UConn vs. Buffalo 2025 Preview: Key Matchups and Predictions

After an exhilarating 31-25 win, an important one at that, against Ball State, the UConn Huskies travel to Buffalo to face the Bulls in a very crucial clash. The Huskies look to improve above .500 after two rough losses to Syracuse and Delaware in weeks two and three. For Buffalo, they’ll look to respond after a disappointing home loss to Troy. 

Which program will have the upper hand, Connecticut or Buffalo?

UConn Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls: Matchup History

The Huskies and Bulls have faced off 16 times all-time, though it’s been a lopsided state of affairs. UConn is 14-2 all-time, which includes winning in nine of its past ten head-to-head matchups. The Huskies have only scored fewer than 20 points twice in the 16 games, while the Bulls have done it just six times.

However, the individual affair that stands out above the rest was Connecticut’s 47-3 demolition over Buffalo at home just last year. This came one week after decimating Florida Atlantic, and carried their success into their most productive win under Jim Mora. However, both teams look a lot different. Skyler Bell and Cam Edwards have emerged as greater offensive threats, Joe Fagnano has officially overtaken Nick Evers for the starting QB position, and the Huskies’ defense roster a relatively new cast. 

So, only so much can be taken from last year’s exclamation point for Connecticut, and a damper for Buffalo. “Last year is irrelevant,” UConn head coach Jim Mora said. “They’re a different team. They pose a significant challenge.” 

The Bulls do have a ton of new pieces, including quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, who led the Huskies’ offense in 2023 before entering the transfer portal. 

UCONN vs. Buffalo 2025 Preview

Key Players for Buffalo

The Bulls enter this game as a slight underdog at home, but will need high-level performances from some of its premier stars if they want to go back above .500. That’ll start with quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, the former Connecticut QB now lacing up with the Bulls. Roberson is now on his fourth team in four years, beginning at Penn State before transferring to UConn. Last year, he backed up Avery Johnson at Kansas State, and now he is the starter with Buffalo.

So Roberson comes with experience, which is why he’s limited turnovers and negative plays thus far. But he also hasn’t made many big plays through the air or on the ground that have elevated the group offensively. He’ll need to come up with the big plays downfield if the Bulls want a chance. 

And defensively, Buffalo’s front seven is hard to grapple with. Linebacker Red Murdock and defensive end Kobe Stewart need to have big days. Murdock comes off of a stellar 2024 in which he accumulated 156 tackles—second highest in the FBS—while leading the FBS in forced fumbles with 7. He is now fifth all time in collegiate forced fumbles.

As for Stewart, he led the MAC in sacks last season with 9.5, and is the team leader thus far with 2.5. He’ll try his best to get to Fagnano, who has been sacked just three times in four games. 

Key Players for UConn

The Huskies prepare for battle against a Buffalo team in which they clobbered a season ago. But the Bulls are improved, and the Huskies will need their stars to perform at a high level. To me, this reads as possibly a statement game for quarterback Joe Fagnano in his seventh and final collegiate season.

Fagnano has been incredible for UConn, completing over 66% of his passes for seven total touchdowns and zero turnovers. He’s been efficient, and has eliminated the negative plays. His experience adds a whole other element. 

“Joe’s an experienced guy,” wide receiver Skyler Bell said. “Having him there, he eases the pressure a little bit, so when he comes out on game day and does it it’s nothing new for anybody.” 

However, Roberson has thrown just two interceptions this season, and also comes in as a veteran. So Fagnano needs to make sure he’s the better, and more consistent, quarterback in this matchup. 

UConn should also look for a big day from defensive back D’Mon Brinson. The four year collegiate veteran with Connecticut has improved drastically in each campaign, and is having a career-year in his senior season. In just four games, Brinson has intercepted a pass, recorded 17 combined tackles, and defended four passes to rank among the FBS leaders. While the Huskies have other reliable components, Brinson is a vital part of the secondary. If he has a strong day, the Huskies could pull away. 

How Buffalo Wins

Even though they’re an underdog, the Bulls will easily win if they can find success on the ground. Theoretically, that shouldn’t be a problem for Buffalo, as running back Al-Jay Henderson ran for over 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns last year. However, even with a MAC-high 72 carries, he has gained just 274 yards, averaging under four yards per attempt. On the other hand, the Huskies have done a horrific job against the run. They let Jo Silver run for 179 yards in a Week 3 loss at Delaware, while Qua Ashley ran for 86 yards and a score last week. UConn’s defense has suffered the consequences in both games. If the Bulls can find success on the ground, they’ll put up points and at least keep the game tight.

How UConn Wins

The Huskies need to tighten things up on their two-minute defense. Offensively, Mora can count on his group to put up points. They went for 59 against Central Connecticut State, 20 against Syracuse, 41 against Delaware and 31 last week. With Skyler Bell–who is second in the country in receptions and third yards–as well as Cam Edwards, who’s sixth in FBS in rushing yardage, they have an explosive group. But defensively, year two under defensive coordinator Matt Brock hasn’t brought as much success as 2024.

With nine new defensive starters, UConn has given up 25+ in three straight games, and have struggled in one key area: two-minute defense. The Orange drove down the field and won the game down the stretch, as did Delaware. And while Connecticut pulled away last week, Ball State made a jubilant effort trying to erase a two-score deficit. According to Mora, the Huskies are yet to stop a team in a two-minute drill. In a game projected to be closely fought, the Huskies must adjust defensively in the final moments.

“We have not yet got a stop in a two minute situation,” Mora shared after their win last week. “It makes a game that shouldn’t be close, close. That’s my number one concern.”

Prediction

The jury is still out on whether this UConn team is as prolific as its 2024 group, which won nine games and won the Fenway Bowl. This will be a tough road test, where fans will quickly learn more about whether this team is legit. And I think they’ll endure more issues than some may want to admit. The Bulls have a formidable defensive attack, while the Huskies could have trouble containing the run-first offense. I think Buffalo wins in the final moments, and hands UConn its third loss of 2025.

Bold Prediction

Connecticut’s Byrun Parham, who is second in the FBS with 5.5 sacks, collects 2+ QB takedowns for a second time this season.