UConn Huskies vs. Ball State Cardinals 2025 Preview: Keys to the Game and Prediction

The UConn Huskies (1-2) are back at it at Rentschler Field on Saturday afternoon vs. the Ball State Cardinals (1-2) in one of their two MAC showdowns in 2025.

After a 9-4 season in 2024, Huskies fans packed The Rent in the season opener against Central Connecticut State, where they cruised by with a 59-17 victory. Into FBS play, however, similar success hasn’t followed. They blew an eleven point lead with 10 minutes to go against Syracuse, before allowing 44 points in an overtime loss to Delaware. Now, UConn hopes to regroup as a major favorite back on their home turf.

As for Ball State, power-schools Purdue and Auburn clobbered them in the first two weeks. Although, they regained some momentum with a tight win last week against New Hampshire. But that’s an FCS school. Both teams look for their first FBS win of the season on Saturday. Will it be Connecticut to get back on track, or will Ball State upset the Huskies?

UConn Huskies vs. Ball State Cardinals: Matchup History

Despite playing in different conferences, the Huskies and Cardinals have played each other a few times. Though, each matchup has favored Ball State. As the Huskies made the transition into FBS from 2000-to-2002, the Cardinals came up with three wins in three consecutive seasons over UConn. Two of those were by one score.

But after another 20 years, these teams crossed paths again at Ball State, where the Cardinals came away with a 25-21 win over UConn in their first season under Jim Mora. In that game, the Huskies got off to a 21-10 start through two quarters, though watched it slip through their fingertips in the second half. Connecticut would later go on to win six games and make their first Bowl game since 2015. But the Cardinals had the upper hand in this matchup.

In the modern era of college football, three years ago feels like an eternity, as only a few Huskies from 2022 are still apart of the team. However, for Mora, running back Victor Rosa, wide receiver Jackson Mitchell, and a few others, Saturday’s game is an opportunity for revenge.

UConn vs. Ball State 2025: Keys to the Game and Predictions

Key Players for Ball State

While the Cardinals come in as a major underdog, they have some individual talents who will need to step up if they want to see success come their way. That starts defensively with defensive end Nick Voorhis and linebacker Alfred Chea. Both have been focal points of the defensive attack.

Voorhis is eighth in the country in sacks with 3.5, collecting a bag in each of his first three games. He’s also forced a fumble. For Chea, he’s been one of the team’s defensive anchors, leading the team with 13 tackles and nine solo tackles. And to add smoke to the fire, they’re both former Huskies. Chea was a four-year contributor for UConn before transferring this past offseason. As for Voorhis, he spent 2022 and 2023 with UConn, and now is rolling up the sleeves for the Cardinals.

And offensively, this team is solely dependent on its rushing attack. Running back Qua Ashley hopes to have a big day on the ground for Ball State. While he has run for just 209 yards through three games, he’s been given only 34 carries and scored two touchdowns. His 6.1 yards per carry is among the highest in the FBS. If he can get things going on the ground, it will help make things happen for quarterback Kiael Kelly through the air.

Key Players for Connecticut

The Huskies come into this game 1-2 and have lost full momentum after a near 2-0 start. Some maybe saw a 6-0 path very possible when they controlled a two-score fourth quarter lead at JMA Wireless Dome two weeks ago. But now, the goal for UConn is to simply make sure the wheels don’t fall off from here. They need to secure a victory to get back on track before a tough road game against Buffalo next week.

If the Huskies want to come away with a win, they’ll need to see more in a larger role from Victor Rosa, who thrived in 2022 against Ball State. He ran for 72 yards in the contest, but has since lost his RB1 duties. However, with Mel Brown sidelined at least six-to-eight weeks due to a broken collarbone, Rosa will be one of the lead tailbacks. In his limited time thus far, he’s thrived. But now with a larger opportunity, Rosa could explode in Week 4.

But defensively, all of the attention is rightfully on linebacker Byrun Parham after a miraculous start to 2025. He has five sacks in three games, tied for the most in all of college football. He’s also collected seven tackles for loss. After minimal production with Washington in 2024, Parham is now with the Huskies and making a name for himself. Is this incredible start a fluke? I don’t believe so. And against a Ball State offense that has given up eleven sacks – the third most in the country – Parham could be due for another strong performance.

How Ball State Wins

Even though they enter the game as 20.5-point underdog, there is no reason why the Cardinals should believe a win on the road is unattainable. In fact, it’s quite possible. UConn has clearly lost control of its season, and Ball State has enough individual talent to make some noise. But they’ll need to play a near flawless football game to come away victorious.

Offensively, they need to make things happen on the ground. The Huskies haven’t done all-too-well against the run this season, and their limitations trying to contain running back Jo Silver contributed to their loss against the Blue Hens last week. The Cardinals will utilize Ashley to try and get things going on the ground, but they’ll also need the quarterback Kelly to become more efficient. He likes to scramble, and has the intangibles to be a dual-threat asset. But on a team-high 50 carries, he’s run for just 2.9 yards per rush.

And defensively, they need to force turnovers and negative plays out of quarterback Joe Fagnano. While Fagnano has his limitations as a passer, he’s always done one thing at a high level: take care of the football and avoid sacks. His 20 touchdowns to four interceptions was one of the best ratios in the country last year, and he’s yet to cough a football away in 2025. He’s also only been taken down three times behind the line of scrimmage. Ball State hasn’t forced an interception yet this season, but they have forced five fumbles, a total among the highest in the league. Their 10 sacks are also the 16th highest in the country. If they can force a negative play or two out of Fagnano, an upset becomes a realistic possibility.

How UConn Wins

The Huskies have been here before, with the game for the taking. A win percentage above 90-percent against Syracuse. A near-double digit point spread on the road against Delaware. These are opportunities UConn has given up before. If they want to return to .500, than they’ll need to play a crisp style of football on both ends, even if Ball State has their setbacks.

In a game where the talent separation is evidently clear, Connecticut should lean on its stars. Statistically, they have many creators on both ends who are towards the top of statistical categories. Among all quarterbacks with 100+ attempts, Fagnano is ninth in completion rate and twelfth in passing yardage. Running back Cam Edwards is 14th in the country in rushing yardage. Wide receiver Skyler Bell is seventh in receiving yardage. Parham leads all in sacks. Even D’Mon Brinson is tenth in FBS with four pass breakups. UConn boasts high-level talent. They should utilize their strengths to the best of their ability against an opponent that’s yet to prove they should be taken seriously.

And the Huskies should also try and get off to a hot start. While Nick Minicucci played a great game last week for Delaware, a lot of opportunities opened up for him because the threat of the run with Silver was prominent. If he were forced to pass, he would have suffered far more complications quarterbacking the offense. The easiest way to shut down the run in football is to take a large lead early, and force opposing offenses to have to go away from its ground game because of how much time it takes to develop. At Ball State, Kelly has thrown only 47 passes and has actually run more times than he has passed. But if he is forced to make the big play down the field with his arm, the Huskies will eat him alive.

Prediction

While the chances are minuscule, head coach Mike Uremovich and the Cardinals have an opportunity to make some noise. If recent letdowns continue to carry into the following week, UConn may find its third loss come in another heartbreaking way. However, this Huskies team is too far too superior to lose this type of game at home. I think Connecticut gets back on track with a strong victory at The Rent.

Bold Prediction

UConn gives up less than ten first downs for the first time since Week 4 of 2024 against Florida Atlantic.