns offense that will already have plenty of depth in the passing game. The writing may already be on the wall on this one, but the days of Beckham’s week-winning upside may be a thing of the past. I would just as soon take a shot on a younger guy and hope he pans out instead of hoping Beckham is able to turn the clock back to 2014 in the crowded Cleveland offense. He’s a solid depth hold if you have the luxury, but don’t be surprised if he takes a big shit on your chest.
Zach Ertz
Even in a historically down year for the tight end position, the contrast of Ertz’s season was made that much more evident by Travis Kelce deciding to go nuclear all season long and put up elite WR1 numbers. Fantasy football narratives are created and perpetuated so drastically over the course of a season, but how easy is it to forget that Ertz is actually younger than Kelce?
The 2020 season was pretty much a nightmare for the 29-year-old Ertz, as he limped his way to an abysmal 36/335/1 line while appearing in just eleven games. Ertz, usually Carson Wentz’s go-to security blanket when under distress, finished with an 85.7% true catch rate, a 19.7% target rate, and a brutal -6.3 EPA. With Philly seemingly undergoing a total rebuild (more like a rebrand), it is widely expected that Ertz finds a new home for the 2021 season, which could be just what he needs.
While not exactly a spring chicken, if Ertz finds himself in a good situation (the Bills almost make too much sense) then he could return some serious value, especially if the tight end position is as volatile as it was this year. He’s for sure a dart throw, and you should absolutely have a backup plan at the ready. Ertz could be a worthy dart throw to bring in to complement an already-contending roster. His final destination will have a major impact on the fantasy football landscape of the TE position.
