Tony Pollard is Screaming Sell High

Through eight weeks of the NFL season the Dallas Cowboys have seen a variety of ups and downs. They spent Week 9 on a bye; so let’s take a closer look at this backfield battle to determine if Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard provides more dynasty bang for your buck.

The Defending Champion (Ezekiel Elliott)

Ezekiel Elliott was drafted fourth overall in 2016. He played his college ball at Ohio State and was a highly celebrated prospect when the 2016 draft rolled around.

Now in his 7th NFL season, Elliott is 27 years old and has yet to finish as lower than RB12 in Half-PPR scoring. That’s correct, Elliott has been a RB1 for all six years of his career before entering this season.

Even during the seasons where managers considered him “washed” – where he battled injury – Elliott still managed to finish in the top 12.

This season Elliott is averaging 10.21 points per game in standard leagues and 11.07 points per game in PPR leagues. He currently sits as RB29 and 108th overall; despite once again battling a knee injury as well as the loss of Dak Prescott for essentially the first six weeks of the season.

Ezekiel Elliott is valued as dynasty RB35 on KTC with a super flex value of 2,808. He is RB27 in dynasty according to Fantasy Pros dynasty rankings and sits as RB23 in Fantasy Pros rest of season ECR with a projected point total of 85.5 points for his remaining games in 2022.

Elliott is currently signed through 2026 and is not slated to become an unrestricted free agent until 2027. His current base salary is $12,400,000 with a cap hit of $18,220,000 as per Spotrac.

The remaining years of his contract with see his cap hit decrease slightly to $16,700,000 in 2023, $14,320,000 in 2024, $17,120,000 in 2025 and $16,600,000 in 2026. Spotrac lists his potential team buy out year as following the 2023 season where they could conceivably  release him to save significant cap space.

The Challenger (Tony Pollard)

Tony Pollard was drafted in the 2019 NFL Draft. He was the 26th pick of Round 4. Pollard played his college ball at Memphis and was seen as a mid round pick with potential coming into the draft. Entering his 4th season in the NFL, Pollard is now 25 years old with a career best finish of RB28 in 2021. Pollard has seen slight upticks in usage over the previous years; and has trended upwards with finishes as RB53, RB 41 and RB28 coming into the 2022 season.

This offseason, Pollard has been the ‘sexy’ pick to supplant Elliott and take over the starting role. That had seen his draft stock shoot through the roof in fantasy drafts; as he routinely went with or before Elliott. So far in 2022, Pollard is averaging 11.59 points per game in standard scoring leagues and 13.09 points per game in full PPR scoring.

He currently sits as RB17 and 56th overall. His current rank has been buoyed by Zeke’s health issues as well as injury concerns with a good portion of the receiving corps. Pollard has seen a higher workload than any point in his career.

Tony Pollard is valued as dynasty RB18 on KTC with a super flex value of 4,507. He is RB24 in dynasty according to Fantasy Pros dynasty rankings and sits as RB22 in Fantasy Pros rest of season ECR with a projected point total of 88.2 points for his remaining games.

Pollard is currently signed through 2025. He will be a free agent in 2026 barring any extension. The current base salary of his contract is $495,000 with a cap hit of $661,945 as per Spotrac.

The remaining years of his contract with see his cap hit increase slightly to $841,945 in 2023, $1,016,945 in 2024 and $1,131,945 in 2025. Spotrac lists no tangible buy out year for his contract.

What Does It All Mean?

This is a very simple answer for me. The fantasy community – as it often does with rookies – sees limitless potential in backup running backs, and often write off starters at the first sign of adversity. This is the case here.

Managers have been quick to dismiss six years of elite fantasy production that no running back in history has replicated. Elliott is simply a victim of his own success.

While he may no longer be the perennial top 3 running back for fantasy it is clear to see that Zeke will remain a solid RB2 for this season and beyond

In his most recent game, Elliott was extremely limited with a knee injury. Pollard saw the lion’s share of the work; this led to several instances where Pollard could be visibly seen telling the Cowboys coaching staff that he needed to be taken out of the game for a breather.

Tony Pollard is simply not built to be a bell cow. Elliott is a unique breed who can carry the load even when battling injuries.

To make the case stronger, after Pollard’s breakout game the first quote from Cowboys owner Jerry Jones when asked about Tony Pollard’s role was “We gotta have Tony Pollard out there. No, seriously, Zeke’s gotta be our feature, and he is our feature”.

Asked simply about Pollard’s role going forward, Jones immediately poured cold water on the Tony Pollard truthers. He once again committed to Ezekiel Elliott as the team’s workhorse back.

This makes sense. After all, Jerry Jones signs the paychecks and is well aware of exactly what Ezekiel Elliott is owed. With the remaining years left on Elliott’s contract, the Cowboys simply have no choice but to ride him until the wheels fall off.

While fantasy managers seem to have reached a fever pitch with their excitement for Pollard in dynasty, I am of the belief that now is the time to sell at peak value.

With Elliott on the team through at least the 2023 season – and Pollard only two years younger – it is entirely conceivable that Pollard will spend the majority of his prime in a committee with Elliott. Even if the Cowboys were to release Elliott after the 2023 season, Tony Pollard would be almost 27; which most fantasy managers see as the dynasty cutoff to sell a running back before his value plummets.

Another important point to note is that while Elliott has a history of elite production and has only averaged 1.38 points per game less than Pollard this season, Pollard is currently being valued 17 spots higher than Elliott and at nearly 2,000 value points more. That’s basically double the cost for a healthy running back who is narrowly outproducing his injured backfield mate.

Admittedly, Pollard would be a 27 year old running back with significantly more tread left on the tires than Elliott had at 27. But do you really want to invest heavily in a committee running back who will be past his prime by the time he finally gets his chance to be the lead back?

I don’t. That’s why I am selling Tony Pollard now while his value is at a point it has never seen and likely will never see again.