Will Trey Lance or Brock Purdy be the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers this season?
The combination of quarterback potential and organizational backing has gone a long way to producing some of the most elite fantasy football players at the position in recent years. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and many others were far from sure-things as NFL draft prospects, yet each and every one of them came into the league with high ceilings. They were all drafted, supported, and developed by some of the league’s best franchises over the last five years. Now, it’s time for the next wave of QBs to find their footing. Namely, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers’ Dilemma – Trey Lance or Brock Purdy?
The San Francisco 49ers followed in their footsteps by embracing that model. They traded up to the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to select North Dakota State QB Trey Lance. They sat Lance behind incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo for a season. The 49ers then gave him the keys to the offense in year two. Unfortunately, Lance’s season-ending broken leg derailed their plans.
Another team, the Indianapolis Colts, also embraced the philosophy of moving all-in on a high-ceiling quarterback in Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Richardson was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. What he will become in the NFL remains to be seen, but the overall team investment and organizational backing is reminiscent of the 49ers. Lance also remained a QB1 in fantasy football dynasty leagues from the moment he was drafted to the moment he was injured. Richardson is currently a fringe dynasty QB1. He is regularly drafted as the 1.01 in Superflex formats, ahead of near-perfect RB prospect Bijan Robinson.
Fast forward to today. Trey Lance has fallen as far as third on San Francisco’s depth chart after a run of solid play last season by Brock Purdy, 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant. The team also signed free agent QB Sam Darnold to a one-year contract in free agency.
In this unique circumstance, I don’t believe this is a true zero-sum game. If either Purdy or Lance win the starting job (or in another outcome, Darnold), the loser should still be considered a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL. If not for Purdy’s surprisingly competent level of play in 2022 (which only came after unfortunate injuries to both Lance and backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo), Lance would likely be entering his third season with full backing from the 49ers. He’d also have an opportunity to finish as a QB1 in fantasy football due to his elite rushing upside.
The 49ers were extremely fortunate to have Purdy overperform in 2022 – when they were in injury hell and making a Super Bowl push. His play, however, may have won him organizational backing. General consensus suggests that Purdy is in line to be the team’s Week 1 starter. He may already have a lock on the job based on comments head coach Kyle Shanahan made earlier this offseason.
“I understand the unusual circumstances of when you trade up for a quarterback with the third pick in the draft. How you’re expecting him to be the man for a long time,” said Shanahan. “And we did expect that, and I still believe that he can be (that). You’re also not expecting the last pick in the draft to come in and play at that level… but Brock came in and did it. Now I truly believe Trey can go do that. But Brock’s already done it. And that’s a very good thing for us to have.”
Shanahan went on to say, “I truly believe in my heart what Trey can be,” among other positive statements.
Purdy’s emergence as a legit starting NFL quarterback is fantastic for the 49ers and puts them in a great position. Conventional wisdom suggests that once either Purdy or Lance takes control of the starting job for good, the other will likely be traded. At this point, Lance seems more likely of the two to be playing for another team in 2024.
Lance getting that organizational backing is inevitable in my opinion, whether it be from the 49ers or another team. Two candidates that come to mind are the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons. The Commanders hired offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy from the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason. Bieniemy had an elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes running his offense for years, and could be seeking an upgrade over fifth-round pick Sam Howell.
Lance also seems like an obvious fit in Atlanta. After all, Head Coach Arthur Smith is as committed to running the ball as anyone in the league.
Purdy and Lance are both likely long-term starters in the NFL. Purdy appears to have the inside track on the 49ers job. That would be great for Purdy’s fantasy football outlook and his career as a whole, but that doesn’t mean that Lance is a bust. In fact, Lance is arguably still a huge buy in dynasty due to his uncertain future depressing his value. Purdy is also a value due to his UCL injury and the presence of Lance.
When Purdy is healthy, and assuming the consensus belief that he will retain the No. 1 spot on the 49ers’ depth chart is true, he will be a fantastic QB2 in fantasy football. When Lance eventually receives organizational backing, he will also be a fantastic QB2 in dynasty with the upside.
I also wouldn’t rule out Lance being the 49ers’ Week 1 and 2023 starting quarterback. He absolutely could beat Purdy outright in training camp. This is possible because Purdy should naturally regress and is still recovering from his UCL injury. If that were to happen, Lance’s stock would shoot up once again into the fringe QB1 range.
Elijah Southwick
Elijah Southwick is a professional writer, editor and content creator covering sports news and fantasy football. He is a contributing writer for The League Winners and Lead Sports Content Writer at Degen Magazine.