Saturday, May 1st, two UFC light heavyweight contenders clash at the Apex in Las Vegas.
After UFC261 last Saturday, this week’s event has a huge shadow to fill. Thankfully, this UFC card is stacked with a lot of talent, especially on the Main Card.
Poliana Botelho (8-3) vs Luana Carolina (6-2)
Kicking off the main card on this UFC Fight Night are two Brazilian flyweights in the women’s divsion, Poliana Botelho (-220) and Luana Carolina (+165).
Botelho has good striking but a mediocre ground game, relying on power rather than technique to escape from bad positions on the ground. Fortunately for her, Luana isn’t much of a threat to force a takedown. This should be a striking match that should solely favor Botelho. Luana doesn’t move her head off of the center line and leaves her chin out with no regard for safety when throwing strikes. Botelho’s technique should prevail.
What Carolina lacks in technique, she makes up for with power. She’s still quite a raw prospect, but has the strength to finish opponents. When she strikes she throws a barrage of punches, disorientating opponents allowing for heavier shots to connect. If she can establish this gameplan and avoid the big shots, she has a chance to pull off the upset.
Winner: Poliana Botelho (-220)
Merab Dvalishvili (12-4) vs Cody Stamann (19-3-1)
This matchup features two ranked wrestlers in the bantamweight division. #12 Merab Dvalishvili (-225) and #13 Cody Stamann (+175) were slated to face each other two times prior to this, but those bouts fell through.
Merab has been on a tear since starting his UFC career with two losses, now winning five straight against good competition. He has an otherworldly pace, understands spacing well, and suffocates opponents with wrestling until they fatigue and concede. Stamann tends to leave his head on the center line, so if Merab is able to keep a stiff jab it will find a home and disguise potential level changes.
Stamann has an excellent combination of striking and wrestling. Cody throws everything into his shots, and has the power advantage in this matchup. On occasion Merab can be too relaxed with his striking defense, creating opportunities for Stamann to land powerful shots. I don’t believe his wrestling will be a threat to Merab, but his power can create a lane for victory.
I believe Dvalishvili’s pace will prove to be too much for Stamann, eventually wearing him down in a grueling three round decision.
Winner: Merab Dvalishvili (-225)
Sean Strickland (22-3) vs Krzysztof Jotko (22-4)
Next up is a middleweight bout between Sean Strickland (-250) and Krzysztof Jotko (+195). Strickland is the largest betting favorite on the main card at the time of writing.
Since moving up to middleweight, Sean Strickland has looked like a renewed fighter. The game seems to have slowed down for him and he’s seeing things incredibly well. He’s become more aggressive and is fighting off of his back foot less often. His unorthodox striking style causes plenty of problems for his opponents; what looks like arm punches have shown to create incredible power and accuracy in his standup game.
While Jotko doesn’t do anything particularly elite, he’s an incredibly intelligent fighter who brings an excellent gameplan into the octagon for every fight. He’s been fighting off his back foot recently, and Strickland will probably force him to do the same in this matchup. The second biggest underdog on the card, I believe this fight is a lot closer than the line indicates. Jotko will probably try to clinch and take this fight to the ground to win on points.
Strickland is the heavy favorite, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jotko pull out the win.
Winner: Sean Strickland (-250)
Ion Cutelaba (15-6, 1NC) vs Dustin Jacoby (14-5)
We have another light heavyweight bout, between Ion Cutelaba (-140) and Dustin Jacoby (+114). Cutelaba is looking to bounce back after back-to-back TKO losses against Magomed Ankalaev.
Cutelaba can have a propensity to get caught up in brawls, but his avenue for success against Jacoby will be with his wrestling. Prior to his two losses, we saw Cutelaba completely dismantle Khalil Rountree with vicious ground and pound. Cutelaba’s aggresiveness should create opportunities for clinch work and takedowns. Without a wrestling threat on the other end, be prepared for him to establish this gameplan.
Dustin Jacoby is having himself a nice redemption tour in his second stint in the UFC. Currently riding a three fight win streak, Jacoby looks much improved during his time away from the organization. His length and crisp striking could cause problems for Cutelaba, and if he turns it into a kickboxing match he has a good chance of winning. He hasn’t faced much competition in the grappling department though, which could spell for a long night.
This fight should lead to a TKO one way or another and is one of the more exciting bouts on the card.
Pick: Ion Cutelaba (-140)
Giga Chikadze (12-2) vs Cub Swanson (27-11)
This matchup features featherweights, as rising star Giga Chikadze (-200) faces veteran and fan favorite, Cub Swanson (+160). Chikadze has been on a tear as of late, winning his last seven fights. He’s been asking for a rise in competition and has it against Swanson.
After suffering an ACL and meniscus tear at Quintet in 2019, Swanson came back with a vicious TKO of Daniel Pineda at UFC256. Swanson has shown resiliance in his recent fights, but has had trouble against elite strikers in previous bouts.
Chikadze is the betting favorite for a reason. His technique is incredible, and seems to get better with each performance. His length will make it hard for Cub to cover distance, and Chikadze will be fine picking from the outside. Whether it’s a chess match or a war, Swanson will have his hands full. It’s hard to see where an advantage lies for Cub, as this match may look like the passing of the guard.
Pick: Giga Chikadze (-200)
Reyes (12-2) vs Prochazka (27-3-1)
The main event is a light heavyweight matchup between #3 Dominick Reyes and #5 Jiri Prochazka. Reyes is coming off of back-to-back losses against former champion Jon Jones, and current champion Jan Blachowicz; both in championship bouts.
In his match against Jan, Reyes was aggressive in the early portion of the first two rounds and found success. But after multiple kicks to the ribs, it seemed to hinder his movement and confidence.
On the flip side, Jiri was playing with fire in his UFC debut against Volkan Oezdemir. Jiri sported a lot of showmanship, enticing Volkan to play in the flames with him. His antagonizing paid off. While it seemed Jiri was dazed by a few punches, he was also doing damage on the other end; leading to walk-off KO.
Currently, Jiri is the betting favorite coming in at -134, with Reyes a slight underdog at +110. Reyes needs to avoid falling victim to Jiri’s trash talk and utilize his athletcism if he wishes to come out with a win. Unfortunately, I think Jiri’s length and power will give Reyes a hard time, leading to an eventual finish.
Pick: Jiri Prochazka (-134)
