The NFL season is finally upon us, meaning weekly contests are back on Underdog and other sites. As you may know, Underdog is different than other DFS sites. You have to draft your weekly teams rather than keep them in a salary range. The contests for Week 1 just released, and there is some good value on the board. Week 1 will be impacted mainly by injuries and the data we have; as we have nothing to go off for this season besides betting lines and data from last year. We’ll be looking at player values for Underdog Battle Royale and is for the new live draft qualifiers that begin this week.
Best Value QB: Tua Tagovailoa ADP QB7
When your game total is the highest on the slate and second on the week, you would expect the quarterbacks for both teams to get routinely drafted. Well, we can only say that for Justin Herbert, not Tua Tagovailoa. He is currently QB7 in six-person drafts. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I want as much of it as possible in my Underdog Battle Royale lineups. This matchup has no shortage of studs, and Tua is the easiest to draft out of any major player in this Week 1 showdown.
Worst value QB: Lamar Jackson: ADP QB1
Did you know that the Houston Texans gave up the least fantasy points to the quarterback position in 2022? It is because they give up the most to running backs. In all seriousness, I had limited options, and I am only out on Lamar Jackson due to ADP being around running backs I would take instead – Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, and Nick Chubb, to name a few. The chance of a ceiling performance is still present for Lamar; but with the largest spread, I worry they will blow the Texans out and Lamar will have his touchdowns vultured.
Best value RB: Aaron Jones ADP RB9
Aaron Jones will get the second-worst fantasy defense against the run in 2022 to open the season. It looks to be a smash spot for Jones, especially when you factor in the quarterback situation. The Chicago Bears made no significant upgrades on the line but addressed the linebacker position.
However, according to PFF, Tremaine Edmunds was poor against the run last year. The same is not valid for T.J. Edwards, who was impressive for the Philadelphia Eagles last season. The Green Bay Packers coaching staff will ease Jordan Love into his first game, and Jones will be a big part of that. I see a big Week 1 for the Packers running back.
Jordan Love ➡️ Aaron Jones
(🎥via @packers) pic.twitter.com/LHl9uzBWUI
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 31, 2023
Worst value RB: Rhamondre Stevenson ADP RB12
This choice has all to do with the matchup, not the player. The Eagles added notable talent to the defensive line this offseason with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. We also have yet to determine the role Ezekiel Elliott will play in the New England Patriots‘ backfield, and this could be a potential dud spot for Rhamondre Stevenson. The Eagles were middle of the road when giving up points to the running back position. However, the pivot is the better option when you have better situations around him, like Raheem Mostert and Joe Mixon.
Best Value WR: Jahan Dotson ADP WR15
After the preseason, his ADP should be higher. Jahan Dotson is a perfect candidate for the second-year breakout. Sam Howell was looking his way plenty in the preseason. Now, he gets a cakewalk matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Terry McLaurin may not suit up with a toe injury. Dotson has the perfect scenario to be a League Winner in Week 1. They have the slate’s lowest game total, but that does not concern me.
20% of Jahan Dotson's catches in 2022 were TDs
He was also #6 in Points per Target and #3 specifically against Man Coverage
Will he score more than 7 TDs in his sophomore campaign? pic.twitter.com/PQ0v3WdmE2
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) August 25, 2023
Worst value WR Calvin Ridley ADP WR5
I am excited to watch Calvin Ridley suit up for the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, I would rather avoid paying the price of WR5 for him. With Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, and Keenan Allen behind him, I need to see it before I believe it with Ridley. There might need to be some rust shaken off in regular-season action. If he is anything like his metrics suggested before the suspension, this was a huge mistake, but only time will tell. I also share the same concern with Lamar Jackson, as the Jaguars are a better team than the Colts. With the spread at 4.5 points, it is less of a risk here.
Best value TE: Tyler Higbee ADP TE6
With the Cooper Kupp injury, Tyler Higbee is in position to rack up targets in Week 1. He also has quite the matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who gave up the second-most points to the position last season. With Matthew Stafford back and the Los Angeles Rams projected to be playing from behind, I like Higbee to post a top-three week at an ADP of TE6.
If #Rams WR Cooper Kupp misses games, WR Van Jefferson takes over as WR1, per @JourdanRodrigue
This is how the Rams offense looks like without Kupp:
QB: Matthew Stafford
WR1: Van Jefferson
WR2: Tutu Atwell
WR3: Puka Nacua
WR4: Ben Skowronek
TE1: Tyler Higbee
RB1: Cam Akers… https://t.co/4zC3Pxsw1b pic.twitter.com/9bXVw42Zho— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 1, 2023
Worst Value TE: Kyle Pitts ADP TE7
As much as it saddens me to write this, it is just a fact that Kyle Pitts will be the number three option come Sunday. It will also be a low-scoring affair against the Carolina Panthers. Better days are ahead for Pitts, but with the Atlanta Falcons having the second-lowest passing attempts last year, it’s unlikely happen this season. Also, Pitts is coming off ACL surgery, and those videos from camp weren’t reassuring. I will be fading Pitts in the Underdog Battle Royale this week.
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